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Article: Quarantine for pandemic influenza control at the borders of small island nations

TitleQuarantine for pandemic influenza control at the borders of small island nations
Authors
KeywordsReferences (53) View In Table Layout
Issue Date2009
PublisherBioMed Central Ltd. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.biomedcentral.com/bmcinfectdis/
Citation
Bmc Infectious Diseases, 2009, v. 9 How to Cite?
AbstractBackground: Although border quarantine is included in many influenza pandemic plans, detailed guidelines have yet to be formulated, including considerations for the optimal quarantine length. Motivated by the situation of small island nations, which will probably experience the introduction of pandemic influenza via just one airport, we examined the potential effectiveness of quarantine as a border control measure. Methods: Analysing the detailed epidemiologic characteristics of influenza, the effectiveness of quarantine at the borders of islands was modelled as the relative reduction of the risk of releasing infectious individuals into the community, explicitly accounting for the presence of asymptomatic infected individuals. The potential benefit of adding the use of rapid diagnostic testing to the quarantine process was also considered. Results: We predict that 95% and 99% effectiveness in preventing the release of infectious individuals into the community could be achieved with quarantine periods of longer than 4.7 and 8.6 days, respectively. If rapid diagnostic testing is combined with quarantine, the lengths of quarantine to achieve 95% and 99% effectiveness could be shortened to 2.6 and 5.7 days, respectively. Sensitivity analysis revealed that quarantine alone for 8.7 days or quarantine for 5.7 days combined with using rapid diagnostic testing could prevent secondary transmissions caused by the released infectious individuals for a plausible range of prevalence at the source country (up to 10%) and for a modest number of incoming travellers (up to 8000 individuals). Conclusion: Quarantine atthe borders of island nations could contribute substantially to preventing the arrival of pandemic influenza (or at least delaying the arrival date). For small island nations we recommend consideration of quarantine alone for 9 days or quarantine for 6 days combined with using rapid diagnostic testing (if available). © 2009 Nishiura et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/134211
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 2.69
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 1.510
PubMed Central ID
ISI Accession Number ID
Funding AgencyGrant Number
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (USA)1 U01 CI000445-01
New Zealand Ministry of Health
Asian Neighbours Network Program of the Toyota Foundation
The Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research
Funding Information:

We thank the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (USA) for contributing to funding this research work on pandemic influenza control (via grant: 1 U01 CI000445-01). Early work on this topic was also supported by a research contract with the New Zealand Ministry of Health. The work of HN was supported by the Asian Neighbours Network Program of the Toyota Foundation and The Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO).

References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorNishiura, Hen_HK
dc.contributor.authorWilson, Nen_HK
dc.contributor.authorBaker, MGen_HK
dc.date.accessioned2011-06-13T07:20:51Z-
dc.date.available2011-06-13T07:20:51Z-
dc.date.issued2009en_HK
dc.identifier.citationBmc Infectious Diseases, 2009, v. 9en_HK
dc.identifier.issn1471-2334en_HK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/134211-
dc.description.abstractBackground: Although border quarantine is included in many influenza pandemic plans, detailed guidelines have yet to be formulated, including considerations for the optimal quarantine length. Motivated by the situation of small island nations, which will probably experience the introduction of pandemic influenza via just one airport, we examined the potential effectiveness of quarantine as a border control measure. Methods: Analysing the detailed epidemiologic characteristics of influenza, the effectiveness of quarantine at the borders of islands was modelled as the relative reduction of the risk of releasing infectious individuals into the community, explicitly accounting for the presence of asymptomatic infected individuals. The potential benefit of adding the use of rapid diagnostic testing to the quarantine process was also considered. Results: We predict that 95% and 99% effectiveness in preventing the release of infectious individuals into the community could be achieved with quarantine periods of longer than 4.7 and 8.6 days, respectively. If rapid diagnostic testing is combined with quarantine, the lengths of quarantine to achieve 95% and 99% effectiveness could be shortened to 2.6 and 5.7 days, respectively. Sensitivity analysis revealed that quarantine alone for 8.7 days or quarantine for 5.7 days combined with using rapid diagnostic testing could prevent secondary transmissions caused by the released infectious individuals for a plausible range of prevalence at the source country (up to 10%) and for a modest number of incoming travellers (up to 8000 individuals). Conclusion: Quarantine atthe borders of island nations could contribute substantially to preventing the arrival of pandemic influenza (or at least delaying the arrival date). For small island nations we recommend consideration of quarantine alone for 9 days or quarantine for 6 days combined with using rapid diagnostic testing (if available). © 2009 Nishiura et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.en_HK
dc.languageengen_US
dc.publisherBioMed Central Ltd. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.biomedcentral.com/bmcinfectdis/en_HK
dc.relation.ispartofBMC Infectious Diseasesen_HK
dc.subjectReferences (53) View In Table Layouten_US
dc.titleQuarantine for pandemic influenza control at the borders of small island nationsen_HK
dc.typeArticleen_HK
dc.identifier.emailNishiura, H:nishiura@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.authorityNishiura, H=rp01488en_HK
dc.description.naturepublished_or_final_versionen_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1186/1471-2334-9-27en_HK
dc.identifier.pmid19284571-
dc.identifier.pmcidPMC2670846-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-65349139495en_HK
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-65349139495&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_HK
dc.identifier.volume9en_HK
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000265837400001-
dc.publisher.placeUnited Kingdomen_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridNishiura, H=7005501836en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridWilson, N=23500712800en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridBaker, MG=7403075366en_HK
dc.identifier.citeulike4166734-

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