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Article: How to find natural reservoir hosts from endemic prevalence in a multi-host population: A case study of influenza in waterfowl

TitleHow to find natural reservoir hosts from endemic prevalence in a multi-host population: A case study of influenza in waterfowl
Authors
KeywordsBirds
Disease Reservoirs
Epidemiology
Estimation Techniques
Influenza
Models (Theoretical)
Issue Date2009
PublisherElsevier BV. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/714736/description#description
Citation
Epidemics, 2009, v. 1 n. 2, p. 118-128 How to Cite?
AbstractThe transmission dynamics of infectious diseases critically depend on reservoir hosts, which can sustain the pathogen (or maintain the transmission) in the population even in the absence of other hosts. Although a theoretical foundation of the transmission dynamics in a multi-host population has been established, no quantitative methods exist for the identification of natural reservoir hosts. For a host to maintain the transmission alone, the host-specific reproduction number (U), interpreted as the average number of secondary transmissions caused by a single primary case in the host(s) of interest in the absence of all other hosts, must be greater than unity. If the host-excluded reproduction number (Q), representing the average number of secondary transmissions per single primary case in other hosts in the absence of the host(s) of interest, is below unity, transmission cannot be maintained in the multi-host population in the absence of the focal host(s). The present study proposes a simple method for the identification of reservoir host(s) from observed endemic prevalence data across a range of host species. As an example, we analyze an aggregated surveillance dataset of influenza A virus in wild birds among which dabbling ducks exhibit higher prevalence compared to other bird species. Since the heterogeneous contact patterns between different host species are not directly observable, we test four different contact structures to account for the uncertainty. Meeting the requirements of U > 1 and Q < 1 for all four different contact structures, mallards and other dabbling ducks most likely constitute the reservoir community which plays a predominant role in maintaining the transmission of influenza A virus in the water bird population. We further discuss epidemiological issues which are concerned with the interpretation of influenza prevalence data, identifying key features to be fully clarified in the future. © 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/134210
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 1.578
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 1.268
ISI Accession Number ID
Funding AgencyGrant Number
Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO)851.40.073
851.40.074
816.01.007
Funding Information:

This study was supported through the Bird Health programme within the International Polar Year by The Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO; grants 851.40.073, 851.40.074 and 816.01.007). This is publication 4526 of the Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW).

References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorNishiura, Hen_HK
dc.contributor.authorHoye, Ben_HK
dc.contributor.authorKlaassen, Men_HK
dc.contributor.authorBauer, Sen_HK
dc.contributor.authorHeesterbeek, Hen_HK
dc.date.accessioned2011-06-13T07:20:51Z-
dc.date.available2011-06-13T07:20:51Z-
dc.date.issued2009en_HK
dc.identifier.citationEpidemics, 2009, v. 1 n. 2, p. 118-128en_HK
dc.identifier.issn1755-4365en_HK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/134210-
dc.description.abstractThe transmission dynamics of infectious diseases critically depend on reservoir hosts, which can sustain the pathogen (or maintain the transmission) in the population even in the absence of other hosts. Although a theoretical foundation of the transmission dynamics in a multi-host population has been established, no quantitative methods exist for the identification of natural reservoir hosts. For a host to maintain the transmission alone, the host-specific reproduction number (U), interpreted as the average number of secondary transmissions caused by a single primary case in the host(s) of interest in the absence of all other hosts, must be greater than unity. If the host-excluded reproduction number (Q), representing the average number of secondary transmissions per single primary case in other hosts in the absence of the host(s) of interest, is below unity, transmission cannot be maintained in the multi-host population in the absence of the focal host(s). The present study proposes a simple method for the identification of reservoir host(s) from observed endemic prevalence data across a range of host species. As an example, we analyze an aggregated surveillance dataset of influenza A virus in wild birds among which dabbling ducks exhibit higher prevalence compared to other bird species. Since the heterogeneous contact patterns between different host species are not directly observable, we test four different contact structures to account for the uncertainty. Meeting the requirements of U > 1 and Q < 1 for all four different contact structures, mallards and other dabbling ducks most likely constitute the reservoir community which plays a predominant role in maintaining the transmission of influenza A virus in the water bird population. We further discuss epidemiological issues which are concerned with the interpretation of influenza prevalence data, identifying key features to be fully clarified in the future. © 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.en_HK
dc.languageengen_US
dc.publisherElsevier BV. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/714736/description#descriptionen_HK
dc.relation.ispartofEpidemicsen_HK
dc.subjectBirdsen_US
dc.subjectDisease Reservoirsen_US
dc.subjectEpidemiologyen_US
dc.subjectEstimation Techniquesen_US
dc.subjectInfluenzaen_US
dc.subjectModels (Theoretical)en_US
dc.subject.meshAnimalsen_HK
dc.subject.meshDisease Reservoirsen_HK
dc.subject.meshDucks - virologyen_HK
dc.subject.meshEndemic Diseasesen_HK
dc.subject.meshFresh Wateren_HK
dc.subject.meshInfluenza A virus - pathogenicityen_HK
dc.subject.meshInfluenza in Birds - epidemiology - transmission - virologyen_HK
dc.subject.meshModels, Biologicalen_HK
dc.subject.meshPopulation Dynamicsen_HK
dc.subject.meshPrevalenceen_HK
dc.titleHow to find natural reservoir hosts from endemic prevalence in a multi-host population: A case study of influenza in waterfowlen_HK
dc.typeArticleen_HK
dc.identifier.emailNishiura, H:nishiura@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.authorityNishiura, H=rp01488en_HK
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltexten_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.epidem.2009.04.002en_HK
dc.identifier.pmid21352759-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-67649476127en_HK
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-67649476127&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_HK
dc.identifier.volume1en_HK
dc.identifier.issue2en_HK
dc.identifier.spage118en_HK
dc.identifier.epage128en_HK
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000208232900007-
dc.publisher.placeNetherlandsen_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridNishiura, H=7005501836en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridHoye, B=26632061000en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridKlaassen, M=7004383496en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridBauer, S=8986752100en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridHeesterbeek, H=6507799504en_HK

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