Self-predictions Overweight Strength Of Current Intentions

Abstract

We show that people's predictions of their future behavior overweight the strength of their current intentions, and underweight situational or contextual factors that influence the ease with which intentions are translated into action. Consistent with this account, manipulations that strengthen intentions to carry out a behavior have a larger impact on self-predictions than on the behavior being predicted, whereas manipulations that influence the ease with which intentions are translated into behavior have a larger impact on actual behavior than on self-predictions. Drawing attention to possible obstacles to carrying out the target behavior has surprisingly little impact on selfpredictions.