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Article: A tale of two population crises in recent Chinese history
| Title | A tale of two population crises in recent Chinese history |
|---|---|
| Authors | |
| Keywords | Earth sciences Meteorology and Climatology |
| Issue Date | 2013 |
| Publisher | Springer Verlag Dordrecht. The Journal's web site is located at http://springerlink.metapress.com/openurl.asp?genre=journal&issn=0165-0009 |
| Citation | Climatic Change, 2013, v. 116 n. 2, p. 285-308 How to Cite? |
| Abstract | The fall of the Ming dynasty in the first half of the 17th century and the Taiping Rebellion from 1851-1864 were two of the most chaotic periods in Chinese history, and each was accompanied by large-scale population collapses. The 'Kang-Qian Golden Age' (also known as 'High Qing'), during which population size expanded rapidly, falls in between the two. Scholars remain divided in their opinions concerning the above alternation of population growth and decline as to whether variations in population size or climate change should be identified as the root cause. In either case, the synergistic impact of population growth and climate change upon population growth dynamics is overlooked. In the present study, we utilized high-resolution empirical data, qualitative survey, statistical comparison and time-series analysis to investigate how the two factors worked synergistically to drive population cycles in 1600-1899. To facilitate our research, we posited a set of simplified pathways for population growth in historical agrarian China. Our results confirm that the interrelation between population growth, climate change and population crises in recent Chinese history basically followed our posited pathways. The recurrences of population crises were largely determined by the combination of population growth and climate change. Our results challenge classic Malthusian/post-Malthusian interpretations and historians' views of historical Chinese population cycles. © 2012 The Author(s). |
| Persistent Identifier | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/147112 |
| ISSN | 2021 Impact Factor: 5.174 2020 SCImago Journal Rankings: 1.546 |
| ISI Accession Number ID | |
| References | An ZS (2000) The history and variability of the East Asian paleomonsoon climate. Quat Sci Rev 19:171–187 doi: 10.1016/S0277-3791(99)00060-8 Atwell WS (2002) Time, money, and the weather: Ming China and the 'great depression' of the mid-fifteenth century. J Asian Stud 61:83–113 doi: 10.2307/2700190 Chen F, Yu Z, Yang M, Ito E, Wang S, Madsen DB, Huang X, Zhao Y, Sato T, Birks HJB, Boomer I, Chen J, An C, Wuennemann B (2008) Holocene moisture evolution in arid central Asia and its out-of-phase relationship with Asian monsoon history. Quat Sci Rev 27:351–364 doi: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2007.10.017 Chen FH, Chen JH, Holmes J, Boomer I, Austin P, Gates JB, Wang NL, Brooks SJ, Zhang JW (2010) Moisture changes over the last millennium in arid central Asia: a review, synthesis and comparison with monsoon region. Quat Sci Rev 29:1055–1068 doi: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2010.01.005 Chu CYC, Lee RD (1994) Famine, revolt, and the dynastic cycle - Population dynamics in historical China. J Popul Econ 7:351–378 doi: 10.1007/BF00161472 Zhang W, Li P (1999) Lishi shiqi renkou yu shuizai guanxi tantao. Popul Res 23:25–31 doi: 10.1007/s10584-009-9702-3 Fang JQ, Liu G (1992) Relationship between climatic change and the nomadic southward migrations in eastern Asia during historical times. Clim Chang 22:151–169 doi: 10.1007/BF00142964 Fang X, Ye Y, Zeng Z (2007) Extreme climate events, migration for cultivation and policies: a case study in the early Qing dynasty of China. Sci China Earth Sci 50:411–421 doi: 10.1007/s11430-007-2022-4 Galloway PR (1986) Long-term fluctuations in climate and population in the preindustrial era. Popul Dev Rev 12:1–24 doi: 10.2307/1973349 Galloway PR (1988) Basic patterns in annual variations in fertility, nuptiality, mortality, and prices in pre-industrial Europe. Popul Stud 42:275–303 doi: 10.1080/0032472031000143366 Ho PT (1955) The introduction of American food plants into China. Am Anthropol 57:191–201 doi: 10.1525/aa.1955.57.2.02a00020 Lee HF, Zhang DD (2010) Changes in climate and secular population cycles in China, 1000 CE to 1911. Clim Res 42:235–246 doi: 10.3354/cr00913 Lee J, Wang F, Cameron C (1994) Infant and child-mortality among the Qing nobility: Implications for 2 types of positive check. Popul Stud 48:395–411 doi: 10.1080/0032472031000147936 Lee J, Cameron C, Wang F (2002) Positive check or Chinese checks? J Asian Stud 61:591–607 doi: 10.2307/2700301 Lee HF, Fok L, Zhang DD (2008) Climatic change and Chinese population growth dynamics over the last millennium. Clim Chang 88:131–156 doi: 