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Article: Changes in climate and secular population cycles in China, 1000 CE to 1911
Title | Changes in climate and secular population cycles in China, 1000 CE to 1911 | ||||||
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Authors | |||||||
Keywords | China Climate change Human population cycles Land carrying capacity Mortality Population pressure | ||||||
Issue Date | 2010 | ||||||
Publisher | Inter-Research. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.int-res.com/journals/cr/ | ||||||
Citation | Climate Research, 2010, v. 42 n. 3, p. 235-246 How to Cite? | ||||||
Abstract | Many studies of secular population cycles in historical China conclude that when population is large - relative to the land's carrying capacity - further population increase can lead to mortality crises through war, famine and epidemics, resulting in subsequent population decline. In these studies, population cycles are thought to be driven primarily by population growth. Nevertheless, some scholars have noted a strong correlation between deteriorating climate, dynastic change, and population collapse in historical China. They suggest climate forcing as the underlying driver of population cycles, but quantitative evidence has been lacking to date. In the present study, we employed high resolution temperature data, reports on mortality events, and population datasets to quantitatively examine the extent to which climate change was responsible for Chinese population cycles. Results show that there were 5 major population contractions in China between 1000 CE and 1911, and all of them occurred in periods with a cold climate, when mortality crises triggered population collapses. Nevertheless, the climate-population association is non-linear, because it is mediated by population pressure. Although social buffers were increasingly effective in dissipating climate forcing, they could not prevent population collapses from occurring during periods of long-term cooling. Our results challenge classic Malthusian and post-Malthusian interpretations of historical Chinese population cycles.© Inter-Research 2010. | ||||||
Persistent Identifier | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/142557 | ||||||
ISSN | 2023 Impact Factor: 1.2 2023 SCImago Journal Rankings: 0.320 | ||||||
ISI Accession Number ID |
Funding Information: We gratefully acknowledge the following research grants: Hong Kong University (HKU) Small Project Funding for completion of a project entitled 'The spatio-temporal dynamics of natural disasters in historical China' (200807176038); HKU Seed Funding for Basic Research for the project entitled, 'Long-term climate change and the 17th-century general crisis in Europe' (10400340); and Research Grants Council of The Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of the People's Republic of China for the project entitled, 'Climate change and war-peace cycles in Eurasia in recent human history' (HKU7055/08H). | ||||||
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Grants |
DC Field | Value | Language |
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dc.contributor.author | Lee, HF | en_HK |
dc.contributor.author | Zhang, DD | en_HK |
dc.date.accessioned | 2011-10-28T02:51:27Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2011-10-28T02:51:27Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2010 | en_HK |
dc.identifier.citation | Climate Research, 2010, v. 42 n. 3, p. 235-246 | en_HK |
dc.identifier.issn | 0936-577X | en_HK |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/142557 | - |
dc.description.abstract | Many studies of secular population cycles in historical China conclude that when population is large - relative to the land's carrying capacity - further population increase can lead to mortality crises through war, famine and epidemics, resulting in subsequent population decline. In these studies, population cycles are thought to be driven primarily by population growth. Nevertheless, some scholars have noted a strong correlation between deteriorating climate, dynastic change, and population collapse in historical China. They suggest climate forcing as the underlying driver of population cycles, but quantitative evidence has been lacking to date. In the present study, we employed high resolution temperature data, reports on mortality events, and population datasets to quantitatively examine the extent to which climate change was responsible for Chinese population cycles. Results show that there were 5 major population contractions in China between 1000 CE and 1911, and all of them occurred in periods with a cold climate, when mortality crises triggered population collapses. Nevertheless, the climate-population association is non-linear, because it is mediated by population pressure. Although social buffers were increasingly effective in dissipating climate forcing, they could not prevent population collapses from occurring during periods of long-term cooling. Our results challenge classic Malthusian and post-Malthusian interpretations of historical Chinese population cycles.© Inter-Research 2010. | en_HK |
dc.language | eng | en_US |
dc.publisher | Inter-Research. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.int-res.com/journals/cr/ | en_HK |
dc.relation.ispartof | Climate Research | en_HK |
dc.rights | Climate Research. Copyright © Inter-Research. | en_US |
dc.subject | China | en_HK |
dc.subject | Climate change | en_HK |
dc.subject | Human population cycles | en_HK |
dc.subject | Land carrying capacity | en_HK |
dc.subject | Mortality | en_HK |
dc.subject | Population pressure | en_HK |
dc.title | Changes in climate and secular population cycles in China, 1000 CE to 1911 | en_HK |
dc.type | Article | en_HK |
dc.identifier.openurl | http://library.hku.hk:4550/resserv?sid=HKU:IR&issn=0936-577X&volume=42&spage=235&epage=246&date=2010&atitle=Changes+in+Climate+and+Secular+Population+Cycles+in+China,+1000+CE+to+1911 | en_US |
dc.identifier.email | Lee, HF:harry.lee@graduate.hku.hk | en_HK |
dc.identifier.email | Zhang, DD:zhangd@hkucc.hku.hk | en_HK |
dc.identifier.authority | Lee, HF=rp00646 | en_HK |
dc.identifier.authority | Zhang, DD=rp00649 | en_HK |
dc.description.nature | published_or_final_version | - |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.3354/cr00913 | en_HK |
dc.identifier.scopus | eid_2-s2.0-77957725211 | en_HK |
dc.identifier.hkuros | 196938 | en_US |
dc.identifier.hkuros | 179665 | - |
dc.relation.references | http://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-77957725211&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpage | en_HK |
dc.identifier.volume | 42 | en_HK |
dc.identifier.issue | 3 | en_HK |
dc.identifier.spage | 235 | en_HK |
dc.identifier.epage | 246 | en_HK |
dc.identifier.eissn | 1616-1572 | - |
dc.identifier.isi | WOS:000283204500007 | - |
dc.publisher.place | Germany | en_HK |
dc.relation.project | The Spatio-temporal Dynamics of Natural Disasters in Historical China | - |
dc.identifier.scopusauthorid | Lee, HF=9243348000 | en_HK |
dc.identifier.scopusauthorid | Zhang, DD=9732911600 | en_HK |
dc.identifier.issnl | 0936-577X | - |