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Article: A fuzzy simulation model for evaluating the concession items of public-private partnership schemes
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TitleA fuzzy simulation model for evaluating the concession items of public-private partnership schemes
 
AuthorsThomas Ng, S1
Xie, J1
Skitmore, M2
Cheung, YK1
 
KeywordsConcession Period
Fuzzy Sets
Public-Private Partnership
Simulation
Tariff Regime
 
Issue Date2007
 
PublisherElsevier BV. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.elsevier.com/locate/autcon
 
CitationAutomation In Construction, 2007, v. 17 n. 1, p. 22-29 [How to Cite?]
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.autcon.2007.02.010
 
AbstractThe investment return, tariff regime and concession period are the most important items that influence the success of a concession-based public-private partnership (PPP) project. From the public partner's perspective, whether a scheme is value-for-money or not dominates the decision-making process. However, a seemingly favorable deal may turn out to be the least value-for-money option should it cause unnecessary social upheaval, such as excessive tariff increases or complaints. A scheme which is truly value-for-money is one which balances the interests of the public partner, investor and end-users. In this paper, a simulation model is proposed to assist a public partner to identify the concession period based on the expected investment and tariff regime. The needs for establishing different scenarios to represent the risks and uncertainties involved are presented, and a fuzzy multi-objective decision model is introduced to trade-off the associated three concession items. The combined features of the simulation and fuzzy multi-objective decision models enable the scenario most likely to result in a "win-win-win" concession scheme to be identified. A hypothetical example is used to illustrate the proposed model. This highlights the importance of the decision-makers' perception of the concession items in influencing their selection, and the influence of the group decision-making involved. © 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
 
ISSN0926-5805
2013 Impact Factor: 1.822
2013 SCImago Journal Rankings: 1.411
 
DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.autcon.2007.02.010
 
ISI Accession Number IDWOS:000250433300003
 
ReferencesReferences in Scopus
 
DC FieldValue
dc.contributor.authorThomas Ng, S
 
dc.contributor.authorXie, J
 
dc.contributor.authorSkitmore, M
 
dc.contributor.authorCheung, YK
 
dc.date.accessioned2012-06-26T06:04:36Z
 
dc.date.available2012-06-26T06:04:36Z
 
dc.date.issued2007
 
dc.description.abstractThe investment return, tariff regime and concession period are the most important items that influence the success of a concession-based public-private partnership (PPP) project. From the public partner's perspective, whether a scheme is value-for-money or not dominates the decision-making process. However, a seemingly favorable deal may turn out to be the least value-for-money option should it cause unnecessary social upheaval, such as excessive tariff increases or complaints. A scheme which is truly value-for-money is one which balances the interests of the public partner, investor and end-users. In this paper, a simulation model is proposed to assist a public partner to identify the concession period based on the expected investment and tariff regime. The needs for establishing different scenarios to represent the risks and uncertainties involved are presented, and a fuzzy multi-objective decision model is introduced to trade-off the associated three concession items. The combined features of the simulation and fuzzy multi-objective decision models enable the scenario most likely to result in a "win-win-win" concession scheme to be identified. A hypothetical example is used to illustrate the proposed model. This highlights the importance of the decision-makers' perception of the concession items in influencing their selection, and the influence of the group decision-making involved. © 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
 
dc.description.natureLink_to_subscribed_fulltext
 
dc.identifier.citationAutomation In Construction, 2007, v. 17 n. 1, p. 22-29 [How to Cite?]
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.autcon.2007.02.010
 
dc.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.autcon.2007.02.010
 
dc.identifier.epage29
 
dc.identifier.hkuros142790
 
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000250433300003
 
dc.identifier.issn0926-5805
2013 Impact Factor: 1.822
2013 SCImago Journal Rankings: 1.411
 
dc.identifier.issue1
 
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-34547728279
 
dc.identifier.spage22
 
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/150421
 
dc.identifier.volume17
 
dc.languageeng
 
dc.publisherElsevier BV. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.elsevier.com/locate/autcon
 
dc.publisher.placeNetherlands
 
dc.relation.ispartofAutomation in Construction
 
dc.relation.referencesReferences in Scopus
 
dc.rightsAutomation in Construction. Copyright © Elsevier BV.
 
dc.subjectConcession Period
 
dc.subjectFuzzy Sets
 
dc.subjectPublic-Private Partnership
 
dc.subjectSimulation
 
dc.subjectTariff Regime
 
dc.titleA fuzzy simulation model for evaluating the concession items of public-private partnership schemes
 
dc.typeArticle
 
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Author Affiliations
  1. The University of Hong Kong
  2. Queensland University of Technology