Seasonality of tuberculosis in intermediate endemicity setting dominated by reactivation diseases in Hong Kong

Abstract

Summer-spring predominance of tuberculosis (TB) has been widely reported. The relative contributions of exogenous recent infection versus endogenous reactivation to such seasonality remains poorly understood. Monthly TB notifications data between 2005 and 2017 in Hong Kong involving 64,386 cases (41% aged ≥ 65; male-to-female ratio 1.74:1) were examined for the timing, amplitude, and predictability of variation of seasonality. The observed seasonal variabilities were correlated with demographics and clinical presentations, using wavelet analysis coupled with dynamic generalised linear regression models. Overall, TB notifications peaked annually in June and July. No significant annual seasonality was demonstrated for children aged ≤ 14 irrespective of gender. The strongest seasonality was detected in the elderly (≥ 65) among males, while seasonal pattern was more prominent in the middle-aged (45–64) and adults (30–44) among females. The stronger TB seasonality among older adults in Hong Kong suggested that the pattern has been contributed largely by reactivation diseases precipitated by defective immunity whereas seasonal variation of recent infection was uncommon.