Article: A fuzzy simulation model for evaluating the concession items of public-private partnership schemes

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TitleA fuzzy simulation model for evaluating the concession items of public-private partnership schemes
AuthorsThomas Ng, S1
Xie, J1
Skitmore, M2
Cheung, YK1
KeywordsConcession Period
Fuzzy Sets
Public-Private Partnership
Simulation
Tariff Regime
Issue Date2007
PublisherElsevier BV. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.elsevier.com/locate/autcon
CitationAutomation In Construction, 2007, v. 17 n. 1, p. 22-29 [How to Cite?]
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.autcon.2007.02.010
AbstractThe investment return, tariff regime and concession period are the most important items that influence the success of a concession-based public-private partnership (PPP) project. From the public partner's perspective, whether a scheme is value-for-money or not dominates the decision-making process. However, a seemingly favorable deal may turn out to be the least value-for-money option should it cause unnecessary social upheaval, such as excessive tariff increases or complaints. A scheme which is truly value-for-money is one which balances the interests of the public partner, investor and end-users. In this paper, a simulation model is proposed to assist a public partner to identify the concession period based on the expected investment and tariff regime. The needs for establishing different scenarios to represent the risks and uncertainties involved are presented, and a fuzzy multi-objective decision model is introduced to trade-off the associated three concession items. The combined features of the simulation and fuzzy multi-objective decision models enable the scenario most likely to result in a "win-win-win" concession scheme to be identified. A hypothetical example is used to illustrate the proposed model. This highlights the importance of the decision-makers' perception of the concession items in influencing their selection, and the influence of the group decision-making involved. © 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
ISSN0926-5805
2011 Impact Factor: 1.5
2011 SCImago Journal Rankings: 0.054
DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.autcon.2007.02.010
ISI Accession Number IDWOS:000250433300003
ReferencesReferences in Scopus
DC Field
Value
dc.contributor.authorThomas Ng, S
dc.contributor.authorXie, J
dc.contributor.authorSkitmore, M
dc.contributor.authorCheung, YK
dc.date.accessioned2012-06-26T06:04:36Z
dc.date.available2012-06-26T06:04:36Z
dc.date.issued2007
dc.description.abstractThe investment return, tariff regime and concession period are the most important items that influence the success of a concession-based public-private partnership (PPP) project. From the public partner's perspective, whether a scheme is value-for-money or not dominates the decision-making process. However, a seemingly favorable deal may turn out to be the least value-for-money option should it cause unnecessary social upheaval, such as excessive tariff increases or complaints. A scheme which is truly value-for-money is one which balances the interests of the public partner, investor and end-users. In this paper, a simulation model is proposed to assist a public partner to identify the concession period based on the expected investment and tariff regime. The needs for establishing different scenarios to represent the risks and uncertainties involved are presented, and a fuzzy multi-objective decision model is introduced to trade-off the associated three concession items. The combined features of the simulation and fuzzy multi-objective decision models enable the scenario most likely to result in a "win-win-win" concession scheme to be identified. A hypothetical example is used to illustrate the proposed model. This highlights the importance of the decision-makers' perception of the concession items in influencing their selection, and the influence of the group decision-making involved. © 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
dc.description.natureLink_to_subscribed_fulltext
dc.identifier.citationAutomation In Construction, 2007, v. 17 n. 1, p. 22-29 [How to Cite?]
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.autcon.2007.02.010
dc.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.autcon.2007.02.010
dc.identifier.epage29
dc.identifier.hkuros142790
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000250433300003
dc.identifier.issn0926-5805
2011 Impact Factor: 1.5
2011 SCImago Journal Rankings: 0.054
dc.identifier.issue1
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-34547728279
dc.identifier.spage22
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/150421
dc.identifier.volume17
dc.languageeng
dc.publisherElsevier BV. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.elsevier.com/locate/autcon
dc.publisher.placeNetherlands
dc.relation.ispartofAutomation in Construction
dc.relation.referencesReferences in Scopus
dc.rightsAutomation in Construction. Copyright © Elsevier BV.
dc.subjectConcession Period
dc.subjectFuzzy Sets
dc.subjectPublic-Private Partnership
dc.subjectSimulation
dc.subjectTariff Regime
dc.titleA fuzzy simulation model for evaluating the concession items of public-private partnership schemes
dc.typeArticle
Author Affiliations
  1. The University of Hong Kong
  2. Queensland University of Technology