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Article: Predicting the future trend of drug-resistant tuberculosis in Thailand: Assessing the impact of control strategies

TitlePredicting the future trend of drug-resistant tuberculosis in Thailand: Assessing the impact of control strategies
Authors
KeywordsChemicals And Cas Registry Numbers
Issue Date2004
PublisherSoutheast Asian Ministers of Education Organisation (SEAMEO), Regional Tropical Medicine & Public Health Project (TROPMED). The Journal's web site is located at http://www.tm.mahidol.ac.th/en/seameo/publication.htm
Citation
Southeast Asian Journal Of Tropical Medicine And Public Health, 2004, v. 35 n. 3, p. 649-656 How to Cite?
AbstractThe purposes of this study are to predict the future trend of drug-sensitive and resistant tuberculosis (TB) in Thailand, and to assess the impact of different control strategies on the generation of drug resistant TB, through the use of mathematical analysis. We assume that the present status of TB and the emergence of drug-resistant TB in Thailand are the consequence of past epidemics. Control strategies in the model are defined by specifying the value of the effective treatment rate (baseline value = 0.74) and the relative treatment efficacy (baseline value = 0.84). It is predicted that the total number of new TB cases would continue to decrease at the current level of intervention. Although a dramatic decline in the incidence rate of drug-sensitive cases is expected, drug-resistant cases are predicted to increase gradually, so that more than half of the TB strains would not be drug-sensitive after 2020. The prediction is not greatly altered by improving the interventions. They could, however, delay the emergence of drug-resistant strains for a few years. Our study demonstrates it would be impossible to avoid the continued emergence of drug-resistant TB in the future. It is pointed out that there are urgent needs to ensure adequate supervision and monitoring, to insure treatment of 100% of the targeted population with Directly Observed Therapy.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/134169
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 0.773
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 0.423
References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorNishiura, Hen_HK
dc.contributor.authorPatanarapelert, Ken_HK
dc.contributor.authorMing Tang, Ien_HK
dc.date.accessioned2011-06-13T07:20:37Z-
dc.date.available2011-06-13T07:20:37Z-
dc.date.issued2004en_HK
dc.identifier.citationSoutheast Asian Journal Of Tropical Medicine And Public Health, 2004, v. 35 n. 3, p. 649-656en_HK
dc.identifier.issn0125-1562en_HK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/134169-
dc.description.abstractThe purposes of this study are to predict the future trend of drug-sensitive and resistant tuberculosis (TB) in Thailand, and to assess the impact of different control strategies on the generation of drug resistant TB, through the use of mathematical analysis. We assume that the present status of TB and the emergence of drug-resistant TB in Thailand are the consequence of past epidemics. Control strategies in the model are defined by specifying the value of the effective treatment rate (baseline value = 0.74) and the relative treatment efficacy (baseline value = 0.84). It is predicted that the total number of new TB cases would continue to decrease at the current level of intervention. Although a dramatic decline in the incidence rate of drug-sensitive cases is expected, drug-resistant cases are predicted to increase gradually, so that more than half of the TB strains would not be drug-sensitive after 2020. The prediction is not greatly altered by improving the interventions. They could, however, delay the emergence of drug-resistant strains for a few years. Our study demonstrates it would be impossible to avoid the continued emergence of drug-resistant TB in the future. It is pointed out that there are urgent needs to ensure adequate supervision and monitoring, to insure treatment of 100% of the targeted population with Directly Observed Therapy.en_HK
dc.languageengen_US
dc.publisherSoutheast Asian Ministers of Education Organisation (SEAMEO), Regional Tropical Medicine & Public Health Project (TROPMED). The Journal's web site is located at http://www.tm.mahidol.ac.th/en/seameo/publication.htmen_HK
dc.relation.ispartofSoutheast Asian Journal of Tropical Medicine and Public Healthen_HK
dc.subjectChemicals And Cas Registry Numbersen_US
dc.subject.meshAntibiotics, Antitubercular - pharmacology - therapeutic useen_HK
dc.subject.meshChemopreventionen_HK
dc.subject.meshCommunicable Disease Controlen_HK
dc.subject.meshDirectly Observed Therapyen_HK
dc.subject.meshDrug Resistance, Multiple, Bacterialen_HK
dc.subject.meshForecastingen_HK
dc.subject.meshHumansen_HK
dc.subject.meshIncidenceen_HK
dc.subject.meshModels, Theoreticalen_HK
dc.subject.meshMycobacterium tuberculosis - drug effectsen_HK
dc.subject.meshRifampin - pharmacology - therapeutic useen_HK
dc.subject.meshThailand - epidemiologyen_HK
dc.subject.meshTuberculosis, Multidrug-Resistant - drug therapy - epidemiology - prevention & controlen_HK
dc.titlePredicting the future trend of drug-resistant tuberculosis in Thailand: Assessing the impact of control strategiesen_HK
dc.typeArticleen_HK
dc.identifier.emailNishiura, H:nishiura@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.authorityNishiura, H=rp01488en_HK
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltexten_US
dc.identifier.pmid15689082-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-8444243383en_HK
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-8444243383&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_HK
dc.identifier.volume35en_HK
dc.identifier.issue3en_HK
dc.identifier.spage649en_HK
dc.identifier.epage656en_HK
dc.publisher.placeThailanden_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridNishiura, H=7005501836en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridPatanarapelert, K=6508058783en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridMing Tang, I=6506047386en_HK

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