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Article: The state-reproduction number for a multistate class age structured epidemic system and its application to the asymptomatic transmission model

TitleThe state-reproduction number for a multistate class age structured epidemic system and its application to the asymptomatic transmission model
Authors
KeywordsSpecies Index: Variola Virus
Issue Date2008
PublisherElsevier Inc. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.elsevier.com/locate/mbs
Citation
Mathematical Biosciences, 2008, v. 216 n. 1, p. 77-89 How to Cite?
AbstractIn this paper, we develop the theory of a state-reproduction number for a multistate class age structured epidemic system and apply it to examine the asymptomatic transmission model. We formulate a renewal integral equation system to describe the invasion of infectious diseases into a multistate class age structured host population. We define the state-reproduction number for a class age structured system, which is the net reproduction number of a specific host type and which plays an analogous role to the type-reproduction number [M.G. Roberts, J.A.P. Heesterbeek, A new method for estimating the effort required to control an infectious disease, Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B 270 (2003) 1359; J.A.P. Heesterbeek, M.G. Roberts, The type-reproduction number T in models for infectious disease control, Math. Biosci. 206 (2007) 3] in discussing the critical level of public health intervention. The renewal equation formulation permits computations not only of the state-reproduction number, but also of the generation time and the intrinsic growth rate of infectious diseases. Subsequently, the basic theory is applied to capture the dynamics of a directly transmitted disease within two types of infected populations, i.e., asymptomatic and symptomatic individuals, in which the symptomatic class is observable and hence a target host of the majority of interventions. The state-reproduction number of the symptomatic host is derived and expressed as a measurable quantity, leading to discussion on the critical level of case isolation. The serial interval and other epidemiologic indices are computed, clarifying the parameters on which these indices depend. As a practical example, we illustrate the eradication threshold for case isolation of smallpox. The generation time and serial interval are comparatively examined for pandemic influenza. © 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/134214
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 1.256
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 0.719
ISI Accession Number ID
References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorInaba, Hen_HK
dc.contributor.authorNishiura, Hen_HK
dc.date.accessioned2011-06-13T07:20:52Z-
dc.date.available2011-06-13T07:20:52Z-
dc.date.issued2008en_HK
dc.identifier.citationMathematical Biosciences, 2008, v. 216 n. 1, p. 77-89en_HK
dc.identifier.issn0025-5564en_HK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/134214-
dc.description.abstractIn this paper, we develop the theory of a state-reproduction number for a multistate class age structured epidemic system and apply it to examine the asymptomatic transmission model. We formulate a renewal integral equation system to describe the invasion of infectious diseases into a multistate class age structured host population. We define the state-reproduction number for a class age structured system, which is the net reproduction number of a specific host type and which plays an analogous role to the type-reproduction number [M.G. Roberts, J.A.P. Heesterbeek, A new method for estimating the effort required to control an infectious disease, Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B 270 (2003) 1359; J.A.P. Heesterbeek, M.G. Roberts, The type-reproduction number T in models for infectious disease control, Math. Biosci. 206 (2007) 3] in discussing the critical level of public health intervention. The renewal equation formulation permits computations not only of the state-reproduction number, but also of the generation time and the intrinsic growth rate of infectious diseases. Subsequently, the basic theory is applied to capture the dynamics of a directly transmitted disease within two types of infected populations, i.e., asymptomatic and symptomatic individuals, in which the symptomatic class is observable and hence a target host of the majority of interventions. The state-reproduction number of the symptomatic host is derived and expressed as a measurable quantity, leading to discussion on the critical level of case isolation. The serial interval and other epidemiologic indices are computed, clarifying the parameters on which these indices depend. As a practical example, we illustrate the eradication threshold for case isolation of smallpox. The generation time and serial interval are comparatively examined for pandemic influenza. © 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.en_HK
dc.languageengen_US
dc.publisherElsevier Inc. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.elsevier.com/locate/mbsen_HK
dc.relation.ispartofMathematical Biosciencesen_HK
dc.subjectSpecies Index: Variola Virusen_US
dc.subject.meshDisease Outbreaks - prevention & controlen_HK
dc.subject.meshHumansen_HK
dc.subject.meshInfluenza, Human - epidemiology - transmissionen_HK
dc.subject.meshModels, Statisticalen_HK
dc.subject.meshPublic Health - methodsen_HK
dc.subject.meshSmallpox - epidemiology - transmissionen_HK
dc.titleThe state-reproduction number for a multistate class age structured epidemic system and its application to the asymptomatic transmission modelen_HK
dc.typeArticleen_HK
dc.identifier.emailNishiura, H:nishiura@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.authorityNishiura, H=rp01488en_HK
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltexten_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.mbs.2008.08.005en_HK
dc.identifier.pmid18768142-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-54349112795en_HK
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-54349112795&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_HK
dc.identifier.volume216en_HK
dc.identifier.issue1en_HK
dc.identifier.spage77en_HK
dc.identifier.epage89en_HK
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000261540600010-
dc.publisher.placeUnited Statesen_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridInaba, H=7202113278en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridNishiura, H=7005501836en_HK

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