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Article: The effective reproduction number of pandemic influenza: Prospective estimation
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TitleThe effective reproduction number of pandemic influenza: Prospective estimation
 
AuthorsCowling, BJ2
Lau, MSY2
Ho, LM2
Chuang, SK3
Tsang, T3
Liu, SH1
Leung, PY1
Lo, SV1
Lau, EHY2
 
Issue Date2010
 
PublisherLippincott Williams & Wilkins. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.epidem.com
 
CitationEpidemiology, 2010, v. 21 n. 6, p. 842-846 [How to Cite?]
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/EDE.0b013e3181f20977
 
AbstractBackground: Timely estimation of the transmissibility of a novel pandemic influenza virus was a public health priority in 2009. Methods: We extended methods for prospective estimation of the effective reproduction number (R t) over time in an emerging epidemic to allow for reporting delays and repeated importations. We estimated Rt based on case notifications and hospitalizations associated with laboratory-confirmed pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus infections in Hong Kong from June through October 2009. Results: Rt declined from around 1.4-1.5 at the start of the local epidemic to around 1.1-1.2 later in the summer, suggesting changes in transmissibility perhaps related to school vacations or seasonality. Estimates of Rt based on hospitalizations of confirmed H1N1 cases closely matched estimates based on case notifications. Conclusion: Real-time monitoring of the effective reproduction number is feasible and can provide useful information to public health authorities for situational awareness and calibration of mitigation strategies. © 2010 by Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.
 
ISSN1044-3983
2013 Impact Factor: 6.178
 
DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1097/EDE.0b013e3181f20977
 
PubMed Central IDPMC3084966
 
ISI Accession Number IDWOS:000282600600015
Funding AgencyGrant Number
Research Fund for the Control of Infectious Disease, Food and Health Bureau, Government of the Hong Kong SARHK-09-04-02
Harvard Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics from the US National Institutes of Health Models1 U54 GM088558
Hong Kong UniversityAoE/M-12/06
Funding Information:

Supported by the Research Fund for the Control of Infectious Disease, Food and Health Bureau, Government of the Hong Kong SAR (HK-09-04-02), the Harvard Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics from the US National Institutes of Health Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study program (grant 1 U54 GM088558), and the Area of Excellence Scheme of the Hong Kong University Grants Committee (AoE/M-12/06).

 
ReferencesReferences in Scopus
 
GrantsControl of Pandemic and Inter-pandemic Influenza
 
DC FieldValue
dc.contributor.authorCowling, BJ
 
dc.contributor.authorLau, MSY
 
dc.contributor.authorHo, LM
 
dc.contributor.authorChuang, SK
 
dc.contributor.authorTsang, T
 
dc.contributor.authorLiu, SH
 
dc.contributor.authorLeung, PY
 
dc.contributor.authorLo, SV
 
dc.contributor.authorLau, EHY
 
dc.date.accessioned2010-12-23T08:37:45Z
 
dc.date.available2010-12-23T08:37:45Z
 
dc.date.issued2010
 
dc.description.abstractBackground: Timely estimation of the transmissibility of a novel pandemic influenza virus was a public health priority in 2009. Methods: We extended methods for prospective estimation of the effective reproduction number (R t) over time in an emerging epidemic to allow for reporting delays and repeated importations. We estimated Rt based on case notifications and hospitalizations associated with laboratory-confirmed pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus infections in Hong Kong from June through October 2009. Results: Rt declined from around 1.4-1.5 at the start of the local epidemic to around 1.1-1.2 later in the summer, suggesting changes in transmissibility perhaps related to school vacations or seasonality. Estimates of Rt based on hospitalizations of confirmed H1N1 cases closely matched estimates based on case notifications. Conclusion: Real-time monitoring of the effective reproduction number is feasible and can provide useful information to public health authorities for situational awareness and calibration of mitigation strategies. © 2010 by Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.
 
dc.description.natureLink_to_OA_fulltext
 
dc.identifier.citationEpidemiology, 2010, v. 21 n. 6, p. 842-846 [How to Cite?]
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/EDE.0b013e3181f20977
 
dc.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1097/EDE.0b013e3181f20977
 
dc.identifier.eissn1531-5487
 
dc.identifier.epage846
 
dc.identifier.hkuros183401
 
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000282600600015
Funding AgencyGrant Number
Research Fund for the Control of Infectious Disease, Food and Health Bureau, Government of the Hong Kong SARHK-09-04-02
Harvard Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics from the US National Institutes of Health Models1 U54 GM088558
Hong Kong UniversityAoE/M-12/06
Funding Information:

Supported by the Research Fund for the Control of Infectious Disease, Food and Health Bureau, Government of the Hong Kong SAR (HK-09-04-02), the Harvard Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics from the US National Institutes of Health Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study program (grant 1 U54 GM088558), and the Area of Excellence Scheme of the Hong Kong University Grants Committee (AoE/M-12/06).

 
dc.identifier.issn1044-3983
2013 Impact Factor: 6.178
 
dc.identifier.issue6
 
dc.identifier.pmcidPMC3084966
 
dc.identifier.pmid20805752
 
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-77958514555
 
dc.identifier.spage842
 
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/129471
 
dc.identifier.volume21
 
dc.languageeng
 
dc.publisherLippincott Williams & Wilkins. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.epidem.com
 
dc.publisher.placeUnited States
 
dc.relation.ispartofEpidemiology
 
dc.relation.projectControl of Pandemic and Inter-pandemic Influenza
 
dc.relation.referencesReferences in Scopus
 
dc.subject.meshDisease Outbreaks
 
dc.subject.meshHong Kong - epidemiology
 
dc.subject.meshHospitalization - statistics & numerical data
 
dc.subject.meshHumans
 
dc.subject.meshInfluenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype - isolation & purification
 
dc.subject.meshInfluenza, Human - epidemiology - transmission - virology
 
dc.subject.meshPopulation Surveillance - methods
 
dc.subject.meshProspective Studies
 
dc.titleThe effective reproduction number of pandemic influenza: Prospective estimation
 
dc.typeArticle
 
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Author Affiliations
  1. Hong Kong Hospital Authority
  2. The University of Hong Kong
  3. Centre for Health Protection