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Article: Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science

TitleEstimating the reproducibility of psychological science
Authors
Aarts, AAAnderson, JEAnderson, CJAttridge, PRAttwood, AAxt, JBabel, MBahník, ŠBaranski, EBarnett-Cowan, MBartmess, EBeer, JBell, RBentley, HBeyan, LBinion, GBorsboom, DBosch, ABosco, FABowman, SDBrandt, MJBraswell, EBrohmer, HBrown, BTBrown, KBrüning, JCalhoun-Sauls, ACallahan, SPChagnon, EChandler, JChartier, CRCheung, FChristopherson, CDCillessen, LClay, RCleary, HCloud, MDConn, MCohoon, JColumbus, SCordes, ACostantini, GAlvarez, LDCCremata, ECrusius, JDeCoster, JDeGaetano, MAPenna, NDDen Bezemer, BDeserno, MKDevitt, ODewitte, LDobolyi, DGDodson, GTDonnellan, MBDonohue, RDore, RADorrough, ADreber, ADugas, MDunn, EWEasey, KEboigbe, SEggleston, CEmbley, JEpskamp, SErrington, TMEstel, VFarach, FJFeather, JFedor, AFernández-Castilla, BFiedler, SField, JGFitneva, SAFlagan, TForest, ALForsell, EFoster, JDFrank, MCFrazier, RSFuchs, HGable, PGalak, JGalliani, EMGampa, AGarcia, SGazarian, DGilbert, EGiner-Sorolla, RGlöckner, AGoellner, LGoh, JXGoldberg, RGoodbourn, PTGordon-McKeon, SGorges, BGorges, JGoss, JGraham, JGrange, JAGray, JHartgerink, CHartshorne, JHasselman, FHayes, THeikensten, EHenninger, FHodsoll, JHolubar, THoogendoorn, GHumphries, DJHung, COYImmelman, NIrsik, VCJahn, GJäkel, FJekel, MJohannesson, MJohnson, LGJohnson, DJJohnson, KMJohnston, WJJonas, KJoy-Gaba, JAKappes, HBKelso, KKidwell, MCKim, SKKirkhart, MKleinberg, BKnežević, GKolorz, FMKossakowski, JJKrause, RWKrijnen, JKuhlmann, TKunkels, YKKyc, MMLai, CKLaique, ALakens, DLane, KALassetter, BLazarević, LBLe Bel, EPLee, KJLee, MLemm, KLevitan, CALewis, MLin, LLin, SLippold, MLoureiro, DLuteijn, IMacKinnon, SMainard, HNMarigold, DCMartin, DPMartinez, TMasicampo, EJMatacotta, JMathur, MMay, MMechin, NMehta, PMeixner, JMelinger, AMiller, JKMiller, MMoore, KMöschl, MMotyl, MMüller, SMMunafo, MNeijenhuijs, KINervi, TNicolas, GNilsonne, GNosek, BANuijten, MBOlsson, COsborne, COstkamp, LPavel, MPenton-Voak, ISPerna, OPernet, CPerugini, MPipitone, RNPitts, MPlessow, FPrenoveau, JMRahal, RMRatliff, KAReinhard, DRenkewitz, FRicker, AARigney, ARivers, AMRoebke, MRutchick, AMRyan, RSSahin, OSaide, ASandstrom, GMSantos, DSaxe, RSchlegelmilch, RSchmidt, KScholz, SSeibel, LSelterman, DFShaki, SSimpson, WBSinclair, HCSkorinko, JLMSlowik, ASnyder, JSSoderberg, CSonnleitner, CSpencer, NSpies, JRSteegen, SStieger, SStrohminger, NSullivan, GBTalhelm, TTapia, MTe Dorsthorst, AThomae, MThomas, SLTio, PTraets, FTsang, STuerlinckx, FTurchan, PValášek, MVan't Veer, AEVan Aert, RVan Assen, MVan Bork, RVan De Ven, MVan Den Bergh, DVan Der Hulst, MVan Dooren, RVan Doorn, JVan Renswoude, DRVan Rijn, HVanpaemel, WEcheverría, AVVazquez, MVelez, NVermue, MVerschoor, MVianello, MVoracek, MVuu, GWagenmakers, EJWeerdmeester, JWelsh, AWestgate, ECWissink, JWood, MWoods, AWright, EWu, SZeelenberg, MZuni, K
Issue Date2015
PublisherAmerican Association for the Advancement of Science. The Journal's web site is located at http://sciencemag.org
Citation
Science, 2015, v. 349 n. 6251, p. aac4716 How to Cite?
