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Article: Estimation of the incubation period of influenza A (H1N1-2009) among imported cases: Addressing censoring using outbreak data at the origin of importation

TitleEstimation of the incubation period of influenza A (H1N1-2009) among imported cases: Addressing censoring using outbreak data at the origin of importation
Authors
KeywordsConfidence interval
Likelihood function
Pandemic
Statistical model
Issue Date2011
PublisherAcademic Press. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.elsevier.com/locate/yjtbi
Citation
Journal Of Theoretical Biology, 2011, v. 272 n. 1, p. 123-130 How to Cite?
AbstractEmpirical estimates of the incubation period of influenza A (H1N1-2009) have been limited. We estimated the incubation period among confirmed imported cases who traveled to Japan from Hawaii during the early phase of the 2009 pandemic (n=72). We addressed censoring and employed an infection-age structured argument to explicitly model the daily frequency of illness onset after departure. We assumed uniform and exponential distributions for the frequency of exposure in Hawaii, and the hazard rate of infection for the latter assumption was retrieved, in Hawaii, from local outbreak data. The maximum likelihood estimates of the median incubation period range from 1.43 to 1.64 days according to different modeling assumptions, consistent with a published estimate based on a New York school outbreak. The likelihood values of the different modeling assumptions do not differ greatly from each other, although models with the exponential assumption yield slightly shorter incubation periods than those with the uniform exposure assumption. Differences between our proposed approach and a published method for doubly interval-censored analysis highlight the importance of accounting for the dependence of the frequency of exposure on the survival function of incubating individuals among imported cases. A truncation of the density function of the incubation period due to an absence of illness onset during the exposure period also needs to be considered. When the data generating process is similar to that among imported cases, and when the incubation period is close to or shorter than the length of exposure, accounting for these aspects is critical for long exposure times. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/134183
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 2.049
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 1.089
ISI Accession Number ID
Funding AgencyGrant Number
Japan Science and Technology Agency
Funding Information:

HN was supported by the Japan Science and Technology Agency PRESTO program.

References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorNishiura, Hen_HK
dc.contributor.authorInaba, Hen_HK
dc.date.accessioned2011-06-13T07:20:43Z-
dc.date.available2011-06-13T07:20:43Z-
dc.date.issued2011en_HK
dc.identifier.citationJournal Of Theoretical Biology, 2011, v. 272 n. 1, p. 123-130en_HK
dc.identifier.issn0022-5193en_HK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/134183-
dc.description.abstractEmpirical estimates of the incubation period of influenza A (H1N1-2009) have been limited. We estimated the incubation period among confirmed imported cases who traveled to Japan from Hawaii during the early phase of the 2009 pandemic (n=72). We addressed censoring and employed an infection-age structured argument to explicitly model the daily frequency of illness onset after departure. We assumed uniform and exponential distributions for the frequency of exposure in Hawaii, and the hazard rate of infection for the latter assumption was retrieved, in Hawaii, from local outbreak data. The maximum likelihood estimates of the median incubation period range from 1.43 to 1.64 days according to different modeling assumptions, consistent with a published estimate based on a New York school outbreak. The likelihood values of the different modeling assumptions do not differ greatly from each other, although models with the exponential assumption yield slightly shorter incubation periods than those with the uniform exposure assumption. Differences between our proposed approach and a published method for doubly interval-censored analysis highlight the importance of accounting for the dependence of the frequency of exposure on the survival function of incubating individuals among imported cases. A truncation of the density function of the incubation period due to an absence of illness onset during the exposure period also needs to be considered. When the data generating process is similar to that among imported cases, and when the incubation period is close to or shorter than the length of exposure, accounting for these aspects is critical for long exposure times. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd.en_HK
dc.languageengen_US
dc.publisherAcademic Press. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.elsevier.com/locate/yjtbien_HK
dc.relation.ispartofJournal of Theoretical Biologyen_HK
dc.subjectConfidence intervalen_HK
dc.subjectLikelihood functionen_HK
dc.subjectPandemicen_HK
dc.subjectStatistical modelen_HK
dc.subject.meshDisease Outbreaks - statistics and numerical data-
dc.subject.meshHawaii - epidemiology-
dc.subject.meshInfectious Disease Incubation Period-
dc.subject.meshInfluenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype - physiology-
dc.subject.meshInfluenza, Human - epidemiology - transmission - virology-
dc.titleEstimation of the incubation period of influenza A (H1N1-2009) among imported cases: Addressing censoring using outbreak data at the origin of importationen_HK
dc.typeArticleen_HK
dc.identifier.emailNishiura, H:nishiura@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.authorityNishiura, H=rp01488en_HK
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltexten_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.jtbi.2010.12.017en_HK
dc.identifier.pmid21168422-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-78650594227en_HK
dc.identifier.hkuros185317-
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-78650594227&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_HK
dc.identifier.volume272en_HK
dc.identifier.issue1en_HK
dc.identifier.spage123en_HK
dc.identifier.epage130en_HK
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000287227700013-
dc.publisher.placeUnited Kingdomen_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridNishiura, H=7005501836en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridInaba, H=7202113278en_HK
dc.identifier.citeulike8456123-

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