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Article: Early efforts in modeling the incubation period of infectious diseases with an acute course of illness

TitleEarly efforts in modeling the incubation period of infectious diseases with an acute course of illness
Authors
KeywordsArticle
Disease Course
Incidence
Incubation Time
Infection
Pandemic
Population Exposure
Spanish Influenza
Statistical Analysis
Statistical Distribution
Statistical Model
Validity
Issue Date2007
PublisherBioMed Central Ltd. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.ete-online.com/home/
Citation
Emerging Themes In Epidemiology, 2007, v. 4 How to Cite?
AbstractThe incubation period of infectious diseases, the time from infection with a microorganism to onset of disease, is directly relevant to prevention and control. Since explicit models of the incubation period enhance our understanding of the spread of disease, previous classic studies were revisited, focusing on the modeling methods employed and paying particular attention to relatively unknown historical efforts. The earliest study on the incubation period of pandemic influenza was published in 1919, providing estimates of the incubation period of Spanish flu using the daily incidence on ships departing from several ports in Australia. Although the study explicitly dealt with an unknown time of exposure, the assumed periods of exposure, which had an equal probability of infection, were too long, and thus, likely resulted in slight underestimates of the incubation period. After the suggestion that the incubation period follows lognormal distribution, Japanese epidemiologists extended this assumption to estimates of the time of exposure during a point source outbreak. Although the reason why the incubation period of acute infectious diseases tends to reveal a right-skewed distribution has been explored several times, the validity of the lognormal assumption is yet to be fully clarified. At present, various different distributions are assumed, and the lack of validity in assuming lognormal distribution is particularly apparent in the case of slowly progressing diseases. The present paper indicates that (1) analysis using well-defined short periods of exposure with appropriate statistical methods is critical when the exact time of exposure is unknown, and (2) when assuming a specific distribution for the incubation period, comparisons using different distributions are needed in addition to estimations using different datasets, analyses of the determinants of incubation period, and an understanding of the underlying disease mechanisms. © 2007 Nishiura; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/134224
ISSN
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 1.172
PubMed Central ID
References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorNishiura, Hen_HK
dc.date.accessioned2011-06-13T07:20:55Z-
dc.date.available2011-06-13T07:20:55Z-
dc.date.issued2007en_HK
dc.identifier.citationEmerging Themes In Epidemiology, 2007, v. 4en_HK
dc.identifier.issn1742-7622en_HK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/134224-
dc.description.abstractThe incubation period of infectious diseases, the time from infection with a microorganism to onset of disease, is directly relevant to prevention and control. Since explicit models of the incubation period enhance our understanding of the spread of disease, previous classic studies were revisited, focusing on the modeling methods employed and paying particular attention to relatively unknown historical efforts. The earliest study on the incubation period of pandemic influenza was published in 1919, providing estimates of the incubation period of Spanish flu using the daily incidence on ships departing from several ports in Australia. Although the study explicitly dealt with an unknown time of exposure, the assumed periods of exposure, which had an equal probability of infection, were too long, and thus, likely resulted in slight underestimates of the incubation period. After the suggestion that the incubation period follows lognormal distribution, Japanese epidemiologists extended this assumption to estimates of the time of exposure during a point source outbreak. Although the reason why the incubation period of acute infectious diseases tends to reveal a right-skewed distribution has been explored several times, the validity of the lognormal assumption is yet to be fully clarified. At present, various different distributions are assumed, and the lack of validity in assuming lognormal distribution is particularly apparent in the case of slowly progressing diseases. The present paper indicates that (1) analysis using well-defined short periods of exposure with appropriate statistical methods is critical when the exact time of exposure is unknown, and (2) when assuming a specific distribution for the incubation period, comparisons using different distributions are needed in addition to estimations using different datasets, analyses of the determinants of incubation period, and an understanding of the underlying disease mechanisms. © 2007 Nishiura; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.en_HK
dc.languageengen_US
dc.publisherBioMed Central Ltd. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.ete-online.com/home/en_HK
dc.relation.ispartofEmerging Themes in Epidemiologyen_HK
dc.subjectArticleen_US
dc.subjectDisease Courseen_US
dc.subjectIncidenceen_US
dc.subjectIncubation Timeen_US
dc.subjectInfectionen_US
dc.subjectPandemicen_US
dc.subjectPopulation Exposureen_US
dc.subjectSpanish Influenzaen_US
dc.subjectStatistical Analysisen_US
dc.subjectStatistical Distributionen_US
dc.subjectStatistical Modelen_US
dc.subjectValidityen_US
dc.titleEarly efforts in modeling the incubation period of infectious diseases with an acute course of illnessen_HK
dc.typeArticleen_HK
dc.identifier.emailNishiura, H:nishiura@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.authorityNishiura, H=rp01488en_HK
dc.description.naturepublished_or_final_versionen_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1186/1742-7622-4-2en_HK
dc.identifier.pmid17466070-
dc.identifier.pmcidPMC1884151-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-34249802934en_HK
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-34249802934&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_HK
dc.identifier.volume4en_HK
dc.publisher.placeUnited Kingdomen_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridNishiura, H=7005501836en_HK
dc.identifier.citeulike1261823-

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