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Article: Duration of short-lived cross-protective immunity against a clinical attack of dengue: A preliminary estimate

TitleDuration of short-lived cross-protective immunity against a clinical attack of dengue: A preliminary estimate
Authors
KeywordsDengue
Epidemiology
Immunity
Serotype
Statistical model
Issue Date2008
PublisherWorld Health Organization, Regional Office for South-East Asia
Citation
Dengue Bulletin, 2008, v. 32, p. 55-66 How to Cite?
AbstractIt is believed that primary infection with a single serotype of dengue virus elicits short-lived cross-protective immunity against other heterologous serotypes; however, the duration of cross-protection has not been explicitly estimated using epidemiological data. To offer an empirical estimate of the duration, the present study re-analysed historical cohort data of multiple clinical attacks of dengue among American soldiers in the Philippines from 1922-24. In the original study, the historical cohort of 299 cases with a first clinical attack of dengue were closely surveyed; 99 (33.1%) experienced a second attack, while the remaining 200 returned to the United States without further attacks. The time intervals from first to second attack among the 99 cases, and from first attack to departure to the United States among the 200 soldiers, were used for estimating the duration of cross-protective immunity based on a simple mathematical model. Employing an exponential distribution or Kronecker's delta function as the loss function of cross-protection against a second clinical attack, the mean duration of cross-protective immunity since the first clinical attack was estimated as 6.90 (4.87, 11.83) days and 7.52 (4.88, 16.38) days, respectively. The force of infection, which was jointly estimated with the duration of cross-protection, reasonably explained the other observed epidemiological information in the data, supporting the finding of a short cross-protection period. Even though the estimates suggested that the first clinical attack most likely elicited cross-protective immunity, the length of cross-protection lasted only 1-2 weeks, far shorter than previously believed.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/134213
ISSN
2012 SCImago Journal Rankings: 0.213
References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorNishiura, Hen_HK
dc.date.accessioned2011-06-13T07:20:51Z-
dc.date.available2011-06-13T07:20:51Z-
dc.date.issued2008en_HK
dc.identifier.citationDengue Bulletin, 2008, v. 32, p. 55-66en_HK
dc.identifier.issn1020-895Xen_HK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/134213-
dc.description.abstractIt is believed that primary infection with a single serotype of dengue virus elicits short-lived cross-protective immunity against other heterologous serotypes; however, the duration of cross-protection has not been explicitly estimated using epidemiological data. To offer an empirical estimate of the duration, the present study re-analysed historical cohort data of multiple clinical attacks of dengue among American soldiers in the Philippines from 1922-24. In the original study, the historical cohort of 299 cases with a first clinical attack of dengue were closely surveyed; 99 (33.1%) experienced a second attack, while the remaining 200 returned to the United States without further attacks. The time intervals from first to second attack among the 99 cases, and from first attack to departure to the United States among the 200 soldiers, were used for estimating the duration of cross-protective immunity based on a simple mathematical model. Employing an exponential distribution or Kronecker's delta function as the loss function of cross-protection against a second clinical attack, the mean duration of cross-protective immunity since the first clinical attack was estimated as 6.90 (4.87, 11.83) days and 7.52 (4.88, 16.38) days, respectively. The force of infection, which was jointly estimated with the duration of cross-protection, reasonably explained the other observed epidemiological information in the data, supporting the finding of a short cross-protection period. Even though the estimates suggested that the first clinical attack most likely elicited cross-protective immunity, the length of cross-protection lasted only 1-2 weeks, far shorter than previously believed.en_HK
dc.languageengen_US
dc.publisherWorld Health Organization, Regional Office for South-East Asiaen_US
dc.relation.ispartofDengue Bulletinen_HK
dc.subjectDengueen_HK
dc.subjectEpidemiologyen_HK
dc.subjectImmunityen_HK
dc.subjectSerotypeen_HK
dc.subjectStatistical modelen_HK
dc.titleDuration of short-lived cross-protective immunity against a clinical attack of dengue: A preliminary estimateen_HK
dc.typeArticleen_HK
dc.identifier.emailNishiura, H:nishiura@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.authorityNishiura, H=rp01488en_HK
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltexten_US
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-70350064453en_HK
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-70350064453&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_HK
dc.identifier.volume32en_HK
dc.identifier.spage55en_HK
dc.identifier.epage66en_HK
dc.publisher.placeIndiaen_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridNishiura, H=7005501836en_HK

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