File Download

There are no files associated with this item.

  Links for fulltext
     (May Require Subscription)
Supplementary

Article: An econometric model for forecasting private construction investment in Hong Kong

TitleAn econometric model for forecasting private construction investment in Hong Kong
Authors
KeywordsCrowding-in effect
Private construction investment
Regression analysis
Stationarity
Vector error correction model
Issue Date2011
PublisherRoutledge. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.tandf.co.uk/journals/titles/01446193.asp
Citation
Construction Management And Economics, 2011, v. 29 n. 5, p. 519-534 How to Cite?
AbstractAcknowledging the importance of the private construction market and a close linkage between private construction investment, public sector output and general economic conditions, there is a strong motivation to develop reliable models to forecast private construction investment. Based on the Hong Kong scenario, two modelling approaches, namely the vector error correction (VEC) and the multiple regression models are developed and compared for their modelling accuracy and ability to handle non-stationary time series data. The result suggests that private construction investment in Hong Kong can be predicted by reference to public investment in construction, gross domestic product (GDP) and unemployment rate. All in all, the VEC model is considered more accurate and robust in handling non-stationary data. Through the VEC model, it is possible to confirm that the crowding-in effect of public work programmes, though minimal, is discernible in private construction investment in Hong Kong. Yet private construction investment is more sensitive to general economic conditions, as represented by GDP and unemployment rate. The GDP could represent the ability of investors to pay for construction items, while the unemployment rate is used as a proxy for the willingness of end-users to purchase the construction items. The models proposed should help policy and decision makers formulate suitable policies and strategies to sustain the construction industry in the medium to long run. © 2011 Taylor & Francis.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/137262
ISSN
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 0.967
References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorNg, STen_HK
dc.contributor.authorFan, RYCen_HK
dc.contributor.authorWong, JMWen_HK
dc.date.accessioned2011-08-26T14:21:50Z-
dc.date.available2011-08-26T14:21:50Z-
dc.date.issued2011en_HK
dc.identifier.citationConstruction Management And Economics, 2011, v. 29 n. 5, p. 519-534en_HK
dc.identifier.issn0144-6193en_HK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/137262-
dc.description.abstractAcknowledging the importance of the private construction market and a close linkage between private construction investment, public sector output and general economic conditions, there is a strong motivation to develop reliable models to forecast private construction investment. Based on the Hong Kong scenario, two modelling approaches, namely the vector error correction (VEC) and the multiple regression models are developed and compared for their modelling accuracy and ability to handle non-stationary time series data. The result suggests that private construction investment in Hong Kong can be predicted by reference to public investment in construction, gross domestic product (GDP) and unemployment rate. All in all, the VEC model is considered more accurate and robust in handling non-stationary data. Through the VEC model, it is possible to confirm that the crowding-in effect of public work programmes, though minimal, is discernible in private construction investment in Hong Kong. Yet private construction investment is more sensitive to general economic conditions, as represented by GDP and unemployment rate. The GDP could represent the ability of investors to pay for construction items, while the unemployment rate is used as a proxy for the willingness of end-users to purchase the construction items. The models proposed should help policy and decision makers formulate suitable policies and strategies to sustain the construction industry in the medium to long run. © 2011 Taylor & Francis.en_HK
dc.languageengen_US
dc.publisherRoutledge. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.tandf.co.uk/journals/titles/01446193.aspen_HK
dc.relation.ispartofConstruction Management and Economicsen_HK
dc.subjectCrowding-in effecten_HK
dc.subjectPrivate construction investmenten_HK
dc.subjectRegression analysisen_HK
dc.subjectStationarityen_HK
dc.subjectVector error correction modelen_HK
dc.titleAn econometric model for forecasting private construction investment in Hong Kongen_HK
dc.typeArticleen_HK
dc.identifier.openurlhttp://library.hku.hk:4550/resserv?sid=HKU:IR&issn=0144-6193&volume=29&issue=5&spage=519&epage=534&date=2011&atitle=An+econometric+model+for+forecasting+private+construction+investment+in+Hong+Kong-
dc.identifier.emailNg, ST:tstng@hkucc.hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.authorityNg, ST=rp00158en_HK
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltext-
dc.identifier.doi10.1080/01446193.2011.570356en_HK
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-79959216568en_HK
dc.identifier.hkuros191918en_US
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-79959216568&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_HK
dc.identifier.volume29en_HK
dc.identifier.issue5en_HK
dc.identifier.spage519en_HK
dc.identifier.epage534en_HK
dc.publisher.placeUnited Kingdomen_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridNg, ST=7403358853en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridFan, RYC=27267665500en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridWong, JMW=30067976000en_HK
dc.identifier.citeulike9487703-

Export via OAI-PMH Interface in XML Formats


OR


Export to Other Non-XML Formats