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Article: Written records of historical tsunamis in the northeastern South China Sea - Challenges associated with developing a new integrated database

TitleWritten records of historical tsunamis in the northeastern South China Sea - Challenges associated with developing a new integrated database
Authors
KeywordsHistorical record
Natural disaster
Recurrence interval
Tsunami event
Pacific ocean
Issue Date2010
PublisherCopernicus GmbH. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.natural-hazards-and-earth-system-sciences.net
Citation
Natural Hazards And Earth System Science, 2010, v. 10 n. 9, p. 1793-1806 How to Cite?
AbstractComprehensive analysis of 15 previously published regional databases incorporating more than 100 sources leads to a newly revised historical tsunami database for the northeastern (NE) region of the South China Sea (SCS) including Taiwan. The validity of each reported historical tsunami event listed in our database is assessed by comparing and contrasting the information and descriptions provided in the other databases. All earlier databases suffer from errors associated with inaccuracies in translation between different languages, calendars and location names. The new database contains 205 records of "events" reported to have occurred between AD 1076 and 2009. We identify and investigate 58 recorded tsunami events in the region. The validity of each event is based on the consistency and accuracy of the reports along with the relative number of individual records for that event. Of the 58 events, 23 are regarded as "valid" (confirmed) events, three are "probable" events and six are "possible". Eighteen events are considered "doubtful" and eight events "invalid". The most destructive tsunami of the 23 valid events occurred in 1867 and affected Keelung, northern Taiwan, killing at least 100 people. Inaccuracies in the historical record aside, this new database highlights the occurrence and geographical extent of several large tsunamis in the NE SCS region and allows an elementary statistical analysis of annual recurrence intervals. Based on historical records from 1951-2009 the probability of a tsunami (from any source) affecting the region in any given year is relatively high (33.4%). However, the likelihood of a tsunami that has a wave height >1 m, and/or causes fatalities and damage to infrastructure occurring in the region in any given year is low (1-2%). This work indicates the need for further research using coastal stratigraphy and inundation modeling to help validate some of the historical accounts of tsunamis as well as adequately evaluate the recurrence intervals of tsunamis along the now heavily developed coastlines of the region. © Author(s) 2010.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/139155
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 2.277
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 1.189
ISI Accession Number ID
Funding AgencyGrant Number
Singapore National Research FoundationRF2010-04
Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, ChinaHKU 704008P
Earth Observatory of Singapore
HKU
Funding Information:

We would like to thank W. K. Li of the Department of Statistics & Actuarial Science of The University of Hong Kong for his advice on statistics. This material is based on research supported in part by the Singapore National Research Foundation under NRF RF Award No RF2010-04 to A. D. Switzer, Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China (project HKU 704008P) to A. D. Switzer and Dominey-Howes, and an Earth Observatory of Singapore grant to A. D. Switzer. A. Y. A. Lau is supported by a HKU-Space postgraduate scholarship. Chiu Hon Chim is thanked for his help with an early draft. This work is Earth Observatory of Singapore Contribution Number 8.

References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorLau, AYAen_HK
dc.contributor.authorSwitzer, ADen_HK
dc.contributor.authorDomineyHowes, Den_HK
dc.contributor.authorAitchison, JCen_HK
dc.contributor.authorZong, Yen_HK
dc.date.accessioned2011-09-23T05:46:06Z-
dc.date.available2011-09-23T05:46:06Z-
dc.date.issued2010en_HK
dc.identifier.citationNatural Hazards And Earth System Science, 2010, v. 10 n. 9, p. 1793-1806en_HK
dc.identifier.issn1561-8633en_HK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/139155-
dc.description.abstractComprehensive analysis of 15 previously published regional databases incorporating more than 100 sources leads to a newly revised historical tsunami database for the northeastern (NE) region of the South China Sea (SCS) including Taiwan. The validity of each reported historical tsunami event listed in our database is assessed by comparing and contrasting the information and descriptions provided in the other databases. All earlier databases suffer from errors associated with inaccuracies in translation between different languages, calendars and location names. The new database contains 205 records of "events" reported to have occurred between AD 1076 and 2009. We identify and investigate 58 recorded tsunami events in the region. The validity of each event is based on the consistency and accuracy of the reports along with the relative number of individual records for that event. Of the 58 events, 23 are regarded as "valid" (confirmed) events, three are "probable" events and six are "possible". Eighteen events are considered "doubtful" and eight events "invalid". The most destructive tsunami of the 23 valid events occurred in 1867 and affected Keelung, northern Taiwan, killing at least 100 people. Inaccuracies in the historical record aside, this new database highlights the occurrence and geographical extent of several large tsunamis in the NE SCS region and allows an elementary statistical analysis of annual recurrence intervals. Based on historical records from 1951-2009 the probability of a tsunami (from any source) affecting the region in any given year is relatively high (33.4%). However, the likelihood of a tsunami that has a wave height >1 m, and/or causes fatalities and damage to infrastructure occurring in the region in any given year is low (1-2%). This work indicates the need for further research using coastal stratigraphy and inundation modeling to help validate some of the historical accounts of tsunamis as well as adequately evaluate the recurrence intervals of tsunamis along the now heavily developed coastlines of the region. © Author(s) 2010.en_HK
dc.languageengen_US
dc.publisherCopernicus GmbH. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.natural-hazards-and-earth-system-sciences.neten_HK
dc.relation.ispartofNatural Hazards and Earth System Scienceen_HK
dc.rightsCreative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License-
dc.subjectHistorical record-
dc.subjectNatural disaster-
dc.subjectRecurrence interval-
dc.subjectTsunami event-
dc.subjectPacific ocean-
dc.titleWritten records of historical tsunamis in the northeastern South China Sea - Challenges associated with developing a new integrated databaseen_HK
dc.typeArticleen_HK
dc.identifier.emailAitchison, JC: jona@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.emailZong, Y: yqzong@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.authorityAitchison, JC=rp00658en_HK
dc.identifier.authorityZong, Y=rp00846en_HK
dc.description.naturepublished_or_final_version-
dc.identifier.doi10.5194/nhess-10-1793-2010en_HK
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-77956372599en_HK
dc.identifier.hkuros193770en_US
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-77956372599&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_HK
dc.identifier.volume10en_HK
dc.identifier.issue9en_HK
dc.identifier.spage1793en_HK
dc.identifier.epage1806en_HK
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000282427300002-
dc.publisher.placeGermanyen_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridLau, AYA=36499989600en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridSwitzer, AD=10738884500en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridDomineyHowes, D=6602236444en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridAitchison, JC=7102533858en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridZong, Y=7005203454en_HK

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