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Article: Reliability of the box-jenkins model for forecasting construction demand covering times of economic austerity

TitleReliability of the box-jenkins model for forecasting construction demand covering times of economic austerity
Authors
KeywordsBox-jenkins technique
Construction demand
Economic environment
Forecasting
Issue Date2010
PublisherRoutledge. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.tandf.co.uk/journals/titles/01446193.asp
Citation
Construction Management And Economics, 2010, v. 28 n. 3, p. 241-254 How to Cite?
AbstractAs a driving engine for growth, the construction industry plays an important role in a country's economic development process. Despite that, the industry is vulnerable to cyclical oscillation and at times more fundamental changes in work volume when the regional or global economy is hit by unforeseen events. In order to formulate appropriate policies and directions to help ease the impact of a fluctuating volume of construction work, a model that can reliably predict the work of various construction sectors after any economic turbulence would be extremely useful. In this study, the Box-Jenkins approach is used for model development due to its simplicity and sound theoretical background. The results illustrate that the Box-Jenkins models can reliably predict the medium-term total construction demand and residential demand covering a turbulent period of ups and downs in construction demand. A multiple regression model is also developed to compare against the modelling reliability of the Box-Jenkins model. © 2010 Taylor & Francis.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/123935
ISSN
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 0.967
References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorFan, RYCen_HK
dc.contributor.authorNg, STen_HK
dc.contributor.authorWong, JMWen_HK
dc.date.accessioned2010-10-11T03:55:18Z-
dc.date.available2010-10-11T03:55:18Z-
dc.date.issued2010en_HK
dc.identifier.citationConstruction Management And Economics, 2010, v. 28 n. 3, p. 241-254en_HK
dc.identifier.issn0144-6193en_HK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/123935-
dc.description.abstractAs a driving engine for growth, the construction industry plays an important role in a country's economic development process. Despite that, the industry is vulnerable to cyclical oscillation and at times more fundamental changes in work volume when the regional or global economy is hit by unforeseen events. In order to formulate appropriate policies and directions to help ease the impact of a fluctuating volume of construction work, a model that can reliably predict the work of various construction sectors after any economic turbulence would be extremely useful. In this study, the Box-Jenkins approach is used for model development due to its simplicity and sound theoretical background. The results illustrate that the Box-Jenkins models can reliably predict the medium-term total construction demand and residential demand covering a turbulent period of ups and downs in construction demand. A multiple regression model is also developed to compare against the modelling reliability of the Box-Jenkins model. © 2010 Taylor & Francis.en_HK
dc.languageeng-
dc.publisherRoutledge. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.tandf.co.uk/journals/titles/01446193.aspen_HK
dc.relation.ispartofConstruction Management and Economicsen_HK
dc.subjectBox-jenkins techniqueen_HK
dc.subjectConstruction demanden_HK
dc.subjectEconomic environmenten_HK
dc.subjectForecastingen_HK
dc.titleReliability of the box-jenkins model for forecasting construction demand covering times of economic austerityen_HK
dc.typeArticleen_HK
dc.identifier.openurlhttp://library.hku.hk:4550/resserv?sid=HKU:IR&issn=0144-6193&volume=28&issue=3&spage=241&epage=254&date=2010&atitle=Reliability+of+the+Box-Jenkins+model+for+forecasting+construction+demand+covering+times+of+economic+austerity-
dc.identifier.emailNg, ST:tstng@hkucc.hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.authorityNg, ST=rp00158en_HK
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltext-
dc.identifier.doi10.1080/01446190903369899en_HK
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-77950920613en_HK
dc.identifier.hkuros173577-
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-77950920613&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_HK
dc.identifier.volume28en_HK
dc.identifier.issue3en_HK
dc.identifier.spage241en_HK
dc.identifier.epage254en_HK
dc.publisher.placeUnited Kingdomen_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridFan, RYC=27267665500en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridNg, ST=7403358853en_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridWong, JMW=30067976000en_HK

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