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Article: A note on the estimation of the initial number of susceptible individuals in the general epidemic model

TitleA note on the estimation of the initial number of susceptible individuals in the general epidemic model
Authors
KeywordsEpidemic
Population size estimation
Susceptibles
Issue Date2004
PublisherElsevier BV. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.elsevier.com/locate/stapro
Citation
Statistics & Probability Letters, 2004, v. 67, p. 321-330 How to Cite?
AbstractTraditional inference for epidemic models depends on knowledge of the initial number of susceptible individuals. However, this may be difficult to obtain in practice. In this short note we show that it is possible to use data from a major epidemic to estimate the number of individuals initially susceptible to a disease and an approximate asymptotic variance is derived. The results are confirmed in simulations of major epidemics. An application to a data set on smallpox is given. © 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/221535
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 0.506
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 0.720
ISI Accession Number ID
References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorHuggins, RM-
dc.contributor.authorYip, PSF-
dc.contributor.authorLau, EHY-
dc.date.accessioned2015-11-30T01:46:28Z-
dc.date.available2015-11-30T01:46:28Z-
dc.date.issued2004-
dc.identifier.citationStatistics & Probability Letters, 2004, v. 67, p. 321-330-
dc.identifier.issn0167-7152-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/221535-
dc.description.abstractTraditional inference for epidemic models depends on knowledge of the initial number of susceptible individuals. However, this may be difficult to obtain in practice. In this short note we show that it is possible to use data from a major epidemic to estimate the number of individuals initially susceptible to a disease and an approximate asymptotic variance is derived. The results are confirmed in simulations of major epidemics. An application to a data set on smallpox is given. © 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.-
dc.languageeng-
dc.publisherElsevier BV. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.elsevier.com/locate/stapro-
dc.relation.ispartofStatistics & Probability Letters-
dc.rights© <year>. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/-
dc.subjectEpidemic-
dc.subjectPopulation size estimation-
dc.subjectSusceptibles-
dc.titleA note on the estimation of the initial number of susceptible individuals in the general epidemic model-
dc.typeArticle-
dc.identifier.emailYip, PSF: sfpyip@hku.hk-
dc.identifier.authorityYip, PSF=rp00596-
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.spl.2002.02.001-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-1842711685-
dc.identifier.hkuros91702-
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-1842711685&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpage-
dc.identifier.volume67-
dc.identifier.spage321-
dc.identifier.epage330-
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000221191500006-
dc.publisher.placeNetherlands-
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridHuggins, RM=7102879186-
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridYip, PSF=7102503720-
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridLau, EHY=7103086074-

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