Driving with the Rearview Mirror? Historical analogies as templates for managing crises and transitions in the international order

Abstract

This paper argues that for all the changes occurring in the international order, history casts a long shadow over policy-makers’ interpretations of these alterations. The power of historical analogies lies not, as is often assumed, in their accuracy but rather in their effectiveness to illustrate how previous generations of decision-makers handled (or mishandled) political developments and crises affecting the international order. The actors and historical contexts change but the dilemmas remain remarkably similar: how can the international order accommodate power transitions? How can and should global rules and norms be implemented? How should major security risks be managed? The paper problematises the concept of historical analogies and suggests that historical patterns create ideational path-dependencies that influence how policy-makers evaluate and perceive their options and choices. The paper analyses a number of historical analogies that have recently attracted attention and contributes to the growing interest in the social constructivist literature in the generative role of historical legacies in foreign policy.