AbstractReproducibility is a defining feature of science, but the extent to which it characterizes current research is unknown. We conducted replications of 100 experimental and correlational studies published in three psychology journals using high-powered designs and original materials when available. Replication effects were half the magnitude of original effects, representing a substantial decline. Ninety-seven percent of original studies had statistically significant results. Thirty-six percent of replications had statistically significant results; 47% of original effect sizes were in the 95% confidence interval of the replication effect size; 39% of effects were subjectively rated to have replicated the original result; and if no bias in original results is assumed, combining original and replication results left 68% with statistically significant effects. Correlational tests suggest that replication success was better predicted by the strength of original evidence than by characteristics of the original and replication teams.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/230596
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 34.661
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 13.217

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorAarts, AA-
dc.contributor.authorAnderson, JE-
dc.contributor.authorAnderson, CJ-
dc.contributor.authorAttridge, PR-
dc.contributor.authorAttwood, A-
dc.contributor.authorAxt, J-
dc.contributor.authorBabel, M-
dc.contributor.authorBahník, Š-
dc.contributor.authorBaranski, E-
dc.contributor.authorBarnett-Cowan, M-
dc.contributor.authorBartmess, E-
dc.contributor.authorBeer, J-
dc.contributor.authorBell, R-
dc.contributor.authorBentley, H-
dc.contributor.authorBeyan, L-
dc.contributor.authorBinion, G-
dc.contributor.authorBorsboom, D-
dc.contributor.authorBosch, A-
dc.contributor.authorBosco, FA-
dc.contributor.authorBowman, SD-
dc.contributor.authorBrandt, MJ-
dc.contributor.authorBraswell, E-
dc.contributor.authorBrohmer, H-
dc.contributor.authorBrown, BT-
dc.contributor.authorBrown, K-
dc.contributor.authorBrüning, J-
dc.contributor.authorCalhoun-Sauls, A-
dc.contributor.authorCallahan, SP-
dc.contributor.authorChagnon, E-
dc.contributor.authorChandler, J-
dc.contributor.authorChartier, CR-
dc.contributor.authorCheung, F-
dc.contributor.authorChristopherson, CD-
dc.contributor.authorCillessen, L-
dc.contributor.authorClay, R-
dc.contributor.authorCleary, H-
dc.contributor.authorCloud, MD-
dc.contributor.authorConn, M-
dc.contributor.authorCohoon, J-
dc.contributor.authorColumbus, S-
dc.contributor.authorCordes, A-
dc.contributor.authorCostantini, G-
dc.contributor.authorAlvarez, LDC-
dc.contributor.authorCremata, E-
dc.contributor.authorCrusius, J-
dc.contributor.authorDeCoster, J-
dc.contributor.authorDeGaetano, MA-
dc.contributor.authorPenna, ND-
dc.contributor.authorDen Bezemer, B-
dc.contributor.authorDeserno, MK-
dc.contributor.authorDevitt, O-
dc.contributor.authorDewitte, L-
dc.contributor.authorDobolyi, DG-
dc.contributor.authorDodson, GT-
dc.contributor.authorDonnellan, MB-
dc.contributor.authorDonohue, R-
dc.contributor.authorDore, RA-
dc.contributor.authorDorrough, A-
dc.contributor.authorDreber, A-
dc.contributor.authorDugas, M-
dc.contributor.authorDunn, EW-
dc.contributor.authorEasey, K-
dc.contributor.authorEboigbe, S-
dc.contributor.authorEggleston, C-
dc.contributor.authorEmbley, J-
dc.contributor.authorEpskamp, S-
dc.contributor.authorErrington, TM-
dc.contributor.authorEstel, V-
dc.contributor.authorFarach, FJ-
dc.contributor.authorFeather, J-
dc.contributor.authorFedor, A-
dc.contributor.authorFernández-Castilla, B-
dc.contributor.authorFiedler, S-
dc.contributor.authorField, JG-
dc.contributor.authorFitneva, SA-
dc.contributor.authorFlagan, T-
dc.contributor.authorForest, AL-
dc.contributor.authorForsell, E-
dc.contributor.authorFoster, JD-
dc.contributor.authorFrank, MC-
dc.contributor.authorFrazier, RS-
dc.contributor.authorFuchs, H-
dc.contributor.authorGable, P-
dc.contributor.authorGalak, J-
dc.contributor.authorGalliani, EM-
dc.contributor.authorGampa, A-
dc.contributor.authorGarcia, S-
dc.contributor.authorGazarian, D-
