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Article: Assortativity and the probability of epidemic extinction: A case study of pandemic influenza A (H1N1-2009)

TitleAssortativity and the probability of epidemic extinction: A case study of pandemic influenza A (H1N1-2009)
Authors
Keywords2009 H1N1 influenza
Influenza A (H1N1)
Pandemic influenza
Assortative mating
Epidemic
Issue Date2011
PublisherHindawi Publishing Corporation. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.hindawi.com/journals/ipid/
Citation
Interdisciplinary Perspectives on Infectious Diseases, 2011, v. 2011, article no. 194507 How to Cite?
AbstractUnlike local transmission of pandemic influenza A (H1N1-2009), which was frequently driven by school children, most cases identified in long-distance intranational and international travelers have been adults. The present study examines the relationship between the probability of temporary extinction and the age-dependent next-generation matrix, focusing on the impact of assortativity. Preferred mixing captures as a good approximation the assortativity of a heterogeneously mixing population. We show that the contribution of a nonmaintenance host (i.e., a host type which cannot sustain transmission on its own) to the risk of a major epidemic is greatly diminished as mixing patterns become more assortative, and in such a scenario, a higher proportion of non-maintenance hosts among index cases elevates the probability of extinction. Despite the presence of various other epidemiological factors that undoubtedly influenced the delay between first importations and the subsequent epidemic, these results suggest that the dominance of adults among imported cases represents one of the possible factors explaining the delays in geographic spread observed during the recent pandemic.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/143815
ISSN
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 0.763
PubMed Central ID
References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorNishiura, Hen_US
dc.contributor.authorCook, ARen_US
dc.contributor.authorCowling, BJen_US
dc.date.accessioned2011-12-21T08:56:37Z-
dc.date.available2011-12-21T08:56:37Z-
dc.date.issued2011en_US
dc.identifier.citationInterdisciplinary Perspectives on Infectious Diseases, 2011, v. 2011, article no. 194507en_US
dc.identifier.issn1687-708X-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/143815-
dc.description.abstractUnlike local transmission of pandemic influenza A (H1N1-2009), which was frequently driven by school children, most cases identified in long-distance intranational and international travelers have been adults. The present study examines the relationship between the probability of temporary extinction and the age-dependent next-generation matrix, focusing on the impact of assortativity. Preferred mixing captures as a good approximation the assortativity of a heterogeneously mixing population. We show that the contribution of a nonmaintenance host (i.e., a host type which cannot sustain transmission on its own) to the risk of a major epidemic is greatly diminished as mixing patterns become more assortative, and in such a scenario, a higher proportion of non-maintenance hosts among index cases elevates the probability of extinction. Despite the presence of various other epidemiological factors that undoubtedly influenced the delay between first importations and the subsequent epidemic, these results suggest that the dominance of adults among imported cases represents one of the possible factors explaining the delays in geographic spread observed during the recent pandemic.-
dc.languageengen_US
dc.publisherHindawi Publishing Corporation. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.hindawi.com/journals/ipid/-
dc.relation.ispartofInterdisciplinary Perspectives on Infectious Diseasesen_US
dc.rightsCreative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License-
dc.subject2009 H1N1 influenza-
dc.subjectInfluenza A (H1N1)-
dc.subjectPandemic influenza-
dc.subjectAssortative mating-
dc.subjectEpidemic-
dc.titleAssortativity and the probability of epidemic extinction: A case study of pandemic influenza A (H1N1-2009)en_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.identifier.emailNishiura, H: nishiura@hku.hken_US
dc.identifier.emailCowling, BJ: bcowling@hku.hken_US
dc.identifier.authorityNishiura, H=rp01488en_US
dc.identifier.authorityCowling, BJ=rp01326en_US
dc.description.naturepublished_or_final_version-
dc.identifier.doi10.1155/2011/194507-
dc.identifier.pmid21234337-
dc.identifier.pmcidPMC3017939-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-79951957994-
dc.identifier.hkuros198025en_US
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-79951957994&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpage-
dc.identifier.volume2011en_US
dc.publisher.placeUnited States-
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridNishiura, H=7005501836-
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridCook, AR=23392022000-
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridCowling, BJ=8644765500-

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