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Article: Validation and comparison of nomograms in predicting disease-specific survival for papillary thyroid carcinoma

TitleValidation and comparison of nomograms in predicting disease-specific survival for papillary thyroid carcinoma
Authors
Issue Date2015
PublisherSpringer New York LLC. The Journal's web site is located at http://link.springer.de/link/service/journals/00268/
Citation
World Journal of Surgery, 2015, v. 39 n. 8, p. 1951-1958 How to Cite?
AbstractBACKGROUND: Nomogram could estimate individualized prognosis in papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). We aimed to create and validate a new nomogram and compare it with other published nomograms using a large patient cohort. METHODS: Eight-hundred and forty-nine PTC patients with ≥7 years follow-up were randomly assigned to the development (n = 425) and validation (n = 424) groups. The former was used for developing a nomogram for disease-specific survival (DSS), while the latter was for validating the nomogram by discrimination [or area under curve (AUC)]. AUC of the newly developed nomogram was compared to other published nomograms. RESULTS: The 5- and 10-year risk of dying from PTC were 1.4 and 3.3 %, respectively, while dying from non-PTC-related causes were 2.3 and 5.1 %, respectively. The new nomogram was developed from age, tumor size, multifocality, nodal status and distant metastases. The discrimination was excellent (AUC (95 % CI) for 5- and 10-year DSS were 0.896 (0.683-0.971) and 0.919 (0.871-0.967), respectively). Its predictability was similar to other published nomograms (p > 0.05). Based on the new nomogram, a total score of <28 meant 99.72 % chance of surviving from PTC at 10 years while a score of ≥28 meant 9.09 % chance of dying from PTC at 10 years. CONCLUSIONS: Using variables from the current tumor node metastasis (TNM) staging system, a new nomogram was developed. It exhibited excellent discriminatory ability and accuracy in predicting 10-year DSS relative to other published nomograms. However, given the excellent prognosis of PTC, the new nomogram was better at ruling out than predicting PTC-related death. Further validation by an external cohort is required.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/209312
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 2.523
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 1.375

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorLang, HHB-
dc.contributor.authorWong, CKH-
dc.date.accessioned2015-04-17T05:06:07Z-
dc.date.available2015-04-17T05:06:07Z-
dc.date.issued2015-
dc.identifier.citationWorld Journal of Surgery, 2015, v. 39 n. 8, p. 1951-1958-
dc.identifier.issn0364-2313-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/209312-
dc.description.abstractBACKGROUND: Nomogram could estimate individualized prognosis in papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). We aimed to create and validate a new nomogram and compare it with other published nomograms using a large patient cohort. METHODS: Eight-hundred and forty-nine PTC patients with ≥7 years follow-up were randomly assigned to the development (n = 425) and validation (n = 424) groups. The former was used for developing a nomogram for disease-specific survival (DSS), while the latter was for validating the nomogram by discrimination [or area under curve (AUC)]. AUC of the newly developed nomogram was compared to other published nomograms. RESULTS: The 5- and 10-year risk of dying from PTC were 1.4 and 3.3 %, respectively, while dying from non-PTC-related causes were 2.3 and 5.1 %, respectively. The new nomogram was developed from age, tumor size, multifocality, nodal status and distant metastases. The discrimination was excellent (AUC (95 % CI) for 5- and 10-year DSS were 0.896 (0.683-0.971) and 0.919 (0.871-0.967), respectively). Its predictability was similar to other published nomograms (p > 0.05). Based on the new nomogram, a total score of <28 meant 99.72 % chance of surviving from PTC at 10 years while a score of ≥28 meant 9.09 % chance of dying from PTC at 10 years. CONCLUSIONS: Using variables from the current tumor node metastasis (TNM) staging system, a new nomogram was developed. It exhibited excellent discriminatory ability and accuracy in predicting 10-year DSS relative to other published nomograms. However, given the excellent prognosis of PTC, the new nomogram was better at ruling out than predicting PTC-related death. Further validation by an external cohort is required.-
dc.languageeng-
dc.publisherSpringer New York LLC. The Journal's web site is located at http://link.springer.de/link/service/journals/00268/-
dc.relation.ispartofWorld Journal of Surgery-
dc.rightsThe final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00268-015-3044-2-
dc.rightsCreative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License-
dc.titleValidation and comparison of nomograms in predicting disease-specific survival for papillary thyroid carcinoma-
dc.typeArticle-
dc.identifier.emailLang, HHB: blang@hkucc.hku.hk-
dc.identifier.emailWong, CKH: carlosho@hku.hk-
dc.identifier.authorityLang, HHB=rp01828-
dc.identifier.authorityWong, CKH=rp01931-
dc.description.naturepostprint-
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s00268-015-3044-2-
dc.identifier.pmid25809064-
dc.identifier.hkuros242873-
dc.identifier.volume39-
dc.identifier.issue8-
dc.identifier.spage1951-
dc.identifier.epage1958-
dc.publisher.placeUnited States-

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