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Article: The effective reproduction number of pandemic influenza: Prospective estimation

TitleThe effective reproduction number of pandemic influenza: Prospective estimation
Authors
Issue Date2010
PublisherLippincott Williams & Wilkins. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.epidem.com
Citation
Epidemiology, 2010, v. 21 n. 6, p. 842-846 How to Cite?
AbstractBackground: Timely estimation of the transmissibility of a novel pandemic influenza virus was a public health priority in 2009. Methods: We extended methods for prospective estimation of the effective reproduction number (R t) over time in an emerging epidemic to allow for reporting delays and repeated importations. We estimated Rt based on case notifications and hospitalizations associated with laboratory-confirmed pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus infections in Hong Kong from June through October 2009. Results: Rt declined from around 1.4-1.5 at the start of the local epidemic to around 1.1-1.2 later in the summer, suggesting changes in transmissibility perhaps related to school vacations or seasonality. Estimates of Rt based on hospitalizations of confirmed H1N1 cases closely matched estimates based on case notifications. Conclusion: Real-time monitoring of the effective reproduction number is feasible and can provide useful information to public health authorities for situational awareness and calibration of mitigation strategies. © 2010 by Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/129471
ISSN
2014 Impact Factor: 6.196
PubMed Central ID
ISI Accession Number ID
Funding AgencyGrant Number
Research Fund for the Control of Infectious Disease, Food and Health Bureau, Government of the Hong Kong SARHK-09-04-02
Harvard Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics from the US National Institutes of Health Models1 U54 GM088558
Hong Kong UniversityAoE/M-12/06
Funding Information:

Supported by the Research Fund for the Control of Infectious Disease, Food and Health Bureau, Government of the Hong Kong SAR (HK-09-04-02), the Harvard Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics from the US National Institutes of Health Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study program (grant 1 U54 GM088558), and the Area of Excellence Scheme of the Hong Kong University Grants Committee (AoE/M-12/06).

References
Grants

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorCowling, BJen_HK
dc.contributor.authorLau, MSYen_HK
dc.contributor.authorHo, LMen_HK
dc.contributor.authorChuang, SKen_HK
dc.contributor.authorTsang, Ten_HK
dc.contributor.authorLiu, SHen_HK
dc.contributor.authorLeung, PYen_HK
dc.contributor.authorLo, SVen_HK
dc.contributor.authorLau, EHYen_HK
dc.date.accessioned2010-12-23T08:37:45Z-
dc.date.available2010-12-23T08:37:45Z-
dc.date.issued2010en_HK
dc.identifier.citationEpidemiology, 2010, v. 21 n. 6, p. 842-846en_HK
dc.identifier.issn1044-3983en_HK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/129471-
dc.description.abstractBackground: Timely estimation of the transmissibility of a novel pandemic influenza virus was a public health priority in 2009. Methods: We extended methods for prospective estimation of the effective reproduction number (R t) over time in an emerging epidemic to allow for reporting delays and repeated importations. We estimated Rt based on case notifications and hospitalizations associated with laboratory-confirmed pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus infections in Hong Kong from June through October 2009. Results: Rt declined from around 1.4-1.5 at the start of the local epidemic to around 1.1-1.2 later in the summer, suggesting changes in transmissibility perhaps related to school vacations or seasonality. Estimates of Rt based on hospitalizations of confirmed H1N1 cases closely matched estimates based on case notifications. Conclusion: Real-time monitoring of the effective reproduction number is feasible and can provide useful information to public health authorities for situational awareness and calibration of mitigation strategies. © 2010 by Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.en_HK
dc.languageengen_US
dc.publisherLippincott Williams & Wilkins. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.epidem.comen_HK
dc.relation.ispartofEpidemiologyen_HK
dc.subject.meshDisease Outbreaksen_HK
dc.subject.meshHong Kong - epidemiologyen_HK
dc.subject.meshHospitalization - statistics & numerical dataen_HK
dc.subject.meshHumansen_HK
dc.subject.meshInfluenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype - isolation & purificationen_HK
dc.subject.meshInfluenza, Human - epidemiology - transmission - virologyen_HK
dc.subject.meshPopulation Surveillance - methodsen_HK
dc.subject.meshProspective Studiesen_HK
dc.titleThe effective reproduction number of pandemic influenza: Prospective estimationen_HK
dc.typeArticleen_HK
dc.identifier.emailCowling, BJ:bcowling@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.emailHo, LM:lmho@hkucc.hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.emailLau, EHY:ehylau@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.authorityCowling, BJ=rp01326en_HK
dc.identifier.authorityHo, LM=rp00360en_HK
dc.identifier.authorityLau, EHY=rp01349en_HK
dc.description.naturelink_to_OA_fulltext-
dc.identifier.doi10.1097/EDE.0b013e3181f20977en_HK
dc.identifier.pmid20805752en_HK
dc.identifier.pmcidPMC3084966-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-77958514555en_HK
dc.identifier.hkuros183401en_US
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-77958514555&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_HK
dc.identifier.volume21en_HK
dc.identifier.issue6en_HK
dc.identifier.spage842en_HK
dc.identifier.epage846en_HK
dc.identifier.eissn1531-5487-
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000282600600015-
dc.publisher.placeUnited Statesen_HK
dc.relation.projectControl of Pandemic and Inter-pandemic Influenza-
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridCowling, BJ=8644765500en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridLau, MSY=37034365900en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridHo, LM=7402955625en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridChuang, SK=7202515853en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridTsang, T=7101832378en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridLiu, SH=24171816800en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridLeung, PY=7401749022en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridLo, SV=8426498400en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridLau, EHY=7103086074en_HK

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