File Download
  Links for fulltext
     (May Require Subscription)
Supplementary

Article: On the psychology of self-prediction: Consideration of situational barriers to intended actions

TitleOn the psychology of self-prediction: Consideration of situational barriers to intended actions
Authors
Issue Date2014
PublisherSociety for Judgment and Decision Making. The Journal's web site is located at http://journal.sjdm.org/
Citation
Judgment and Decision Making, 2014, v. 9 n. 3, p. 207-225 How to Cite?
AbstractWhen people predict their future behavior, they tend to place too much weight on their current intentions, which produces an optimistic bias for behaviors associated with currently strong intentions. More realistic self-predictions require greater sensitivity to situational barriers, such as obstacles or competing demands, that may interfere with the translation of current intentions into future behavior. We consider three reasons why people may not adjust sufficiently for such barriers. First, self-predictions may focus exclusively on current intentions, ignoring potential barriers altogether. We test this possibility, in three studies, with manipulations that draw greater attention to barriers. Second, barriers may be discounted in the self-prediction process. We test this possibility by comparing prospective and retrospective ratings of the impact of barriers on the target behavior. Neither possibility was supported in these tests, or in a further test examining whether an optimally weighted statistical model could improve on the accuracy of self-predictions by placing greater weight on anticipated situational barriers. Instead, the evidence supports a third possibility: Even when they acknowledge that situational factors can affect the likelihood of carrying out an intended behavior, people do not adequately moderate the weight placed on their current intentions when predicting their future behavior.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/204904
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 1.856
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 1.503

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorPoon, CSKen_US
dc.contributor.authorKoehler, DJen_US
dc.contributor.authorBuehler, Ren_US
dc.date.accessioned2014-09-20T01:04:38Z-
dc.date.available2014-09-20T01:04:38Z-
dc.date.issued2014en_US
dc.identifier.citationJudgment and Decision Making, 2014, v. 9 n. 3, p. 207-225en_US
dc.identifier.issn1930-2975-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/204904-
dc.description.abstractWhen people predict their future behavior, they tend to place too much weight on their current intentions, which produces an optimistic bias for behaviors associated with currently strong intentions. More realistic self-predictions require greater sensitivity to situational barriers, such as obstacles or competing demands, that may interfere with the translation of current intentions into future behavior. We consider three reasons why people may not adjust sufficiently for such barriers. First, self-predictions may focus exclusively on current intentions, ignoring potential barriers altogether. We test this possibility, in three studies, with manipulations that draw greater attention to barriers. Second, barriers may be discounted in the self-prediction process. We test this possibility by comparing prospective and retrospective ratings of the impact of barriers on the target behavior. Neither possibility was supported in these tests, or in a further test examining whether an optimally weighted statistical model could improve on the accuracy of self-predictions by placing greater weight on anticipated situational barriers. Instead, the evidence supports a third possibility: Even when they acknowledge that situational factors can affect the likelihood of carrying out an intended behavior, people do not adequately moderate the weight placed on their current intentions when predicting their future behavior.en_US
dc.languageengen_US
dc.publisherSociety for Judgment and Decision Making. The Journal's web site is located at http://journal.sjdm.org/-
dc.relation.ispartofJudgment and Decision Makingen_US
dc.rightsCreative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License-
dc.titleOn the psychology of self-prediction: Consideration of situational barriers to intended actionsen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.identifier.emailPoon, CSK: cskpoon@hku.hken_US
dc.identifier.authorityPoon, CSK=rp00613en_US
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-84901652748-
dc.identifier.hkuros236229en_US
dc.identifier.volume9en_US
dc.identifier.issue3-
dc.identifier.spage207en_US
dc.identifier.epage225en_US
dc.publisher.placeUnited States-

Export via OAI-PMH Interface in XML Formats


OR


Export to Other Non-XML Formats