dc.contributor.authorGilbert, E-
dc.contributor.authorGiner-Sorolla, R-
dc.contributor.authorGlöckner, A-
dc.contributor.authorGoellner, L-
dc.contributor.authorGoh, JX-
dc.contributor.authorGoldberg, R-
dc.contributor.authorGoodbourn, PT-
dc.contributor.authorGordon-McKeon, S-
dc.contributor.authorGorges, B-
dc.contributor.authorGorges, J-
dc.contributor.authorGoss, J-
dc.contributor.authorGraham, J-
dc.contributor.authorGrange, JA-
dc.contributor.authorGray, J-
dc.contributor.authorHartgerink, C-
dc.contributor.authorHartshorne, J-
dc.contributor.authorHasselman, F-
dc.contributor.authorHayes, T-
dc.contributor.authorHeikensten, E-
dc.contributor.authorHenninger, F-
dc.contributor.authorHodsoll, J-
dc.contributor.authorHolubar, T-
dc.contributor.authorHoogendoorn, G-
dc.contributor.authorHumphries, DJ-
dc.contributor.authorHung, COY-
dc.contributor.authorImmelman, N-
dc.contributor.authorIrsik, VC-
dc.contributor.authorJahn, G-
dc.contributor.authorJäkel, F-
dc.contributor.authorJekel, M-
dc.contributor.authorJohannesson, M-
dc.contributor.authorJohnson, LG-
dc.contributor.authorJohnson, DJ-
dc.contributor.authorJohnson, KM-
dc.contributor.authorJohnston, WJ-
dc.contributor.authorJonas, K-
dc.contributor.authorJoy-Gaba, JA-
dc.contributor.authorKappes, HB-
dc.contributor.authorKelso, K-
dc.contributor.authorKidwell, MC-
dc.contributor.authorKim, SK-
dc.contributor.authorKirkhart, M-
dc.contributor.authorKleinberg, B-
dc.contributor.authorKnežević, G-
dc.contributor.authorKolorz, FM-
dc.contributor.authorKossakowski, JJ-
dc.contributor.authorKrause, RW-
dc.contributor.authorKrijnen, J-
dc.contributor.authorKuhlmann, T-
dc.contributor.authorKunkels, YK-
dc.contributor.authorKyc, MM-
dc.contributor.authorLai, CK-
dc.contributor.authorLaique, A-
dc.contributor.authorLakens, D-
dc.contributor.authorLane, KA-
dc.contributor.authorLassetter, B-
dc.contributor.authorLazarević, LB-
dc.contributor.authorLe Bel, EP-
dc.contributor.authorLee, KJ-
dc.contributor.authorLee, M-
dc.contributor.authorLemm, K-
dc.contributor.authorLevitan, CA-
dc.contributor.authorLewis, M-
dc.contributor.authorLin, L-
dc.contributor.authorLin, S-
dc.contributor.authorLippold, M-
dc.contributor.authorLoureiro, D-
dc.contributor.authorLuteijn, I-
dc.contributor.authorMacKinnon, S-
dc.contributor.authorMainard, HN-
dc.contributor.authorMarigold, DC-
dc.contributor.authorMartin, DP-
dc.contributor.authorMartinez, T-
dc.contributor.authorMasicampo, EJ-
dc.contributor.authorMatacotta, J-
dc.contributor.authorMathur, M-
dc.contributor.authorMay, M-
dc.contributor.authorMechin, N-
dc.contributor.authorMehta, P-
dc.contributor.authorMeixner, J-
dc.contributor.authorMelinger, A-
dc.contributor.authorMiller, JK-
dc.contributor.authorMiller, M-
dc.contributor.authorMoore, K-
dc.contributor.authorMöschl, M-
dc.contributor.authorMotyl, M-
dc.contributor.authorMüller, SM-
dc.contributor.authorMunafo, M-
dc.contributor.authorNeijenhuijs, KI-
dc.contributor.authorNervi, T-
dc.contributor.authorNicolas, G-
dc.contributor.authorNilsonne, G-
dc.contributor.authorNosek, BA-
dc.contributor.authorNuijten, MB-
dc.contributor.authorOlsson, C-
dc.contributor.authorOsborne, C-
dc.contributor.authorOstkamp, L-
dc.contributor.authorPavel, M-
dc.contributor.authorPenton-Voak, IS-
dc.contributor.authorPerna, O-
dc.contributor.authorPernet, C-
dc.contributor.authorPerugini, M-
dc.contributor.authorPipitone, RN-
dc.contributor.authorPitts, M-
dc.contributor.authorPlessow, F-
dc.contributor.authorPrenoveau, JM-
dc.contributor.authorRahal, RM-
dc.contributor.authorRatliff, KA-
dc.contributor.authorReinhard, D-
dc.contributor.authorRenkewitz, F-
dc.contributor.authorRicker, AA-
dc.contributor.authorRigney, A-
dc.contributor.authorRivers, AM-
dc.contributor.authorRoebke, M-
dc.contributor.authorRutchick, AM-
dc.contributor.authorRyan, RS-
dc.contributor.authorSahin, O-
dc.contributor.authorSaide, A-
dc.contributor.authorSandstrom, GM-
dc.contributor.authorSantos, D-
dc.contributor.authorSaxe, R-
dc.contributor.authorSchlegelmilch, R-
dc.contributor.authorSchmidt, K-
dc.contributor.authorScholz, S-
dc.contributor.authorSeibel, L-
dc.contributor.authorSelterman, DF-
dc.contributor.authorShaki, S-
