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Article: Modelling potential responses to severe acute respiratory syndrome in Japan: The role of initial attack size, precaution, and quarantine

TitleModelling potential responses to severe acute respiratory syndrome in Japan: The role of initial attack size, precaution, and quarantine
Authors
KeywordsRegional Index: Asia
Eurasia
Far East
Japan
Issue Date2004
PublisherB M J Publishing Group. The Journal's web site is located at http://jech.bmjjournals.com/
Citation
Journal Of Epidemiology And Community Health, 2004, v. 58 n. 3, p. 186-191 How to Cite?
AbstractBackground: There has been an outbreak of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) worldwide. With the use of detailed epidemiological data from other countries, this article describes the possible reason for the SARS epidemic not appearing in Japan, and simulates the impact of different control strategies that can break the transmission cycle of SARS associated coronavirus. Method: Mathematical modelling is used for predicting the epidemiological outcome and simultaneously for evaluating the effect of interventions on SARS. The study estimates the initial attack size that would result in failed invasion. Three different interventions have been incorporated into the public health response policies; precautionary public health measures, isolation of infected people, and quarantine of exposed humans. Results: The maximum number of humans newly infected could be roughly estimated on the basis of the initial attack size, using simple formulas. It is seen that the introduction of only a few cases into certain communities would not lead easily to an epidemic. The possible trajectories of SARS epidemic depend on the levels of public health interventions as quarantine and precautionary public health measures greatly affected the transmissibility of the disease. It is shown that there exist threshold levels of interventions at which the SARS epidemic settles down. Conclusion: Initial attack size is one of the determinants of whether SARS can successfully invade the community or not. Two of the most effective policy procedures to prevent new infections would be to apply stringent precautionary measures and to impose quicker and more effective quarantine of the exposed populace.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/134172
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 3.865
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 1.890
PubMed Central ID
ISI Accession Number ID
References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorNishiura, Hen_HK
dc.contributor.authorPatanarapelert, Ken_HK
dc.contributor.authorSriprom, Men_HK
dc.contributor.authorSarakorn, Wen_HK
dc.contributor.authorSriyab, Sen_HK
dc.contributor.authorMing Tang, Ien_HK
dc.date.accessioned2011-06-13T07:20:39Z-
dc.date.available2011-06-13T07:20:39Z-
dc.date.issued2004en_HK
dc.identifier.citationJournal Of Epidemiology And Community Health, 2004, v. 58 n. 3, p. 186-191en_HK
dc.identifier.issn0143-005Xen_HK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/134172-
dc.description.abstractBackground: There has been an outbreak of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) worldwide. With the use of detailed epidemiological data from other countries, this article describes the possible reason for the SARS epidemic not appearing in Japan, and simulates the impact of different control strategies that can break the transmission cycle of SARS associated coronavirus. Method: Mathematical modelling is used for predicting the epidemiological outcome and simultaneously for evaluating the effect of interventions on SARS. The study estimates the initial attack size that would result in failed invasion. Three different interventions have been incorporated into the public health response policies; precautionary public health measures, isolation of infected people, and quarantine of exposed humans. Results: The maximum number of humans newly infected could be roughly estimated on the basis of the initial attack size, using simple formulas. It is seen that the introduction of only a few cases into certain communities would not lead easily to an epidemic. The possible trajectories of SARS epidemic depend on the levels of public health interventions as quarantine and precautionary public health measures greatly affected the transmissibility of the disease. It is shown that there exist threshold levels of interventions at which the SARS epidemic settles down. Conclusion: Initial attack size is one of the determinants of whether SARS can successfully invade the community or not. Two of the most effective policy procedures to prevent new infections would be to apply stringent precautionary measures and to impose quicker and more effective quarantine of the exposed populace.en_HK
dc.languageengen_US
dc.publisherB M J Publishing Group. The Journal's web site is located at http://jech.bmjjournals.com/en_HK
dc.relation.ispartofJournal of Epidemiology and Community Healthen_HK
dc.subjectRegional Index: Asiaen_US
dc.subjectEurasiaen_US
dc.subjectFar Easten_US
dc.subjectJapanen_US
dc.titleModelling potential responses to severe acute respiratory syndrome in Japan: The role of initial attack size, precaution, and quarantineen_HK
dc.typeArticleen_HK
dc.identifier.emailNishiura, H:nishiura@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.authorityNishiura, H=rp01488en_HK
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltexten_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1136/jech.2003.014894en_HK
dc.identifier.pmid14966229-
dc.identifier.pmcidPMC1732706-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-1342322702en_HK
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-1342322702&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_HK
dc.identifier.volume58en_HK
dc.identifier.issue3en_HK
dc.identifier.spage186en_HK
dc.identifier.epage191en_HK
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000188970300005-
dc.publisher.placeUnited Kingdomen_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridNishiura, H=7005501836en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridPatanarapelert, K=6508058783en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridSriprom, M=6507757787en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridSarakorn, W=6504660155en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridSriyab, S=6503857023en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridMing Tang, I=6506047386en_HK

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