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Article: Comparison of three updating models for real time forecasting: a case study of flood forecasting at the middle reaches of the Huai River in East China

TitleComparison of three updating models for real time forecasting: a case study of flood forecasting at the middle reaches of the Huai River in East China
Authors
KeywordsHydraulic routing model
Real-time updating model
K-nearest neighbor
Parameter calibration
Kalman filter
The combined model
Flood forecasting
Issue Date2016
PublisherSpringer Verlag. The Journal's web site is located at http://link.springer.de/link/service/journals/00477/index.htm
Citation
Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 2016, p. 1-14 How to Cite?
AbstractThis study explores the performances of three real-time updating models in improving flood forecasting accuracy. The first model is the K-nearest neighbor (KNN) algorithm. The KNN algorithm estimates forecast errors based upon the most similar samples of errors rather than on the most recent ones. The two other updating models are the Kalman filter (KF) and a combined model incorporating both the KF and KNN procedures. To compare the performances of these three models, this study uses the middle reaches of the Huai River in East China for a case study. Using 13 flood events occurring from 2003 to 2010 as examples, one hydraulic routing model is applied for flood simulation. Subsequently, the three updating models are utilized with lead times of 1- to 8-h for updating the outputs of the hydraulic model. Comparison of the updated results from the three updating models reveals that all three updating models improve the performance of the hydraulic model for flood forecasting. Among them, the KNN model performs more robustly for forecasts with a longer lead time than the other two updating models. Statistical results show that the KNN model is capable of providing excellent forecasts with an 8-h lead time in both the calibration and validation periods.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/233902
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 2.237
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 1.065

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorLiu, K-
dc.contributor.authorYao, C-
dc.contributor.authorChen, J-
dc.contributor.authorLI, Z-
dc.contributor.authorLi, Q-
dc.contributor.authorSun, L-
dc.date.accessioned2016-09-30T07:10:06Z-
dc.date.available2016-09-30T07:10:06Z-
dc.date.issued2016-
dc.identifier.citationStochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 2016, p. 1-14-
dc.identifier.issn1436-3240-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/233902-
dc.description.abstractThis study explores the performances of three real-time updating models in improving flood forecasting accuracy. The first model is the K-nearest neighbor (KNN) algorithm. The KNN algorithm estimates forecast errors based upon the most similar samples of errors rather than on the most recent ones. The two other updating models are the Kalman filter (KF) and a combined model incorporating both the KF and KNN procedures. To compare the performances of these three models, this study uses the middle reaches of the Huai River in East China for a case study. Using 13 flood events occurring from 2003 to 2010 as examples, one hydraulic routing model is applied for flood simulation. Subsequently, the three updating models are utilized with lead times of 1- to 8-h for updating the outputs of the hydraulic model. Comparison of the updated results from the three updating models reveals that all three updating models improve the performance of the hydraulic model for flood forecasting. Among them, the KNN model performs more robustly for forecasts with a longer lead time than the other two updating models. Statistical results show that the KNN model is capable of providing excellent forecasts with an 8-h lead time in both the calibration and validation periods.-
dc.languageeng-
dc.publisherSpringer Verlag. The Journal's web site is located at http://link.springer.de/link/service/journals/00477/index.htm-
dc.relation.ispartofStochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment-
dc.rightsThe final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/[insert DOI]-
dc.subjectHydraulic routing model-
dc.subjectReal-time updating model-
dc.subjectK-nearest neighbor-
dc.subjectParameter calibration-
dc.subjectKalman filter-
dc.subjectThe combined model-
dc.subjectFlood forecasting-
dc.titleComparison of three updating models for real time forecasting: a case study of flood forecasting at the middle reaches of the Huai River in East China-
dc.typeArticle-
dc.identifier.emailChen, J: jichen@hku.hk-
dc.identifier.authorityChen, J=rp00098-
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltext-
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s00477-016-1267-x-
dc.identifier.hkuros268431-
dc.identifier.spage1-
dc.identifier.epage14-
dc.publisher.placeGermany-

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