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Article: Lessons from previous predictions of HIV/AIDS in the United States and Japan: Epidemiologic models and policy formulation

TitleLessons from previous predictions of HIV/AIDS in the United States and Japan: Epidemiologic models and policy formulation
Authors
KeywordsAcquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome
Disease Transmission
Drug Activity
Health Care Policy
Health Survey
Human
Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infection
Incidence
Japan
Mathematical Analysis
Normal Distribution
Prediction
Review
Statistical Analysis
Theoretical Study
United States
Issue Date2007
PublisherBioMed Central Ltd. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.epi-perspectives.com/home/
Citation
Epidemiologic Perspectives And Innovations, 2007, v. 4 How to Cite?
AbstractThis paper critically discusses two previous studies concerned with predictions of HIV/AIDS in the United States and Japan during the early 1990s. Although the study in the US applied a historical theory, assuming normal distribution for the epidemic curve, the underlying infection process was not taken into account. In the Japan case, the true HIV incidence was estimated using the coverage ratio of previously diagnosed/undiagnosed HIV infections among AIDS cases, the assumptions of which were not supported by a firm theoretical understanding. At least partly because of failure to account for underlying mechanisms of the disease and its transmission, both studies failed to yield appropriate predictions of the future AIDS incidence. Further, in the Japan case, the importance of consistent surveillance data was not sufficiently emphasized or openly discussed and, because of this, revision of the AIDS reporting system has made it difficult to determine the total number of AIDS cases and apply a backcalculation method. Other widely accepted approaches can also fail to provide perfect predictions. Nevertheless, wrong policy direction could arise if we ignore important assumptions, methods and input data required to answer specific questions. The present paper highlights the need for appropriate assessment of specific modeling purposes and explicit listing of essential information as well as possible solutions to aid relevant policy formulation. © 2007 Nishiura; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/134222
ISSN
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 0.905
PubMed Central ID
References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorNishiura, Hen_HK
dc.date.accessioned2011-06-13T07:20:54Z-
dc.date.available2011-06-13T07:20:54Z-
dc.date.issued2007en_HK
dc.identifier.citationEpidemiologic Perspectives And Innovations, 2007, v. 4en_HK
dc.identifier.issn1742-5573en_HK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/134222-
dc.description.abstractThis paper critically discusses two previous studies concerned with predictions of HIV/AIDS in the United States and Japan during the early 1990s. Although the study in the US applied a historical theory, assuming normal distribution for the epidemic curve, the underlying infection process was not taken into account. In the Japan case, the true HIV incidence was estimated using the coverage ratio of previously diagnosed/undiagnosed HIV infections among AIDS cases, the assumptions of which were not supported by a firm theoretical understanding. At least partly because of failure to account for underlying mechanisms of the disease and its transmission, both studies failed to yield appropriate predictions of the future AIDS incidence. Further, in the Japan case, the importance of consistent surveillance data was not sufficiently emphasized or openly discussed and, because of this, revision of the AIDS reporting system has made it difficult to determine the total number of AIDS cases and apply a backcalculation method. Other widely accepted approaches can also fail to provide perfect predictions. Nevertheless, wrong policy direction could arise if we ignore important assumptions, methods and input data required to answer specific questions. The present paper highlights the need for appropriate assessment of specific modeling purposes and explicit listing of essential information as well as possible solutions to aid relevant policy formulation. © 2007 Nishiura; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.en_HK
dc.languageengen_US
dc.publisherBioMed Central Ltd. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.epi-perspectives.com/home/en_HK
dc.relation.ispartofEpidemiologic Perspectives and Innovationsen_HK
dc.subjectAcquired Immune Deficiency Syndromeen_US
dc.subjectDisease Transmissionen_US
dc.subjectDrug Activityen_US
dc.subjectHealth Care Policyen_US
dc.subjectHealth Surveyen_US
dc.subjectHumanen_US
dc.subjectHuman Immunodeficiency Virus Infectionen_US
dc.subjectIncidenceen_US
dc.subjectJapanen_US
dc.subjectMathematical Analysisen_US
dc.subjectNormal Distributionen_US
dc.subjectPredictionen_US
dc.subjectReviewen_US
dc.subjectStatistical Analysisen_US
dc.subjectTheoretical Studyen_US
dc.subjectUnited Statesen_US
dc.titleLessons from previous predictions of HIV/AIDS in the United States and Japan: Epidemiologic models and policy formulationen_HK
dc.typeArticleen_HK
dc.identifier.emailNishiura, H:nishiura@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.authorityNishiura, H=rp01488en_HK
dc.description.naturepublished_or_final_versionen_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1186/1742-5573-4-3en_HK
dc.identifier.pmid17567907-
dc.identifier.pmcidPMC1906780-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-34447109222en_HK
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-34447109222&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_HK
dc.identifier.volume4en_HK
dc.publisher.placeUnited Kingdomen_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridNishiura, H=7005501836en_HK
dc.identifier.citeulike1387865-

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