10.1007/s10584-007-9329-1 Lee HF, Zhang DD, Fok L (2009) Temperature, aridity thresholds, and population growth dynamics in China over the last millennium. Clim Res 39:131–147 doi: 10.3354/cr00816 Ren Z (1987) The abnormal periods of climate in China over the past 5000 years and their causes. Adv Atmos Sci 4:210–217 doi: 10.1007/BF02677067 Stenseth NC, Voje KL (2009) Easter Island: climate change might have contributed to past cultural and societal changes. Clim Res 39:111–114 doi: 10.3354/cr00809 Wang YC (1936) The rise of land tax and the fall of dynasties in Chinese history. Pac Aff 9:201–220 doi: 10.2307/2751407 Wang SW, Gong DY, Zhu JH (2001) Twentieth-century climatic warming in China in the context of the Holocene. Holocene 11:313–321 doi: 10.1191/095968301673172698 Wood JW (1998) A theory of preindustrial population dynamics - Demography, economy, and well-being in malthusian systems. Curr Anthropol 39:99–135 doi: 10.1086/204700 Zhang DD, Jim CY, Lin GCS, He YQ, Wang JJ, Lee HF (2006) Climatic change, wars and dynastic cycles in China over the last millennium. Clim Chang 76:459–477 doi: 10.1007/s10584-005-9024-z Zhang DD, Brecke P, Lee HF, He YQ, Zhang J (2007a) Global climate change, war, and population decline in recent human history. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 104:19214–19219 doi: 10.1073/pnas.0703073104 Zhang DD, Zhang J, Lee HF, He YQ (2007b) Climate change and war frequency in Eastern China over the last millennium. Hum Ecol 35:403–414 doi: 10.1007/s10745-007-9115-8 |
| DC Field | Value | Language |
|---|---|---|
| dc.contributor.author | Lee, HF | en_HK |
| dc.contributor.author | Zhang, DD | en_HK |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2012-05-28T08:17:53Z | - |
| dc.date.available | 2012-05-28T08:17:53Z | - |
| dc.date.issued | 2013 | en_HK |
| dc.identifier.citation | Climatic Change, 2013, v. 116 n. 2, p. 285-308 | en_HK |
| dc.identifier.issn | 0165-0009 | en_HK |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/147112 | - |
| dc.description.abstract | The fall of the Ming dynasty in the first half of the 17th century and the Taiping Rebellion from 1851-1864 were two of the most chaotic periods in Chinese history, and each was accompanied by large-scale population collapses. The 'Kang-Qian Golden Age' (also known as 'High Qing'), during which population size expanded rapidly, falls in between the two. Scholars remain divided in their opinions concerning the above alternation of population growth and decline as to whether variations in population size or climate change should be identified as the root cause. In either case, the synergistic impact of population growth and climate change upon population growth dynamics is overlooked. In the present study, we utilized high-resolution empirical data, qualitative survey, statistical comparison and time-series analysis to investigate how the two factors worked synergistically to drive population cycles in 1600-1899. To facilitate our research, we posited a set of simplified pathways for population growth in historical agrarian China. Our results confirm that the interrelation between population growth, climate change and population crises in recent Chinese history basically followed our posited pathways. The recurrences of population crises were largely determined by the combination of population growth and climate change. Our results challenge classic Malthusian/post-Malthusian interpretations and historians' views of historical Chinese population cycles. © 2012 The Author(s). | en_HK |
| dc.language | eng | en_US |
| dc.publisher | Springer Verlag Dordrecht. The Journal's web site is located at http://springerlink.metapress.com/openurl.asp?genre=journal&issn=0165-0009 | en_HK |
| dc.relation.ispartof | Climatic Change | en_HK |
| dc.rights | The Author(s) | en_US |
| dc.rights | This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License. | en_US |
| dc.subject | Earth sciences | en_US |
| dc.subject | Meteorology and Climatology | en_US |
| dc.title | A tale of two population crises in recent Chinese history | en_HK |
| dc.type | Article | en_HK |
| dc.identifier.openurl | http://www.springerlink.com/link-out/?id=2104&code=810R8273M1145363&MUD=MP | en_US |
| dc.description.nature | published_or_final_version | en_US |
| dc.identifier.doi | 10.1007/s10584-012-0490-9 | en_HK |
| dc.identifier.scopus | eid_2-s2.0-84871408022 | en_HK |
| dc.identifier.hkuros | 225520 | - |
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| dc.identifier.spage | 1 | en_HK |
| dc.identifier.epage | 24 | en_HK |
| dc.identifier.eissn | 1573-1480 | en_US |
| dc.identifier.isi | WOS:000312715500008 | - |
| dc.publisher.place | Netherlands | en_HK |
| dc.description.other | Springer Open Choice, 28 May 2012 | en_US |
| dc.identifier.citeulike | 10689286 | - |
| dc.identifier.issnl | 0165-0009 | - |