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Article: Quantifying the transmission potential of pandemic influenza

TitleQuantifying the transmission potential of pandemic influenza
Authors
KeywordsBasic reproduction number
Epidemiology
Influenza
Model
Pandemic
Issue Date2008
PublisherElsevier BV. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.elsevier.com/locate/plrev
Citation
Physics Of Life Reviews, 2008, v. 5 n. 1, p. 50-77 How to Cite?
AbstractThis article reviews quantitative methods to estimate the basic reproduction number of pandemic influenza, a key threshold quantity to help determine the intensity of interventions required to control the disease. Although it is difficult to assess the transmission potential of a probable future pandemic, historical epidemiologic data is readily available from previous pandemics, and as a reference quantity for future pandemic planning, mathematical and statistical analyses of historical data are crucial. In particular, because many historical records tend to document only the temporal distribution of cases or deaths (i.e. epidemic curve), our review focuses on methods to maximize the utility of time-evolution data and to clarify the detailed mechanisms of the spread of influenza. First, we highlight structured epidemic models and their parameter estimation method which can quantify the detailed disease dynamics including those we cannot observe directly. Duration-structured epidemic systems are subsequently presented, offering firm understanding of the definition of the basic and effective reproduction numbers. When the initial growth phase of an epidemic is investigated, the distribution of the generation time is key statistical information to appropriately estimate the transmission potential using the intrinsic growth rate. Applications of stochastic processes are also highlighted to estimate the transmission potential using similar data. Critically important characteristics of influenza data are subsequently summarized, followed by our conclusions to suggest potential future methodological improvements. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/134218
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 8.615
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 2.615
ISI Accession Number ID
References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorChowell, Gen_HK
dc.contributor.authorNishiura, Hen_HK
dc.date.accessioned2011-06-13T07:20:53Z-
dc.date.available2011-06-13T07:20:53Z-
dc.date.issued2008en_HK
dc.identifier.citationPhysics Of Life Reviews, 2008, v. 5 n. 1, p. 50-77en_HK
dc.identifier.issn1571-0645en_HK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/134218-
dc.description.abstractThis article reviews quantitative methods to estimate the basic reproduction number of pandemic influenza, a key threshold quantity to help determine the intensity of interventions required to control the disease. Although it is difficult to assess the transmission potential of a probable future pandemic, historical epidemiologic data is readily available from previous pandemics, and as a reference quantity for future pandemic planning, mathematical and statistical analyses of historical data are crucial. In particular, because many historical records tend to document only the temporal distribution of cases or deaths (i.e. epidemic curve), our review focuses on methods to maximize the utility of time-evolution data and to clarify the detailed mechanisms of the spread of influenza. First, we highlight structured epidemic models and their parameter estimation method which can quantify the detailed disease dynamics including those we cannot observe directly. Duration-structured epidemic systems are subsequently presented, offering firm understanding of the definition of the basic and effective reproduction numbers. When the initial growth phase of an epidemic is investigated, the distribution of the generation time is key statistical information to appropriately estimate the transmission potential using the intrinsic growth rate. Applications of stochastic processes are also highlighted to estimate the transmission potential using similar data. Critically important characteristics of influenza data are subsequently summarized, followed by our conclusions to suggest potential future methodological improvements. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.en_HK
dc.languageengen_US
dc.publisherElsevier BV. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.elsevier.com/locate/plreven_HK
dc.relation.ispartofPhysics of Life Reviewsen_HK
dc.subjectBasic reproduction numberen_HK
dc.subjectEpidemiologyen_HK
dc.subjectInfluenzaen_HK
dc.subjectModelen_HK
dc.subjectPandemicen_HK
dc.titleQuantifying the transmission potential of pandemic influenzaen_HK
dc.typeArticleen_HK
dc.identifier.emailNishiura, H:nishiura@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.authorityNishiura, H=rp01488en_HK
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltexten_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.plrev.2007.12.001en_HK
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-39049160050en_HK
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-39049160050&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_HK
dc.identifier.volume5en_HK
dc.identifier.issue1en_HK
dc.identifier.spage50en_HK
dc.identifier.epage77en_HK
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000254034300003-
dc.publisher.placeNetherlandsen_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridChowell, G=9845935500en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridNishiura, H=7005501836en_HK
dc.identifier.citeulike4154027-

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