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Article: Time variations in the transmissibility of pandemic influenza in Prussia, Germany, from 1918-19

TitleTime variations in the transmissibility of pandemic influenza in Prussia, Germany, from 1918-19
Authors
KeywordsReferences (40) View In Table Layout
Issue Date2007
PublisherBioMed Central Ltd. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.tbiomed.com/home/
Citation
Theoretical Biology And Medical Modelling, 2007, v. 4 How to Cite?
AbstractBackground. Time variations in transmission potential have rarely been examined with regard to pandemic influenza. This paper reanalyzes the temporal distribution of pandemic influenza in Prussia, Germany, from 1918-19 using the daily numbers of deaths, which totaled 8911 from 29 September 1918 to 1 February 1919, and the distribution of the time delay from onset to death in order to estimate the effective reproduction number, Rt, defined as the actual average number of secondary cases per primary case at a given time. Results. A discrete-time branching process was applied to back-calculated incidence data, assuming three different serial intervals (i.e. 1, 3 and 5 days). The estimated reproduction numbers exhibited a clear association between the estimates and choice of serial interval; i.e. the longer the assumed serial interval, the higher the reproduction number. Moreover, the estimated reproduction numbers did not decline monotonically with time, indicating that the patterns of secondary transmission varied with time. These tendencies are consistent with the differences in estimates of the reproduction number of pandemic influenza in recent studies; high estimates probably originate from a long serial interval and a model assumption about transmission rate that takes no account of time variation and is applied to the entire epidemic curve. Conclusion. The present findings suggest that in order to offer robust assessments it is critically important to clarify in detail the natural history of a disease (e.g. including the serial interval) as well as heterogeneous patterns of transmission. In addition, given that human contact behavior probably influences transmissibility, individual countermeasures (e.g. household quarantine and mask-wearing) need to be explored to construct effective non-pharmaceutical interventions. © 2007 Nishiura; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/134223
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 1.033
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 0.444
PubMed Central ID
ISI Accession Number ID
Funding AgencyGrant Number
Banyu Life Science Foundation International
Japanese Ministry of Education, Science, Sports and Culture18810024
Funding Information:

The author thanks Klaus Dietz for useful discussions. This study was supported by the Banyu Life Science Foundation International and the Japanese Ministry of Education, Science, Sports and Culture in the form of a Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (# 18810024, 2006).

References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorNishiura, Hen_HK
dc.date.accessioned2011-06-13T07:20:54Z-
dc.date.available2011-06-13T07:20:54Z-
dc.date.issued2007en_HK
dc.identifier.citationTheoretical Biology And Medical Modelling, 2007, v. 4en_HK
dc.identifier.issn1742-4682en_HK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/134223-
dc.description.abstractBackground. Time variations in transmission potential have rarely been examined with regard to pandemic influenza. This paper reanalyzes the temporal distribution of pandemic influenza in Prussia, Germany, from 1918-19 using the daily numbers of deaths, which totaled 8911 from 29 September 1918 to 1 February 1919, and the distribution of the time delay from onset to death in order to estimate the effective reproduction number, Rt, defined as the actual average number of secondary cases per primary case at a given time. Results. A discrete-time branching process was applied to back-calculated incidence data, assuming three different serial intervals (i.e. 1, 3 and 5 days). The estimated reproduction numbers exhibited a clear association between the estimates and choice of serial interval; i.e. the longer the assumed serial interval, the higher the reproduction number. Moreover, the estimated reproduction numbers did not decline monotonically with time, indicating that the patterns of secondary transmission varied with time. These tendencies are consistent with the differences in estimates of the reproduction number of pandemic influenza in recent studies; high estimates probably originate from a long serial interval and a model assumption about transmission rate that takes no account of time variation and is applied to the entire epidemic curve. Conclusion. The present findings suggest that in order to offer robust assessments it is critically important to clarify in detail the natural history of a disease (e.g. including the serial interval) as well as heterogeneous patterns of transmission. In addition, given that human contact behavior probably influences transmissibility, individual countermeasures (e.g. household quarantine and mask-wearing) need to be explored to construct effective non-pharmaceutical interventions. © 2007 Nishiura; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.en_HK
dc.languageengen_US
dc.publisherBioMed Central Ltd. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.tbiomed.com/home/en_HK
dc.relation.ispartofTheoretical Biology and Medical Modellingen_HK
dc.subjectReferences (40) View In Table Layouten_US
dc.titleTime variations in the transmissibility of pandemic influenza in Prussia, Germany, from 1918-19en_HK
dc.typeArticleen_HK
dc.identifier.emailNishiura, H:nishiura@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.authorityNishiura, H=rp01488en_HK
dc.description.naturepublished_or_final_versionen_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1186/1742-4682-4-20en_HK
dc.identifier.pmid17547753-
dc.identifier.pmcidPMC1892008-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-34250371355en_HK
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-34250371355&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_HK
dc.identifier.volume4en_HK
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000208054900020-
dc.publisher.placeUnited Kingdomen_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridNishiura, H=7005501836en_HK
dc.identifier.citeulike1366881-

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