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Article: Modeling for a smallpox-vaccination policy against possible bioterrorism in Japan: The impact of long-lasting vaccinal immunity

TitleModeling for a smallpox-vaccination policy against possible bioterrorism in Japan: The impact of long-lasting vaccinal immunity
Authors
KeywordsBioterrorism
Immunity
Models, mathematical
Smallpox
Vaccination
Issue Date2004
Citation
Journal Of Epidemiology, 2004, v. 14 n. 2, p. 41-50 How to Cite?
AbstractBackground: There has been concern that variola virus might be held clandestinely elsewhere. Through constructing mathematical model based on the detailed epidemiologic data, we focused on simulating the various possible scenarios arising from a bioterrorist attack whereby smallpox virus was introduced into Japan, and sought to develop the most effective way of nationwide vaccination policy based on the theory of residual immunity. Method: The analysis is based on a deterministic mathematical model which predicted the epidemiologic outcome while simultaneously evaluating the effect of any specified control strategy of the smallpox epidemic. To clarify the required amount of vaccines, we performed mathematical analysis for hypothetical population to acquire herd immunity based on long-lasting vaccinal immunity. Results: It is demonstrated that the crude size of the potential epidemic could be greatly affected by possible level of residual immunity. The results also suggest the possibility to develop optimal distribution of nationwide vaccination according to the immune status. The prevalence at 50th day among population without immunity in our simulation would be approximately 405 times greater than expected population with residual immunity, and required amount of vaccines for equal distribution would be 3.13 times more than optimal distribution. Conlusion: The mathematical model formulated could determine the vaccination priority based on the real status of immunity which required much less amount of vaccinations than would be calculated using an equal distribution program. It is therefore crucial to determine the real immunity status of the population via epiderniologic studies. Copyright © 2005 by Japan Epidemiological Association.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/134168
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 2.546
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 1.463
ISI Accession Number ID
References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorNishiura, Hen_HK
dc.contributor.authorTang, IMen_HK
dc.date.accessioned2011-06-13T07:20:37Z-
dc.date.available2011-06-13T07:20:37Z-
dc.date.issued2004en_HK
dc.identifier.citationJournal Of Epidemiology, 2004, v. 14 n. 2, p. 41-50en_HK
dc.identifier.issn0917-5040en_HK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/134168-
dc.description.abstractBackground: There has been concern that variola virus might be held clandestinely elsewhere. Through constructing mathematical model based on the detailed epidemiologic data, we focused on simulating the various possible scenarios arising from a bioterrorist attack whereby smallpox virus was introduced into Japan, and sought to develop the most effective way of nationwide vaccination policy based on the theory of residual immunity. Method: The analysis is based on a deterministic mathematical model which predicted the epidemiologic outcome while simultaneously evaluating the effect of any specified control strategy of the smallpox epidemic. To clarify the required amount of vaccines, we performed mathematical analysis for hypothetical population to acquire herd immunity based on long-lasting vaccinal immunity. Results: It is demonstrated that the crude size of the potential epidemic could be greatly affected by possible level of residual immunity. The results also suggest the possibility to develop optimal distribution of nationwide vaccination according to the immune status. The prevalence at 50th day among population without immunity in our simulation would be approximately 405 times greater than expected population with residual immunity, and required amount of vaccines for equal distribution would be 3.13 times more than optimal distribution. Conlusion: The mathematical model formulated could determine the vaccination priority based on the real status of immunity which required much less amount of vaccinations than would be calculated using an equal distribution program. It is therefore crucial to determine the real immunity status of the population via epiderniologic studies. Copyright © 2005 by Japan Epidemiological Association.en_HK
dc.languageengen_US
dc.relation.ispartofJournal of Epidemiologyen_HK
dc.subjectBioterrorismen_HK
dc.subjectImmunityen_HK
dc.subjectModels, mathematicalen_HK
dc.subjectSmallpoxen_HK
dc.subjectVaccinationen_HK
dc.titleModeling for a smallpox-vaccination policy against possible bioterrorism in Japan: The impact of long-lasting vaccinal immunityen_HK
dc.typeArticleen_HK
dc.identifier.emailNishiura, H:nishiura@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.authorityNishiura, H=rp01488en_HK
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltexten_US
dc.identifier.doi10.2188/jea.14.41en_HK
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-2542628925en_HK
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-2542628925&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_HK
dc.identifier.volume14en_HK
dc.identifier.issue2en_HK
dc.identifier.spage41en_HK
dc.identifier.epage50en_HK
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000221258800002-
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridNishiura, H=7005501836en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridTang, IM=7102142557en_HK

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