dc.contributor.authorSimpson, WB-
dc.contributor.authorSinclair, HC-
dc.contributor.authorSkorinko, JLM-
dc.contributor.authorSlowik, A-
dc.contributor.authorSnyder, JS-
dc.contributor.authorSoderberg, C-
dc.contributor.authorSonnleitner, C-
dc.contributor.authorSpencer, N-
dc.contributor.authorSpies, JR-
dc.contributor.authorSteegen, S-
dc.contributor.authorStieger, S-
dc.contributor.authorStrohminger, N-
dc.contributor.authorSullivan, GB-
dc.contributor.authorTalhelm, T-
dc.contributor.authorTapia, M-
dc.contributor.authorTe Dorsthorst, A-
dc.contributor.authorThomae, M-
dc.contributor.authorThomas, SL-
dc.contributor.authorTio, P-
dc.contributor.authorTraets, F-
dc.contributor.authorTsang, S-
dc.contributor.authorTuerlinckx, F-
dc.contributor.authorTurchan, P-
dc.contributor.authorValášek, M-
dc.contributor.authorVan't Veer, AE-
dc.contributor.authorVan Aert, R-
dc.contributor.authorVan Assen, M-
dc.contributor.authorVan Bork, R-
dc.contributor.authorVan De Ven, M-
dc.contributor.authorVan Den Bergh, D-
dc.contributor.authorVan Der Hulst, M-
dc.contributor.authorVan Dooren, R-
dc.contributor.authorVan Doorn, J-
dc.contributor.authorVan Renswoude, DR-
dc.contributor.authorVan Rijn, H-
dc.contributor.authorVanpaemel, W-
dc.contributor.authorEcheverría, AV-
dc.contributor.authorVazquez, M-
dc.contributor.authorVelez, N-
dc.contributor.authorVermue, M-
dc.contributor.authorVerschoor, M-
dc.contributor.authorVianello, M-
dc.contributor.authorVoracek, M-
dc.contributor.authorVuu, G-
dc.contributor.authorWagenmakers, EJ-
dc.contributor.authorWeerdmeester, J-
dc.contributor.authorWelsh, A-
dc.contributor.authorWestgate, EC-
dc.contributor.authorWissink, J-
dc.contributor.authorWood, M-
dc.contributor.authorWoods, A-
dc.contributor.authorWright, E-
dc.contributor.authorWu, S-
dc.contributor.authorZeelenberg, M-
dc.contributor.authorZuni, K-
dc.date.accessioned2016-08-24T01:40:56Z-
dc.date.available2016-08-24T01:40:56Z-
dc.date.issued2015-
dc.identifier.citationScience, 2015, v. 349 n. 6251, p. aac4716-
dc.identifier.issn0036-8075-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/230596-
dc.description.abstractReproducibility is a defining feature of science, but the extent to which it characterizes current research is unknown. We conducted replications of 100 experimental and correlational studies published in three psychology journals using high-powered designs and original materials when available. Replication effects were half the magnitude of original effects, representing a substantial decline. Ninety-seven percent of original studies had statistically significant results. Thirty-six percent of replications had statistically significant results; 47% of original effect sizes were in the 95% confidence interval of the replication effect size; 39% of effects were subjectively rated to have replicated the original result; and if no bias in original results is assumed, combining original and replication results left 68% with statistically significant effects. Correlational tests suggest that replication success was better predicted by the strength of original evidence than by characteristics of the original and replication teams.-
dc.languageeng-
dc.publisherAmerican Association for the Advancement of Science. The Journal's web site is located at http://sciencemag.org-
dc.relation.ispartofScience-
dc.rightsScience. Copyright © American Association for the Advancement of Science.-
dc.rightsThis is the author’s version of the work. It is posted here by permission of the AAAS for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in [Science Journal Title] on [Volume number and date], DOI: [insert DOI number].-
dc.titleEstimating the reproducibility of psychological science-
dc.typeArticle-
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltext-
dc.identifier.doi10.1126/science.aac4716-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-84940513037-
dc.identifier.hkuros261059-
dc.identifier.volume349-
dc.identifier.issue6251-
dc.identifier.spageaac4716-
dc.identifier.epageaac4716-
dc.publisher.placeUnited States-
dc.identifier.f1000725745455-

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