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Article: Determination of the appropriate quarantine period following smallpox exposure: An objective approach using the incubation period distribution

TitleDetermination of the appropriate quarantine period following smallpox exposure: An objective approach using the incubation period distribution
Authors
KeywordsSpecies Index: Variola
Variola Virus
Issue Date2009
PublisherUrban und Fischer Verlag. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.elsevier.com/locate/intjhyg
Citation
International Journal Of Hygiene And Environmental Health, 2009, v. 212 n. 1, p. 97-104 How to Cite?
AbstractDetermination of the most appropriate quarantine period for those exposed to smallpox is crucial to the construction of an effective preparedness program against a potential bioterrorist attack. This study reanalyzed data on the incubation period distribution of smallpox to allow the optimal quarantine period to be objectively calculated. In total, 131 cases of smallpox were examined; incubation periods were extracted from four different sets of historical data and only cases arising from exposure for a single day were considered. The mean (median and standard deviation (SD)) incubation period was 12.5 (12.0, 2.2) days. Assuming lognormal and gamma distributions for the incubation period, maximum likelihood estimates (and corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI)) of the 95th percentile were 16.4 (95% CI: 15.6, 17.9) and 16.2 (95% CI: 15.5, 17.4) days, respectively. Using a non-parametric method, the 95th percentile point was estimated as 16 (95% CI: 15, 17) days. The upper 95% CIs of the incubation periods at the 90th, 95th and 99th percentiles were shorter than 17, 18 and 23 days, respectively, using both parametric and non-parametric methods. These results suggest that quarantine measures can ensure non-infection among those exposed to smallpox with probabilities higher than 95-99%, if the exposed individuals are quarantined for 18-23 days after the date of contact tracing. © 2007 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/134212
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 3.98
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 1.499
ISI Accession Number ID
Funding AgencyGrant Number
Banyu Life Science Foundation International
Japanese Ministry of Education, Science, Sports and Culture18810024
Funding Information:

This study was in part supported by the Banyu Life Science Foundation International and also by the Japanese Ministry of Education, Science, Sports and Culture in the form of a Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (#18810024, 2006).

References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorNishiura, Hen_HK
dc.date.accessioned2011-06-13T07:20:51Z-
dc.date.available2011-06-13T07:20:51Z-
dc.date.issued2009en_HK
dc.identifier.citationInternational Journal Of Hygiene And Environmental Health, 2009, v. 212 n. 1, p. 97-104en_HK
dc.identifier.issn1438-4639en_HK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/134212-
dc.description.abstractDetermination of the most appropriate quarantine period for those exposed to smallpox is crucial to the construction of an effective preparedness program against a potential bioterrorist attack. This study reanalyzed data on the incubation period distribution of smallpox to allow the optimal quarantine period to be objectively calculated. In total, 131 cases of smallpox were examined; incubation periods were extracted from four different sets of historical data and only cases arising from exposure for a single day were considered. The mean (median and standard deviation (SD)) incubation period was 12.5 (12.0, 2.2) days. Assuming lognormal and gamma distributions for the incubation period, maximum likelihood estimates (and corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI)) of the 95th percentile were 16.4 (95% CI: 15.6, 17.9) and 16.2 (95% CI: 15.5, 17.4) days, respectively. Using a non-parametric method, the 95th percentile point was estimated as 16 (95% CI: 15, 17) days. The upper 95% CIs of the incubation periods at the 90th, 95th and 99th percentiles were shorter than 17, 18 and 23 days, respectively, using both parametric and non-parametric methods. These results suggest that quarantine measures can ensure non-infection among those exposed to smallpox with probabilities higher than 95-99%, if the exposed individuals are quarantined for 18-23 days after the date of contact tracing. © 2007 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.en_HK
dc.languageengen_US
dc.publisherUrban und Fischer Verlag. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.elsevier.com/locate/intjhygen_HK
dc.relation.ispartofInternational Journal of Hygiene and Environmental Healthen_HK
dc.subjectSpecies Index: Variolaen_US
dc.subjectVariola Virusen_US
dc.subject.meshAnalysis of Varianceen_HK
dc.subject.meshHistory, 19th Centuryen_HK
dc.subject.meshHistory, 20th Centuryen_HK
dc.subject.meshHumansen_HK
dc.subject.meshInfectious Disease Incubation Perioden_HK
dc.subject.meshLikelihood Functionsen_HK
dc.subject.meshModels, Theoreticalen_HK
dc.subject.meshQuarantine - methodsen_HK
dc.subject.meshSmallpox - history - prevention & control - transmissionen_HK
dc.subject.meshStatistical Distributionsen_HK
dc.titleDetermination of the appropriate quarantine period following smallpox exposure: An objective approach using the incubation period distributionen_HK
dc.typeArticleen_HK
dc.identifier.emailNishiura, H:nishiura@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.authorityNishiura, H=rp01488en_HK
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltexten_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.ijheh.2007.10.003en_HK
dc.identifier.pmid18178524-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-57449097676en_HK
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-57449097676&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_HK
dc.identifier.volume212en_HK
dc.identifier.issue1en_HK
dc.identifier.spage97en_HK
dc.identifier.epage104en_HK
dc.identifier.eissn1618-131X-
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000262991100014-
dc.publisher.placeGermanyen_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridNishiura, H=7005501836en_HK

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