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Article: Factors that make an infectious disease outbreak controllable

TitleFactors that make an infectious disease outbreak controllable
Authors
Issue Date2004
PublisherNational Academy of Sciences. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.pnas.org
Citation
Proceedings Of The National Academy Of Sciences Of The United States Of America, 2004, v. 101 n. 16, p. 6146-6151 How to Cite?
AbstractThe aim of this study is to identify general properties of emerging infectious agents that determine the likely success of two simple public health measures in controlling outbreaks, namely (i) isolating symptomatic individuals and (ii) tracing and quarantining their contacts. Because these measures depend on the recognition of specific disease symptoms, we investigate the relative timing of infectiousness and the appearance of symptoms by using a mathematical model. We show that the success of these control measures is determined as much by the proportion of transmission occurring prior to the onset of overt clinical symptoms (or via asymptomatic infection) as the inherent transmissibility of the etiological agent (measured by the reproductive number R0). From published studies, we estimate these quantities for two moderately transmissible viruses, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus and HIV, and for two highly transmissible viruses, smallpox and pandemic influenza. We conclude that severe acute respiratory syndrome and smallpox are easier to control using these simple public health measures. Direct estimation of the proportion of asymptomatic and presymptomatic infections is achievable by contact tracing and should be a priority during an outbreak of a novel infectious agent.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/151604
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 9.423
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 6.883
ISI Accession Number ID
References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorFraser, Cen_US
dc.contributor.authorRiley, Sen_US
dc.contributor.authorAnderson, RMen_US
dc.contributor.authorFerguson, NMen_US
dc.date.accessioned2012-06-26T06:25:22Z-
dc.date.available2012-06-26T06:25:22Z-
dc.date.issued2004en_US
dc.identifier.citationProceedings Of The National Academy Of Sciences Of The United States Of America, 2004, v. 101 n. 16, p. 6146-6151en_US
dc.identifier.issn0027-8424en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/151604-
dc.description.abstractThe aim of this study is to identify general properties of emerging infectious agents that determine the likely success of two simple public health measures in controlling outbreaks, namely (i) isolating symptomatic individuals and (ii) tracing and quarantining their contacts. Because these measures depend on the recognition of specific disease symptoms, we investigate the relative timing of infectiousness and the appearance of symptoms by using a mathematical model. We show that the success of these control measures is determined as much by the proportion of transmission occurring prior to the onset of overt clinical symptoms (or via asymptomatic infection) as the inherent transmissibility of the etiological agent (measured by the reproductive number R0). From published studies, we estimate these quantities for two moderately transmissible viruses, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus and HIV, and for two highly transmissible viruses, smallpox and pandemic influenza. We conclude that severe acute respiratory syndrome and smallpox are easier to control using these simple public health measures. Direct estimation of the proportion of asymptomatic and presymptomatic infections is achievable by contact tracing and should be a priority during an outbreak of a novel infectious agent.en_US
dc.languageengen_US
dc.publisherNational Academy of Sciences. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.pnas.orgen_US
dc.relation.ispartofProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of Americaen_US
dc.subject.meshCommunicable Diseases, Emerging - Epidemiology - Prevention & Controlen_US
dc.subject.meshDisease Outbreaks - Prevention & Controlen_US
dc.subject.meshHumansen_US
dc.subject.meshModels, Theoreticalen_US
dc.subject.meshPatient Isolationen_US
dc.subject.meshVirus Diseases - Epidemiology - Prevention & Controlen_US
dc.titleFactors that make an infectious disease outbreak controllableen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.identifier.emailRiley, S:sriley@hkucc.hku.hk, steven.riley@hku.hken_US
dc.identifier.authorityRiley, S=rp00511en_US
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltexten_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1073/pnas.0307506101en_US
dc.identifier.pmid15071187-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-1942501653en_US
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-1942501653&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_US
dc.identifier.volume101en_US
dc.identifier.issue16en_US
dc.identifier.spage6146en_US
dc.identifier.epage6151en_US
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000220978000084-
dc.publisher.placeUnited Statesen_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridFraser, C=35460815100en_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridRiley, S=7102619416en_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridAnderson, RM=7408244444en_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridFerguson, NM=7103246319en_US
dc.identifier.citeulike6792034-

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