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Article: Mathematical and statistical analyses of the spread of dengue

TitleMathematical and statistical analyses of the spread of dengue
Authors
KeywordsBasic reproduction number
Dengue
Epidemiology
Mathematical model
Periodicity
Population theory
Statistical model
Issue Date2006
PublisherWorld Health Organization, Regional Office for South-East Asia
Citation
Dengue Bulletin, 2006, v. 30, p. 51-67 How to Cite?
AbstractThis paper is aimed at clarifying the contributions of mathematical and statistical approaches to dengue epidemiology without delving into mathematical details and sharing the basic theory and its applications regardless of the reader's mathematical background. The practical importance of the basic reproduction number, R0, for dengue is highlighted in relation to the critical proportion of vaccination required to eradicate the disease in the future, and three different methods to estimate R0, (i) final size equation; (ii) intrinsic growth rate; and (iii) age distribution, are concisely explained with published estimates and examples. Although the estimates of R0 most likely depend on the ecological characteristics of the vector population, it would be appropriate to assume that serotype-nonspecific R0 for dengue is approximately 10, at least in planning vaccination strategies in endemic areas. Statistical approaches to determining the periodicity of epidemics, cocirculation of different serotypes (relevant to pathogenesis of dengue haemorrhagic fever), and the significance of spatial heterogeneity are subsequently discussed. Whereas the dengue epidemic is partly characterized by a super-annual cycle with 3-4-year intervals, it is known only that this pattern is determined by the intrinsic dynamics of dengue and not by environmental factors. Although antibody-dependent enhancement was determined as a factor permitting the coexistence of the four serotypes of dengue, a more detailed understanding requires further data. To base the transmission dynamics of dengue on firm evidence and apply the results to dengue control, it is essential that field and laboratory professionals and theoretical specialists interact more.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/134232
ISSN
2012 SCImago Journal Rankings: 0.213
References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorNishiura, Hen_HK
dc.date.accessioned2011-06-13T07:20:57Z-
dc.date.available2011-06-13T07:20:57Z-
dc.date.issued2006en_HK
dc.identifier.citationDengue Bulletin, 2006, v. 30, p. 51-67en_HK
dc.identifier.issn1020-895Xen_HK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/134232-
dc.description.abstractThis paper is aimed at clarifying the contributions of mathematical and statistical approaches to dengue epidemiology without delving into mathematical details and sharing the basic theory and its applications regardless of the reader's mathematical background. The practical importance of the basic reproduction number, R0, for dengue is highlighted in relation to the critical proportion of vaccination required to eradicate the disease in the future, and three different methods to estimate R0, (i) final size equation; (ii) intrinsic growth rate; and (iii) age distribution, are concisely explained with published estimates and examples. Although the estimates of R0 most likely depend on the ecological characteristics of the vector population, it would be appropriate to assume that serotype-nonspecific R0 for dengue is approximately 10, at least in planning vaccination strategies in endemic areas. Statistical approaches to determining the periodicity of epidemics, cocirculation of different serotypes (relevant to pathogenesis of dengue haemorrhagic fever), and the significance of spatial heterogeneity are subsequently discussed. Whereas the dengue epidemic is partly characterized by a super-annual cycle with 3-4-year intervals, it is known only that this pattern is determined by the intrinsic dynamics of dengue and not by environmental factors. Although antibody-dependent enhancement was determined as a factor permitting the coexistence of the four serotypes of dengue, a more detailed understanding requires further data. To base the transmission dynamics of dengue on firm evidence and apply the results to dengue control, it is essential that field and laboratory professionals and theoretical specialists interact more.en_HK
dc.languageengen_US
dc.publisherWorld Health Organization, Regional Office for South-East Asiaen_US
dc.relation.ispartofDengue Bulletinen_HK
dc.subjectBasic reproduction numberen_HK
dc.subjectDengueen_HK
dc.subjectEpidemiologyen_HK
dc.subjectMathematical modelen_HK
dc.subjectPeriodicityen_HK
dc.subjectPopulation theoryen_HK
dc.subjectStatistical modelen_HK
dc.titleMathematical and statistical analyses of the spread of dengueen_HK
dc.typeArticleen_HK
dc.identifier.emailNishiura, H:nishiura@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.authorityNishiura, H=rp01488en_HK
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltexten_US
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-34848898990en_HK
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-34848898990&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_HK
dc.identifier.volume30en_HK
dc.identifier.spage51en_HK
dc.identifier.epage67en_HK
dc.publisher.placeIndiaen_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridNishiura, H=7005501836en_HK

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