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Article: Inferring patterns of influenza transmission in swine from multiple streams of surveillance data.

TitleInferring patterns of influenza transmission in swine from multiple streams of surveillance data.
Authors
Issue Date2013
Citation
Proceedings of the Royal Society Biological Sciences, 2013, v. 280 n. 1762, p. 20130872 How to Cite?
AbstractSwine populations are known to be an important source of new human strains of influenza A, including those responsible for global pandemics. Yet our knowledge of the epidemiology of influenza in swine is dismayingly poor, as highlighted by the emergence of the 2009 pandemic strain and the paucity of data describing its origins. Here, we analyse a unique dataset arising from surveillance of swine influenza at a Hong Kong abattoir from 1998 to 2010. We introduce a state-space model that estimates disease exposure histories by joint inference from multiple modes of surveillance, integrating both virological and serological data. We find that an observed decrease in virus isolation rates is not due to a reduction in the regional prevalence of influenza. Instead, a more likely explanation is increased infection of swine in production farms, creating greater immunity to disease early in life. Consistent with this, we find that the weekly risk of exposure on farms equals or exceeds the exposure risk during transport to slaughter. We discuss potential causes for these patterns, including competition between influenza strains and shifts in the Chinese pork industry, and suggest opportunities to improve knowledge and reduce prevalence of influenza in the region.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/206174
ISI Accession Number ID

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorStrelioff, CCen_US
dc.contributor.authorDhanasekaran, Ven_US
dc.contributor.authorRiley, Sen_US
dc.contributor.authorGuan, Yen_US
dc.contributor.authorPeiris, JSMen_US
dc.contributor.authorLloyd-Smith, JOen_US
dc.date.accessioned2014-10-20T13:39:03Z-
dc.date.available2014-10-20T13:39:03Z-
dc.date.issued2013en_US
dc.identifier.citationProceedings of the Royal Society Biological Sciences, 2013, v. 280 n. 1762, p. 20130872en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/206174-
dc.description.abstractSwine populations are known to be an important source of new human strains of influenza A, including those responsible for global pandemics. Yet our knowledge of the epidemiology of influenza in swine is dismayingly poor, as highlighted by the emergence of the 2009 pandemic strain and the paucity of data describing its origins. Here, we analyse a unique dataset arising from surveillance of swine influenza at a Hong Kong abattoir from 1998 to 2010. We introduce a state-space model that estimates disease exposure histories by joint inference from multiple modes of surveillance, integrating both virological and serological data. We find that an observed decrease in virus isolation rates is not due to a reduction in the regional prevalence of influenza. Instead, a more likely explanation is increased infection of swine in production farms, creating greater immunity to disease early in life. Consistent with this, we find that the weekly risk of exposure on farms equals or exceeds the exposure risk during transport to slaughter. We discuss potential causes for these patterns, including competition between influenza strains and shifts in the Chinese pork industry, and suggest opportunities to improve knowledge and reduce prevalence of influenza in the region.en_US
dc.languageengen_US
dc.relation.ispartofProceedings of the Royal Society Biological Sciencesen_US
dc.titleInferring patterns of influenza transmission in swine from multiple streams of surveillance data.en_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.identifier.emailRiley, S: sriley@hkucc.hku.hken_US
dc.identifier.emailGuan, Y: yguan@hkucc.hku.hken_US
dc.identifier.emailPeiris, JSM: malik@hkucc.hku.hken_US
dc.identifier.authorityRiley, S=rp00511en_US
dc.identifier.authorityGuan, Y=rp00397en_US
dc.identifier.authorityPeiris, JSM=rp00410en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1098/rspb.2013.0872en_US
dc.identifier.pmid23658205-
dc.identifier.hkuros240916en_US
dc.identifier.volume280en_US
dc.identifier.issue1762en_US
dc.identifier.spage20130872en_US
dc.identifier.epage20130872en_US
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000319385100020-

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