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Article: The ideal reporting interval for an epidemic to objectively interpret the epidemiological time course

TitleThe ideal reporting interval for an epidemic to objectively interpret the epidemiological time course
Authors
KeywordsDisease outbreaks
Infection
Infectious disease reporting
Influenza
Smallpox
Statistical model
Issue Date2010
PublisherThe Royal Society. The Journal's web site is located at http://publishing.royalsociety.org/index.cfm?page=1572
Citation
Journal Of The Royal Society Interface, 2010, v. 7 n. 43, p. 297-307 How to Cite?
AbstractThe reporting interval of infectious diseases is often determined as a time unit in the calendar regardless of the epidemiological characteristics of the disease. No guidelines have been proposed to choose the reporting interval of infectious diseases. The present study aims at translating coarsely reported epidemic data into the reproduction number and clarifying the ideal reporting interval to offer detailed insights into the time course of an epidemic. We briefly revisit the dispersibility ratio, i.e. ratio of cases in successive reporting intervals, proposed by Clare Oswald Stallybrass, detecting technical flaws in the historical studies. We derive a corrected expression for this quantity and propose simple algorithms to estimate the effective reproduction number as a function of time, adjusting the reporting interval to the generation time of a disease and demonstrating a clear relationship among the generation-time distribution, reporting interval and growth rate of an epidemic. Our exercise suggests that an ideal reporting interval is the mean generation time, so that the ratio of cases in successive intervals can yield the reproduction number. When it is impractical to report observations every mean generation time, we also present an alternative method that enables us to obtain straightforward estimates of the reproduction number for any reporting interval that suits the practical purpose of infection control. © 2009 The Royal Society.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/134201
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 3.818
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 1.622
PubMed Central ID
ISI Accession Number ID
Funding AgencyGrant Number
Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO)918.56.620
851.40.074
College of Liberal Arts and Sciences of Arizona State University
Funding Information:

This work was supported by The Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO grant ID: 918.56.620 and 851.40.074). G. C. received funding from the College of Liberal Arts and Sciences of Arizona State University.

References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorNishiura, Hen_HK
dc.contributor.authorChowell, Gen_HK
dc.contributor.authorHeesterbeek, Hen_HK
dc.contributor.authorWallinga, Jen_HK
dc.date.accessioned2011-06-13T07:20:48Z-
dc.date.available2011-06-13T07:20:48Z-
dc.date.issued2010en_HK
dc.identifier.citationJournal Of The Royal Society Interface, 2010, v. 7 n. 43, p. 297-307en_HK
dc.identifier.issn1742-5689en_HK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/134201-
dc.description.abstractThe reporting interval of infectious diseases is often determined as a time unit in the calendar regardless of the epidemiological characteristics of the disease. No guidelines have been proposed to choose the reporting interval of infectious diseases. The present study aims at translating coarsely reported epidemic data into the reproduction number and clarifying the ideal reporting interval to offer detailed insights into the time course of an epidemic. We briefly revisit the dispersibility ratio, i.e. ratio of cases in successive reporting intervals, proposed by Clare Oswald Stallybrass, detecting technical flaws in the historical studies. We derive a corrected expression for this quantity and propose simple algorithms to estimate the effective reproduction number as a function of time, adjusting the reporting interval to the generation time of a disease and demonstrating a clear relationship among the generation-time distribution, reporting interval and growth rate of an epidemic. Our exercise suggests that an ideal reporting interval is the mean generation time, so that the ratio of cases in successive intervals can yield the reproduction number. When it is impractical to report observations every mean generation time, we also present an alternative method that enables us to obtain straightforward estimates of the reproduction number for any reporting interval that suits the practical purpose of infection control. © 2009 The Royal Society.en_HK
dc.languageengen_US
dc.publisherThe Royal Society. The Journal's web site is located at http://publishing.royalsociety.org/index.cfm?page=1572en_HK
dc.relation.ispartofJournal of the Royal Society Interfaceen_HK
dc.subjectDisease outbreaksen_HK
dc.subjectInfectionen_HK
dc.subjectInfectious disease reportingen_HK
dc.subjectInfluenzaen_HK
dc.subjectSmallpoxen_HK
dc.subjectStatistical modelen_HK
dc.titleThe ideal reporting interval for an epidemic to objectively interpret the epidemiological time courseen_HK
dc.typeArticleen_HK
dc.identifier.emailNishiura, H:nishiura@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.authorityNishiura, H=rp01488en_HK
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltexten_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1098/rsif.2009.0153en_HK
dc.identifier.pmid19570792-
dc.identifier.pmcidPMC2842610-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-74049100933en_HK
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-74049100933&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_HK
dc.identifier.volume7en_HK
dc.identifier.issue43en_HK
dc.identifier.spage297en_HK
dc.identifier.epage307en_HK
dc.identifier.eissn1742-5662-
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000272995800006-
dc.publisher.placeUnited Kingdomen_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridNishiura, H=7005501836en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridChowell, G=9845935500en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridHeesterbeek, H=6507799504en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridWallinga, J=7003807945en_HK
dc.identifier.citeulike5042929-

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