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Article: Time-varying covariates and semi-parametric regression in capture-recapture: an adaptive spline approach

TitleTime-varying covariates and semi-parametric regression in capture-recapture: an adaptive spline approach
Authors
KeywordsAdaptive splines
Bayesian inference
Capture–recapture
Free-knot spines
Reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo
Issue Date2009
PublisherSpringer New York LLC. The Journal's web site is located at http://springerlink.metapress.com/openurl.asp?genre=journal&issn=1352-8505
Citation
Environmental and Ecological Statistics, 2009, v. 3, p. 657-675 How to Cite?
AbstractAdvances in capture–recapture methodology have allowed the inclusion of continuous, time-dependent individual-covariates as predictors of survival and capture probabilities. The problem posed by these covariates is that they are only observed for an individual when that individual is captured. One solution is to assume a model of the covariate which defines the distribution of unobserved values, conditional on the observed values, and apply Bayesian methods to compute parameter estimates and to test the covariate’s effect. Previous applications of this approach have modeled the survival probability as a linear function of the covariate on some scale (e.g. identity or logistic). In some applications a linear function may not adequately describe the true relationship. Here we incorporate semi-parametric regression to allow for more flexibility in the relationship between the covariate and the survival probabilities of the Cormack– Jolly–Seber model. A fully Bayesian, adaptive algorithm is used to model the relationship with splines, in which the complexity of the relationship is governed by the number and location of the knots in the spline. A reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is implemented to explore splines with different knot configurations, and model averaging is used to compute the final estimates of the survival probabilities. The method is applied to a simulated data set and to data collected through the Dutch Constant Effort Sites ringing project to study the survival of reed warblers (Acrocephalus scirpaceus) as a function of condition.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/127424
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 0.769
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 0.516

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorBonner, SJen_HK
dc.contributor.authorThomson, DLen_HK
dc.contributor.authorSchwarz, CJen_HK
dc.date.accessioned2010-10-31T13:24:50Z-
dc.date.available2010-10-31T13:24:50Z-
dc.date.issued2009en_HK
dc.identifier.citationEnvironmental and Ecological Statistics, 2009, v. 3, p. 657-675en_HK
dc.identifier.issn1352-8505-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/127424-
dc.description.abstractAdvances in capture–recapture methodology have allowed the inclusion of continuous, time-dependent individual-covariates as predictors of survival and capture probabilities. The problem posed by these covariates is that they are only observed for an individual when that individual is captured. One solution is to assume a model of the covariate which defines the distribution of unobserved values, conditional on the observed values, and apply Bayesian methods to compute parameter estimates and to test the covariate’s effect. Previous applications of this approach have modeled the survival probability as a linear function of the covariate on some scale (e.g. identity or logistic). In some applications a linear function may not adequately describe the true relationship. Here we incorporate semi-parametric regression to allow for more flexibility in the relationship between the covariate and the survival probabilities of the Cormack– Jolly–Seber model. A fully Bayesian, adaptive algorithm is used to model the relationship with splines, in which the complexity of the relationship is governed by the number and location of the knots in the spline. A reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is implemented to explore splines with different knot configurations, and model averaging is used to compute the final estimates of the survival probabilities. The method is applied to a simulated data set and to data collected through the Dutch Constant Effort Sites ringing project to study the survival of reed warblers (Acrocephalus scirpaceus) as a function of condition.-
dc.languageengen_HK
dc.publisherSpringer New York LLC. The Journal's web site is located at http://springerlink.metapress.com/openurl.asp?genre=journal&issn=1352-8505-
dc.relation.ispartofEnvironmental and Ecological Statisticsen_HK
dc.rightsCreative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License-
dc.rightsThe original publication is available at www.springerlink.com-
dc.subjectAdaptive splines-
dc.subjectBayesian inference-
dc.subjectCapture–recapture-
dc.subjectFree-knot spines-
dc.subjectReversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo-
dc.titleTime-varying covariates and semi-parametric regression in capture-recapture: an adaptive spline approachen_HK
dc.typeArticleen_HK
dc.identifier.openurlhttp://library.hku.hk:4550/resserv?sid=HKU:IR&issn=1352-8505&volume=3&spage=657&epage=675&date=2009&atitle=Time-Varying+Covariates+and+Semi-Parametric+Regression+in+Capture-Recapture:+an+Adaptive+Spline+Approach-
dc.identifier.emailBonner, SJ: sbonner@stat.sfu.caen_HK
dc.identifier.emailThomson, DL: dthomson@hku.hk-
dc.identifier.emailSchwarz, CJ: cschwarz@stat.sfu.ca-
dc.identifier.authorityThomson, DL=rp00788en_HK
dc.description.naturepostprint-
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/978-0-387-78151-8_29-
dc.identifier.hkuros174390en_HK
dc.identifier.volume3en_HK
dc.identifier.spage657en_HK
dc.identifier.epage675en_HK

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