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Article: Joint quantification of transmission dynamics and diagnostic accuracy applied to influenza

TitleJoint quantification of transmission dynamics and diagnostic accuracy applied to influenza
Authors
KeywordsDiagnosis
Epidemiology
Influenza
Model
Transmission
Issue Date2011
PublisherAmerican Institute of Mathematical Sciences.
Citation
Mathematical Biosciences And Engineering, 2011, v. 8 n. 1, p. 49-64 How to Cite?
AbstractThe influenza A (H1N1) pandemic 2009 posed an epidemiological challenge in ascertaining all cases. Although the counting of all influenza cases in real time is often not feasible, empirical observations always involve diagnostic test procedures. This offers an opportunity to jointly quantify transmission dynamics and diagnostic accuracy. We have developed a joint estimation procedure that exploits parsimonious models to describe the epidemic dynamics and that parameterizes the number of test positives and test negatives as a function of time. Our analyses of simulated data and data from the empirical observation of interpandemic influenza A (H1N1) from 2007-08 in Japan indicate that the proposed approach permits a more precise quantification of the transmission dynamics compared to methods that rely on test positive cases alone. The analysis of entry screening data for the H1N1 pandemic 2009 at Tokyo-Narita airport helped us quantify the very limited specificity of influenza-like illness in detecting actual influenza cases in the passengers. The joint quantification does not require us to condition diagnostic accuracy on any pre-defined study population. Our study suggests that by consistently reporting both test positive and test negative cases, the usefulness of extractable information from routine surveillance record of infectious diseases would be maximized.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/133670
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 1.006
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 0.608
ISI Accession Number ID
Funding AgencyGrant Number
Japan Science and Technology Agency
Funding Information:

The work of H Nishiura was supported by the Japan Science and Technology Agency PRESTO program.

References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorNishiura, Hen_HK
dc.date.accessioned2011-05-24T02:14:16Z-
dc.date.available2011-05-24T02:14:16Z-
dc.date.issued2011en_HK
dc.identifier.citationMathematical Biosciences And Engineering, 2011, v. 8 n. 1, p. 49-64en_HK
dc.identifier.issn1547-1063en_HK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/133670-
dc.description.abstractThe influenza A (H1N1) pandemic 2009 posed an epidemiological challenge in ascertaining all cases. Although the counting of all influenza cases in real time is often not feasible, empirical observations always involve diagnostic test procedures. This offers an opportunity to jointly quantify transmission dynamics and diagnostic accuracy. We have developed a joint estimation procedure that exploits parsimonious models to describe the epidemic dynamics and that parameterizes the number of test positives and test negatives as a function of time. Our analyses of simulated data and data from the empirical observation of interpandemic influenza A (H1N1) from 2007-08 in Japan indicate that the proposed approach permits a more precise quantification of the transmission dynamics compared to methods that rely on test positive cases alone. The analysis of entry screening data for the H1N1 pandemic 2009 at Tokyo-Narita airport helped us quantify the very limited specificity of influenza-like illness in detecting actual influenza cases in the passengers. The joint quantification does not require us to condition diagnostic accuracy on any pre-defined study population. Our study suggests that by consistently reporting both test positive and test negative cases, the usefulness of extractable information from routine surveillance record of infectious diseases would be maximized.en_HK
dc.languageengen_US
dc.publisherAmerican Institute of Mathematical Sciences.-
dc.relation.ispartofMathematical Biosciences and Engineeringen_HK
dc.rightsMathematical Biosciences and Engineering. Copyright © American Institute of Mathematical Sciences.-
dc.subjectDiagnosisen_HK
dc.subjectEpidemiologyen_HK
dc.subjectInfluenzaen_HK
dc.subjectModelen_HK
dc.subjectTransmissionen_HK
dc.titleJoint quantification of transmission dynamics and diagnostic accuracy applied to influenzaen_HK
dc.typeArticleen_HK
dc.identifier.openurlhttp://library.hku.hk:4550/resserv?sid=HKU:IR&issn=1547-1063&volume=8&issue=1&spage=49&epage=64&date=2011&atitle=Joint+quantification+of+transmission+dynamics+and+diagnostic+accuracy+applied+to+influenza-
dc.identifier.emailNishiura, H:nishiura@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.authorityNishiura, H=rp01488en_HK
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltext-
dc.identifier.doi10.3934/mbe.2011.8.49en_HK
dc.identifier.pmid21361399-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-78651350470en_HK
dc.identifier.hkuros185319en_US
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-78651350470&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_HK
dc.identifier.volume8en_HK
dc.identifier.issue1en_HK
dc.identifier.spage49en_HK
dc.identifier.epage64en_HK
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000286879500004-
dc.publisher.placeUnited Statesen_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridNishiura, H=7005501836en_HK

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