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Article: Time variations in the generation time of an infectious disease: Implications for sampling to appropriately quantify transmission potential

TitleTime variations in the generation time of an infectious disease: Implications for sampling to appropriately quantify transmission potential
Authors
KeywordsEpidemiology
Influenza
Model
Plague
Transmission
Issue Date2010
PublisherAmerican Institute of Mathematical Sciences
Citation
Mathematical Biosciences And Engineering, 2010, v. 7 n. 4, p. 851-869 How to Cite?
AbstractAlthough the generation time of an infectious disease plays a key role in estimating its transmission potential, the impact of the sampling time of generation times on the estimation procedure has yet to be clarified. The present study defines the period and cohort generation times, both of which are timeinhomogeneous, as a function of the infection time of secondary and primary cases, respectively. By means of analytical and numerical approaches, it is shown that the period generation time increases with calendar time, whereas the cohort generation time decreases as the incidence increases. The initial growth phase of an epidemic of Asian influenza A (H2N2) in the Netherlands in 1957 was reanalyzed, and estimates of the basic reproduction number, R0, from the Lotka-Euler equation were examined. It was found that the sampling time of generation time during the course of the epidemic introduced a time-effect to the estimate of R0. Other historical data of a primary pneumonic plague in Manchuria in 1911 were also examined to help illustrate the empirical evidence of the period generation time. If the serial intervals, which eventually determine the generation times, are sampled during the course of an epidemic, direct application of the sampled generation-time distribution to the Lotka-Euler equation leads to a biased estimate of R0. An appropriate quantification of the transmission potential requires the estimation of the cohort generation time during the initial growth phase of an epidemic or adjustment of the time-effect (e.g., adjustment of the growth rate of the epidemic during the sampling time) on the period generation time. A similar issue also applies to the estimation of the effective reproduction number as a function of calendar time. Mathematical properties of the generation time distribution in a heterogeneously mixing population need to be clarified further.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/134190
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 1.006
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 0.608
ISI Accession Number ID
Funding AgencyGrant Number
JST
Funding Information:

The work of H Nishiura was supported by the JST PRESTO program.

References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorNishiura, Hen_HK
dc.date.accessioned2011-06-13T07:20:45Z-
dc.date.available2011-06-13T07:20:45Z-
dc.date.issued2010en_HK
dc.identifier.citationMathematical Biosciences And Engineering, 2010, v. 7 n. 4, p. 851-869en_HK
dc.identifier.issn1547-1063en_HK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/134190-
dc.description.abstractAlthough the generation time of an infectious disease plays a key role in estimating its transmission potential, the impact of the sampling time of generation times on the estimation procedure has yet to be clarified. The present study defines the period and cohort generation times, both of which are timeinhomogeneous, as a function of the infection time of secondary and primary cases, respectively. By means of analytical and numerical approaches, it is shown that the period generation time increases with calendar time, whereas the cohort generation time decreases as the incidence increases. The initial growth phase of an epidemic of Asian influenza A (H2N2) in the Netherlands in 1957 was reanalyzed, and estimates of the basic reproduction number, R0, from the Lotka-Euler equation were examined. It was found that the sampling time of generation time during the course of the epidemic introduced a time-effect to the estimate of R0. Other historical data of a primary pneumonic plague in Manchuria in 1911 were also examined to help illustrate the empirical evidence of the period generation time. If the serial intervals, which eventually determine the generation times, are sampled during the course of an epidemic, direct application of the sampled generation-time distribution to the Lotka-Euler equation leads to a biased estimate of R0. An appropriate quantification of the transmission potential requires the estimation of the cohort generation time during the initial growth phase of an epidemic or adjustment of the time-effect (e.g., adjustment of the growth rate of the epidemic during the sampling time) on the period generation time. A similar issue also applies to the estimation of the effective reproduction number as a function of calendar time. Mathematical properties of the generation time distribution in a heterogeneously mixing population need to be clarified further.en_HK
dc.languageengen_US
dc.publisherAmerican Institute of Mathematical Sciencesen_US
dc.relation.ispartofMathematical Biosciences and Engineeringen_HK
dc.subjectEpidemiologyen_US
dc.subjectInfluenzaen_US
dc.subjectModelen_US
dc.subjectPlagueen_US
dc.subjectTransmissionen_US
dc.subject.meshBasic Reproduction Numberen_HK
dc.subject.meshChina - epidemiologyen_HK
dc.subject.meshCommunicable Diseases - epidemiology - history - transmissionen_HK
dc.subject.meshHistory, 20th Centuryen_HK
dc.subject.meshHumansen_HK
dc.subject.meshIncidenceen_HK
dc.subject.meshInfluenza A Virus, H2N2 Subtypeen_HK
dc.subject.meshInfluenza, Human - epidemiology - history - transmissionen_HK
dc.subject.meshModels, Biologicalen_HK
dc.subject.meshNetherlands - epidemiologyen_HK
dc.subject.meshPlague - epidemiology - history - transmissionen_HK
dc.subject.meshSelection Biasen_HK
dc.titleTime variations in the generation time of an infectious disease: Implications for sampling to appropriately quantify transmission potentialen_HK
dc.typeArticleen_HK
dc.identifier.emailNishiura, H:nishiura@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.authorityNishiura, H=rp01488en_HK
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltexten_US
dc.identifier.doi10.3934/mbe.2010.7.851en_HK
dc.identifier.pmid21077712-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-77958038941en_HK
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-77958038941&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_HK
dc.identifier.volume7en_HK
dc.identifier.issue4en_HK
dc.identifier.spage851en_HK
dc.identifier.epage869en_HK
dc.identifier.eissn1551-0018-
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000283346800009-
dc.publisher.placeUnited Statesen_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridNishiura, H=7005501836en_HK

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