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Article: The roles of exposure and speed in road safety analysis

TitleThe roles of exposure and speed in road safety analysis
Authors
KeywordsBayesian methods
Crash risk
Crash severity
Exposure
Joint probability
Issue Date2012
PublisherElsevier Ltd. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/336/description#description
Citation
Accident Analysis & Prevention, 2012, v. 48, p. 464-471 How to Cite?
AbstractSpeed is a determining factor in road safety analysis. It is generally believed that an increase in speed harms road safety. However, it can also be argued that driving at high speed reduces the length of time exposure and thus the likelihood of a crash. It is therefore critical to clarify the roles that exposure and speed play in road safety analysis. This study evaluates the relationship between speed and crash risk with respect to distance and time exposure, using disaggregated crash and speed data collected from 112 road segments in Hong Kong. A joint probability model based on a full Bayesian method is applied simultaneously to model crash occurrence and crash severity. In addition, we consider the explanatory variables, including road design, weather conditions, and temporal distribution, in the proposed crash prediction model. The results indicate that average speed plays a significant role in crash risk, despite opposing correlations with respect to distance and time exposure; the correlation between speed and crash risk is positive when distance exposure is considered, but negative when time exposure is used. However, in both cases, speed is positively associated with the injury severity.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/149077
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 2.07
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 1.109
ISI Accession Number ID

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorPei, Xen_US
dc.contributor.authorWong, SCen_US
dc.contributor.authorSze, NNen_US
dc.date.accessioned2012-06-22T06:20:08Z-
dc.date.available2012-06-22T06:20:08Z-
dc.date.issued2012en_US
dc.identifier.citationAccident Analysis & Prevention, 2012, v. 48, p. 464-471en_US
dc.identifier.issn0001-4575-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/149077-
dc.description.abstractSpeed is a determining factor in road safety analysis. It is generally believed that an increase in speed harms road safety. However, it can also be argued that driving at high speed reduces the length of time exposure and thus the likelihood of a crash. It is therefore critical to clarify the roles that exposure and speed play in road safety analysis. This study evaluates the relationship between speed and crash risk with respect to distance and time exposure, using disaggregated crash and speed data collected from 112 road segments in Hong Kong. A joint probability model based on a full Bayesian method is applied simultaneously to model crash occurrence and crash severity. In addition, we consider the explanatory variables, including road design, weather conditions, and temporal distribution, in the proposed crash prediction model. The results indicate that average speed plays a significant role in crash risk, despite opposing correlations with respect to distance and time exposure; the correlation between speed and crash risk is positive when distance exposure is considered, but negative when time exposure is used. However, in both cases, speed is positively associated with the injury severity.-
dc.languageengen_US
dc.publisherElsevier Ltd. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/336/description#description-
dc.relation.ispartofAccident Analysis & Preventionen_US
dc.subjectBayesian methods-
dc.subjectCrash risk-
dc.subjectCrash severity-
dc.subjectExposure-
dc.subjectJoint probability-
dc.titleThe roles of exposure and speed in road safety analysisen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.identifier.emailPei, X: peixin@mail.tsinghua.edu.cnen_US
dc.identifier.emailWong, SC: hhecwsc@hku.hken_US
dc.identifier.emailSze, NN: nnsze@graduate.hku.hk-
dc.identifier.authorityWong, SC=rp00191en_US
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltext-
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.aap.2012.03.005-
dc.identifier.pmid22664713-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-84861899720-
dc.identifier.hkuros200331en_US
dc.identifier.volume48en_US
dc.identifier.spage464en_US
dc.identifier.epage471en_US
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000307140500053-
dc.publisher.placeUnited Kingdom-
dc.identifier.citeulike10509274-

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