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Article: Extracting key information from historical data to quantify the transmission dynamics of smallpox

TitleExtracting key information from historical data to quantify the transmission dynamics of smallpox
Authors
KeywordsChemicals And Cas Registry Numbers
Issue Date2008
PublisherBioMed Central Ltd. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.tbiomed.com/home/
Citation
Theoretical Biology And Medical Modelling, 2008, v. 5 How to Cite?
AbstractBackground. Quantification of the transmission dynamics of smallpox is crucial for optimizing intervention strategies in the event of a bioterrorist attack. This article reviews basic methods and findings in mathematical and statistical studies of smallpox which estimate key transmission parameters from historical data. Main findings. First, critically important aspects in extracting key information from historical data are briefly summarized. We mention different sources of heterogeneity and potential pitfalls in utilizing historical records. Second, we discuss how smallpox spreads in the absence of interventions and how the optimal timing of quarantine and isolation measures can be determined. Case studies demonstrate the following. (1) The upper confidence limit of the 99th percentile of the incubation period is 22.2 days, suggesting that quarantine should last 23 days. (2) The highest frequency (61.8%) of secondary transmissions occurs 3-5 days after onset of fever so that infected individuals should be isolated before the appearance of rash. (3) The U-shaped age-specific case fatality implies a vulnerability of infants and elderly among non-immune individuals. Estimates of the transmission potential are subsequently reviewed, followed by an assessment of vaccination effects and of the expected effectiveness of interventions. Conclusion. Current debates on bio-terrorism preparedness indicate that public health decision making must account for the complex interplay and balance between vaccination strategies and other public health measures (e.g. case isolation and contact tracing) taking into account the frequency of adverse events to vaccination. In this review, we summarize what has already been clarified and point out needs to analyze previous smallpox outbreaks systematically. © 2008 Nishiura et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/134216
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 1.033
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 0.444
PubMed Central ID
ISI Accession Number ID
Funding AgencyGrant Number
European Union (FP6 STREP)513715
Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO)ALW-IPY-NL/06-15D
Funding Information:

This review would not have been possible without technical support and input from Klaus Dietz and Isao Arita. This study was in part supported by European Union project INFTRANS (FP6 STREP; contract no. 513715). The study of HN was supported by The Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO, ALW-IPY-NL/06-15D).

References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorNishiura, Hen_HK
dc.contributor.authorBrockmann, SOen_HK
dc.contributor.authorEichner, Men_HK
dc.date.accessioned2011-06-13T07:20:52Z-
dc.date.available2011-06-13T07:20:52Z-
dc.date.issued2008en_HK
dc.identifier.citationTheoretical Biology And Medical Modelling, 2008, v. 5en_HK
dc.identifier.issn1742-4682en_HK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/134216-
dc.description.abstractBackground. Quantification of the transmission dynamics of smallpox is crucial for optimizing intervention strategies in the event of a bioterrorist attack. This article reviews basic methods and findings in mathematical and statistical studies of smallpox which estimate key transmission parameters from historical data. Main findings. First, critically important aspects in extracting key information from historical data are briefly summarized. We mention different sources of heterogeneity and potential pitfalls in utilizing historical records. Second, we discuss how smallpox spreads in the absence of interventions and how the optimal timing of quarantine and isolation measures can be determined. Case studies demonstrate the following. (1) The upper confidence limit of the 99th percentile of the incubation period is 22.2 days, suggesting that quarantine should last 23 days. (2) The highest frequency (61.8%) of secondary transmissions occurs 3-5 days after onset of fever so that infected individuals should be isolated before the appearance of rash. (3) The U-shaped age-specific case fatality implies a vulnerability of infants and elderly among non-immune individuals. Estimates of the transmission potential are subsequently reviewed, followed by an assessment of vaccination effects and of the expected effectiveness of interventions. Conclusion. Current debates on bio-terrorism preparedness indicate that public health decision making must account for the complex interplay and balance between vaccination strategies and other public health measures (e.g. case isolation and contact tracing) taking into account the frequency of adverse events to vaccination. In this review, we summarize what has already been clarified and point out needs to analyze previous smallpox outbreaks systematically. © 2008 Nishiura et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.en_HK
dc.languageengen_US
dc.publisherBioMed Central Ltd. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.tbiomed.com/home/en_HK
dc.relation.ispartofTheoretical Biology and Medical Modellingen_HK
dc.subjectChemicals And Cas Registry Numbersen_US
dc.titleExtracting key information from historical data to quantify the transmission dynamics of smallpoxen_HK
dc.typeArticleen_HK
dc.identifier.emailNishiura, H:nishiura@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.authorityNishiura, H=rp01488en_HK
dc.description.naturepublished_or_final_versionen_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1186/1742-4682-5-20en_HK
dc.identifier.pmid18715509-
dc.identifier.pmcidPMC2538509-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-51849119215en_HK
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-51849119215&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_HK
dc.identifier.volume5en_HK
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000265644300001-
dc.publisher.placeUnited Kingdomen_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridNishiura, H=7005501836en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridBrockmann, SO=7004122338en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridEichner, M=26643365500en_HK
dc.identifier.citeulike3146523-

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