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Article: The likelihood of achieving quantified road safety targets: A binary logistic regression model for possible factors

TitleThe likelihood of achieving quantified road safety targets: A binary logistic regression model for possible factors
Authors
KeywordsRoad safety target
Road fatality
Binary logistic regression
Level of ambition
Interaction effect
Issue Date2014
PublisherElsevier Ltd. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/336/description#description
Citation
Accident Analysis & Prevention, 2014, v. 73, p. 242-251 How to Cite?
AbstractIn past several decades, many countries have set quantified road safety targets to motivate transport authorities to develop systematic road safety strategies and measures and facilitate the achievement of continuous road safety improvement. Studies have been conducted to evaluate the association between the setting of quantified road safety targets and road fatality reduction, in both the short and long run, by comparing road fatalities before and after the implementation of a quantified road safety target. However, not much work has been done to evaluate whether the quantified road safety targets are actually achieved. In this study, we used a binary logistic regression model to examine the factors – including vehicle ownership, fatality rate, and national income, in addition to level of ambition and duration of target – that contribute to a target’s success. We analyzed 55 quantified road safety targets set by 29 countries from 1981 to 2009, and the results indicate that targets that are in progress and with lower level of ambitions had a higher likelihood of eventually being achieved. Moreover, possible interaction effects on the association between level of ambition and the likelihood of success are also revealed.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/206788
ISSN
2017 Impact Factor: 2.584
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 1.109
ISI Accession Number ID

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorSze, NN-
dc.contributor.authorWong, SC-
dc.contributor.authorLee, CY-
dc.date.accessioned2014-12-02T09:20:12Z-
dc.date.available2014-12-02T09:20:12Z-
dc.date.issued2014-
dc.identifier.citationAccident Analysis & Prevention, 2014, v. 73, p. 242-251-
dc.identifier.issn0001-4575-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/206788-
dc.description.abstractIn past several decades, many countries have set quantified road safety targets to motivate transport authorities to develop systematic road safety strategies and measures and facilitate the achievement of continuous road safety improvement. Studies have been conducted to evaluate the association between the setting of quantified road safety targets and road fatality reduction, in both the short and long run, by comparing road fatalities before and after the implementation of a quantified road safety target. However, not much work has been done to evaluate whether the quantified road safety targets are actually achieved. In this study, we used a binary logistic regression model to examine the factors – including vehicle ownership, fatality rate, and national income, in addition to level of ambition and duration of target – that contribute to a target’s success. We analyzed 55 quantified road safety targets set by 29 countries from 1981 to 2009, and the results indicate that targets that are in progress and with lower level of ambitions had a higher likelihood of eventually being achieved. Moreover, possible interaction effects on the association between level of ambition and the likelihood of success are also revealed.-
dc.languageeng-
dc.publisherElsevier Ltd. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/336/description#description-
dc.relation.ispartofAccident Analysis & Prevention-
dc.rightsNOTICE: this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Accident Analysis & Prevention. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Accident Analysis & Prevention, 2014, v. 73, p. 242-251. DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2014.09.012-
dc.rightsThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.-
dc.subjectRoad safety target-
dc.subjectRoad fatality-
dc.subjectBinary logistic regression-
dc.subjectLevel of ambition-
dc.subjectInteraction effect-
dc.titleThe likelihood of achieving quantified road safety targets: A binary logistic regression model for possible factors-
dc.typeArticle-
dc.identifier.emailWong, SC: hhecwsc@hku.hk-
dc.identifier.authorityWong, SC=rp00191-
dc.description.naturepostprint-
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.aap.2014.09.012-
dc.identifier.pmid25255417-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-84907909029-
dc.identifier.hkuros241526-
dc.identifier.volume73-
dc.identifier.spage242-
dc.identifier.epage251-
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000346453600029-
dc.publisher.placeUnited Kingdom-

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