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- Publisher Website: 10.1257/mic.20140147
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Article: Falling Dominoes: A Theory of Rare Events and Crisis Contagion
Title | Falling Dominoes: A Theory of Rare Events and Crisis Contagion |
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Authors | |
Issue Date | 2016 |
Publisher | American Economic Association. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.aeaweb.org/aej-macro/index.php |
Citation | American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2016, v. 8 n. 1, p. 228-255 How to Cite? |
Abstract | Crises, such as revolutions and currency attacks, rarely occur; but when they do they typically arrive in waves. The rarity of crises itself is an important contagion mechanism in a multiple-country dynamic global game model. When players are uncertain about the true model of the world, observing a rare success elsewhere can substantially change their expectations concerning the payoffs from attacking or defending the regime. Such dramatic revisions in beliefs, amplified by strategic complementarity in actions, may lead to a series of attacks in other countries. The crisis period can be long-lasting, but will eventually come to an end. |
Persistent Identifier | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/212045 |
ISSN | 2023 Impact Factor: 6.3 2023 SCImago Journal Rankings: 12.324 |
ISI Accession Number ID |
DC Field | Value | Language |
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dc.contributor.author | Chen, H | - |
dc.contributor.author | Suen, WC | - |
dc.date.accessioned | 2015-07-21T02:20:50Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2015-07-21T02:20:50Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2016 | - |
dc.identifier.citation | American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2016, v. 8 n. 1, p. 228-255 | - |
dc.identifier.issn | 1945-7707 | - |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/212045 | - |
dc.description.abstract | Crises, such as revolutions and currency attacks, rarely occur; but when they do they typically arrive in waves. The rarity of crises itself is an important contagion mechanism in a multiple-country dynamic global game model. When players are uncertain about the true model of the world, observing a rare success elsewhere can substantially change their expectations concerning the payoffs from attacking or defending the regime. Such dramatic revisions in beliefs, amplified by strategic complementarity in actions, may lead to a series of attacks in other countries. The crisis period can be long-lasting, but will eventually come to an end. | - |
dc.language | eng | - |
dc.publisher | American Economic Association. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.aeaweb.org/aej-macro/index.php | - |
dc.relation.ispartof | American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics | - |
dc.rights | American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics. Copyright © American Economic Association. | - |
dc.title | Falling Dominoes: A Theory of Rare Events and Crisis Contagion | - |
dc.type | Article | - |
dc.identifier.email | Chen, H: hengchen@hku.hk | - |
dc.identifier.email | Suen, WC: hrneswc@hkucc.hku.hk | - |
dc.identifier.authority | Chen, H=rp01315 | - |
dc.identifier.authority | Suen, WC=rp00066 | - |
dc.description.nature | postprint | - |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1257/mic.20140147 | - |
dc.identifier.scopus | eid_2-s2.0-84958159273 | - |
dc.identifier.hkuros | 245337 | - |
dc.identifier.volume | 8 | - |
dc.identifier.issue | 1 | - |
dc.identifier.spage | 228 | - |
dc.identifier.epage | 255 | - |
dc.identifier.isi | WOS:000369033600009 | - |
dc.publisher.place | United States | - |
dc.identifier.issnl | 1945-7715 | - |