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Article: Transmission potential of primary pneumonic plague: Time inhomogeneous evaluation based on historical documents of the transmission network

TitleTransmission potential of primary pneumonic plague: Time inhomogeneous evaluation based on historical documents of the transmission network
Authors
KeywordsRegional Index: Asia
China
Eurasia
Far East
Indian Ocean
Indian Ocean Islands
Liaoning
Madagascar
Shenyang
Issue Date2006
PublisherB M J Publishing Group. The Journal's web site is located at http://jech.bmjjournals.com/
Citation
Journal Of Epidemiology And Community Health, 2006, v. 60 n. 7, p. 640-645 How to Cite?
AbstractBackground: The transmission potential of primary pneumonic plague, caused by Yersinia pestis, is one of the key epidemiological determinants of a potential biological weapon, and requires clarification and time dependent interpretation. Method: This study estimated the reproduction number and its time dependent change through investigations of outbreaks in Mukden, China (1946), and Madagascar (1957). Reconstruction of an epidemic tree, which shows who infected whom, from the observed dates of onset was performed using the serial interval. Furthermore, a likelihood based approach was used for the time inhomogeneous evaluation of the outbreaks for which there was scarcity of cases. Results: According to the estimates, the basic reproduction number, R 0, was on the order of 2.8 to 3.5, which is higher than previous estimates. The lower 95% confidence intervals of R 0 exceeded unity. The effective reproduction number declined below unity after control measures were introduced in Mukden, and before the official implementation in Madagascar. Conclusion: While the time course of the latter outbreak could be explained by intrinsic factors and stochasticity in this remote and scarcely populated area, the former in Mukden suggests the possible continued chains of transmission in highly populated areas. Using the proposed methods, the who infected whom information permitted the evaluation of the time inhomogeneous transmission potential in relation to public health measures. The study also tackles the problem of statistical estimation of R 0 based on similar information, which was previously performed simply by counting the number of secondary transmissions regardless of time.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/134163
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 3.865
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 1.890
PubMed Central ID
ISI Accession Number ID
References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorNishiura, Hen_HK
dc.contributor.authorSchwehm, Men_HK
dc.contributor.authorKakehashi, Men_HK
dc.contributor.authorEichner, Men_HK
dc.date.accessioned2011-06-13T07:20:35Z-
dc.date.available2011-06-13T07:20:35Z-
dc.date.issued2006en_HK
dc.identifier.citationJournal Of Epidemiology And Community Health, 2006, v. 60 n. 7, p. 640-645en_HK
dc.identifier.issn0143-005Xen_HK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/134163-
dc.description.abstractBackground: The transmission potential of primary pneumonic plague, caused by Yersinia pestis, is one of the key epidemiological determinants of a potential biological weapon, and requires clarification and time dependent interpretation. Method: This study estimated the reproduction number and its time dependent change through investigations of outbreaks in Mukden, China (1946), and Madagascar (1957). Reconstruction of an epidemic tree, which shows who infected whom, from the observed dates of onset was performed using the serial interval. Furthermore, a likelihood based approach was used for the time inhomogeneous evaluation of the outbreaks for which there was scarcity of cases. Results: According to the estimates, the basic reproduction number, R 0, was on the order of 2.8 to 3.5, which is higher than previous estimates. The lower 95% confidence intervals of R 0 exceeded unity. The effective reproduction number declined below unity after control measures were introduced in Mukden, and before the official implementation in Madagascar. Conclusion: While the time course of the latter outbreak could be explained by intrinsic factors and stochasticity in this remote and scarcely populated area, the former in Mukden suggests the possible continued chains of transmission in highly populated areas. Using the proposed methods, the who infected whom information permitted the evaluation of the time inhomogeneous transmission potential in relation to public health measures. The study also tackles the problem of statistical estimation of R 0 based on similar information, which was previously performed simply by counting the number of secondary transmissions regardless of time.en_HK
dc.languageengen_US
dc.publisherB M J Publishing Group. The Journal's web site is located at http://jech.bmjjournals.com/en_HK
dc.relation.ispartofJournal of Epidemiology and Community Healthen_HK
dc.subjectRegional Index: Asiaen_US
dc.subjectChinaen_US
dc.subjectEurasiaen_US
dc.subjectFar Easten_US
dc.subjectIndian Oceanen_US
dc.subjectIndian Ocean Islandsen_US
dc.subjectLiaoningen_US
dc.subjectMadagascaren_US
dc.subjectShenyangen_US
dc.titleTransmission potential of primary pneumonic plague: Time inhomogeneous evaluation based on historical documents of the transmission networken_HK
dc.typeArticleen_HK
dc.identifier.emailNishiura, H:nishiura@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.authorityNishiura, H=rp01488en_HK
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltexten_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1136/jech.2005.042424en_HK
dc.identifier.pmid16790838-
dc.identifier.pmcidPMC2566243-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-33745864325en_HK
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-33745864325&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_HK
dc.identifier.volume60en_HK
dc.identifier.issue7en_HK
dc.identifier.spage640en_HK
dc.identifier.epage645en_HK
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000238437200020-
dc.publisher.placeUnited Kingdomen_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridNishiura, H=7005501836en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridSchwehm, M=36980817300en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridKakehashi, M=6603910433en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridEichner, M=26643365500en_HK
dc.identifier.citeulike4037766-

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