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Article: Epidemiology of a primary pneumonic plague in Kantoshu, Manchuria, from 1910 to 1911: Statistical analysis of individual records collected by the Japanese Empire

TitleEpidemiology of a primary pneumonic plague in Kantoshu, Manchuria, from 1910 to 1911: Statistical analysis of individual records collected by the Japanese Empire
Authors
Issue Date2006
PublisherOxford University Press. The Journal's web site is located at http://ije.oxfordjournals.org/
Citation
International Journal Of Epidemiology, 2006, v. 35 n. 4, p. 1059-1065 How to Cite?
AbstractBackground: Among the potential uses of Yersinia pestis, intentional release of its aerosolized form, causing person-to-person transmission, is thought to be the most threatening. With the current rarity of pneumonic plague epidemics, our epidemiological knowledge remains insufficient for detailed characterization of effective control measures. Methods: Temporal patterns and key biological parameters of apneumonic plague epidemic in Manchuria from 1910 to 1911 were analysed based on historical records collected by Kanto Totokufu, the administration of the Japanese Empire in Manchuria at that time. The serial intervals were fitted to gamma distribution using the maximum likelihood method, and time-delay distributions from onset-to-admission, admission-to-death, and onset-to-death were investigated. Results: Whereas a total of 228 cases were diagnosed with pneumonic plague in areas under direct control of the Japanese Empire, 4781 cases were also recorded in surrounding areas. Although the epidemic grew exponentially in the early phase, the average doubling time steadily increased reflecting successful control efforts. The estimated mean serial interval (and standard deviation) was 5.7 (3.6) days. All cases with known dates of onset were admitted to hospital within 4 days after onset, and the mean time from onset to admission was 1.1 (0.4) days. Conclusions: The increase in doubling time demonstrates the efficient and rapid countermeasures employed. Since the short interval from onset to death implies the importance of rapid responses, the challenge in confronting a future bioterrorist attack is to implement rapid and appropriate integration of control measures both at the individual and community level to prevent further transmissions as well as lower case fatality. © 2006 Oxford University Press.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/134237
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 7.522
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 4.381
ISI Accession Number ID
References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorNishiura, Hen_HK
dc.date.accessioned2011-06-13T07:20:59Z-
dc.date.available2011-06-13T07:20:59Z-
dc.date.issued2006en_HK
dc.identifier.citationInternational Journal Of Epidemiology, 2006, v. 35 n. 4, p. 1059-1065en_HK
dc.identifier.issn0300-5771en_HK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/134237-
dc.description.abstractBackground: Among the potential uses of Yersinia pestis, intentional release of its aerosolized form, causing person-to-person transmission, is thought to be the most threatening. With the current rarity of pneumonic plague epidemics, our epidemiological knowledge remains insufficient for detailed characterization of effective control measures. Methods: Temporal patterns and key biological parameters of apneumonic plague epidemic in Manchuria from 1910 to 1911 were analysed based on historical records collected by Kanto Totokufu, the administration of the Japanese Empire in Manchuria at that time. The serial intervals were fitted to gamma distribution using the maximum likelihood method, and time-delay distributions from onset-to-admission, admission-to-death, and onset-to-death were investigated. Results: Whereas a total of 228 cases were diagnosed with pneumonic plague in areas under direct control of the Japanese Empire, 4781 cases were also recorded in surrounding areas. Although the epidemic grew exponentially in the early phase, the average doubling time steadily increased reflecting successful control efforts. The estimated mean serial interval (and standard deviation) was 5.7 (3.6) days. All cases with known dates of onset were admitted to hospital within 4 days after onset, and the mean time from onset to admission was 1.1 (0.4) days. Conclusions: The increase in doubling time demonstrates the efficient and rapid countermeasures employed. Since the short interval from onset to death implies the importance of rapid responses, the challenge in confronting a future bioterrorist attack is to implement rapid and appropriate integration of control measures both at the individual and community level to prevent further transmissions as well as lower case fatality. © 2006 Oxford University Press.en_HK
dc.languageengen_US
dc.publisherOxford University Press. The Journal's web site is located at http://ije.oxfordjournals.org/en_HK
dc.relation.ispartofInternational Journal of Epidemiologyen_HK
dc.subject.meshContainment of Biohazardsen_HK
dc.subject.meshDisease Outbreaksen_HK
dc.subject.meshHumansen_HK
dc.subject.meshJapanen_HK
dc.subject.meshLikelihood Functionsen_HK
dc.subject.meshPlague - mortality - prevention & control - transmissionen_HK
dc.subject.meshRecords as Topicen_HK
dc.subject.meshResearch Designen_HK
dc.subject.meshTimeen_HK
dc.subject.meshYersinia pestisen_HK
dc.titleEpidemiology of a primary pneumonic plague in Kantoshu, Manchuria, from 1910 to 1911: Statistical analysis of individual records collected by the Japanese Empireen_HK
dc.typeArticleen_HK
dc.identifier.emailNishiura, H:nishiura@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.authorityNishiura, H=rp01488en_HK
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltexten_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1093/ije/dyl091en_HK
dc.identifier.pmid16684896-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-33749600097en_HK
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-33749600097&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_HK
dc.identifier.volume35en_HK
dc.identifier.issue4en_HK
dc.identifier.spage1059en_HK
dc.identifier.epage1065en_HK
dc.identifier.eissn1464-3685-
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000240939300039-
dc.publisher.placeUnited Kingdomen_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridNishiura, H=7005501836en_HK
dc.identifier.citeulike867309-

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