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Article: Predicting construction market growth for urban metropolis: An econometric analysis

TitlePredicting construction market growth for urban metropolis: An econometric analysis
Authors
KeywordsConstruction demand
Market planning
Multiple regression
Vector error correction model
Issue Date2011
PublisherPergamon. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.elsevier.com/locate/habitatint
Citation
Habitat International, 2011, v. 35 n. 2, p. 167-174 How to Cite?
AbstractConstruction market forecasting has been an important research topic for policy formulation and implementation as the importance and impact of the industry to an economy is undeniable. Yet, not much research effort has been attributed to establishing construction demand forecasting models to predict construction market growth except those using the univariate time-series techniques. Given a close linkage between the general economy and the construction industry, it is imperative to understand the structure of the construction market and hence develop an insight into the future development of the industry. In this research, the vector error correction (VEC) modelling technique is employed to estimate the medium-term overall construction demand in Hong Kong. The results show that the VEC models can provide reliable and robust forecast of around 3% in terms of the mean absolute percentage error for a ten-quarter time span. A regression model is also developed to verify the reliability and robustness of the VEC model. Using the VEC model, industry stakeholders and policy makers can predict the medium-term trend of Hong Kong construction demand and hence formulate suitable strategies to meet the challenges ahead. The findings and econometric modelling technique of this study are valuable to both developed and developing countries when examining the future construction market at the metropolitan level. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/137263
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 2.029
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 1.038
ISI Accession Number ID
References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorFan, RYCen_HK
dc.contributor.authorNg, STen_HK
dc.contributor.authorWong, JMWen_HK
dc.date.accessioned2011-08-26T14:21:51Z-
dc.date.available2011-08-26T14:21:51Z-
dc.date.issued2011en_HK
dc.identifier.citationHabitat International, 2011, v. 35 n. 2, p. 167-174en_HK
dc.identifier.issn0197-3975en_HK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/137263-
dc.description.abstractConstruction market forecasting has been an important research topic for policy formulation and implementation as the importance and impact of the industry to an economy is undeniable. Yet, not much research effort has been attributed to establishing construction demand forecasting models to predict construction market growth except those using the univariate time-series techniques. Given a close linkage between the general economy and the construction industry, it is imperative to understand the structure of the construction market and hence develop an insight into the future development of the industry. In this research, the vector error correction (VEC) modelling technique is employed to estimate the medium-term overall construction demand in Hong Kong. The results show that the VEC models can provide reliable and robust forecast of around 3% in terms of the mean absolute percentage error for a ten-quarter time span. A regression model is also developed to verify the reliability and robustness of the VEC model. Using the VEC model, industry stakeholders and policy makers can predict the medium-term trend of Hong Kong construction demand and hence formulate suitable strategies to meet the challenges ahead. The findings and econometric modelling technique of this study are valuable to both developed and developing countries when examining the future construction market at the metropolitan level. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd.en_HK
dc.languageengen_US
dc.publisherPergamon. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.elsevier.com/locate/habitatinten_HK
dc.relation.ispartofHabitat Internationalen_HK
dc.subjectConstruction demanden_HK
dc.subjectMarket planningen_HK
dc.subjectMultiple regressionen_HK
dc.subjectVector error correction modelen_HK
dc.titlePredicting construction market growth for urban metropolis: An econometric analysisen_HK
dc.typeArticleen_HK
dc.identifier.emailNg, ST:tstng@hkucc.hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.authorityNg, ST=rp00158en_HK
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltext-
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.habitatint.2010.08.002en_HK
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-78651502338en_HK
dc.identifier.hkuros191922en_US
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-78651502338&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_HK
dc.identifier.volume35en_HK
dc.identifier.issue2en_HK
dc.identifier.spage167en_HK
dc.identifier.epage174en_HK
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000287428600001-
dc.publisher.placeUnited Kingdomen_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridFan, RYC=27267665500en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridNg, ST=7403358853en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridWong, JMW=30067976000en_HK
dc.identifier.citeulike7889691-

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