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Article: Population trend and vulnerability of humpback dolphins, Sousa chinensis, off Taiwan west coast

TitlePopulation trend and vulnerability of humpback dolphins, Sousa chinensis, off Taiwan west coast
Authors
Issue Date2014
Citation
Endangered Species Research, 2014, v. 26 n. 2, p. 147-159 How to Cite?
AbstractPredictive modeling of population trends can indicate the rate of population decline and risk of extinction, providing quantitative means of assessing conservation status and threats. Our study tests the rate of population change and risk of extinction of the Indo-Pacific humpback dolphin Sousa chinensis off the west coast of Taiwan, the only humpback dolphin population classified as Critically Endangered (CR) by the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Under the most optimistic assumptions, almost 60% of simulations (out of 250 replications × 5000 iterations) predicted that population decline would exceed 80% within 3 generations, while the mean estimate of population decline within 1 generation was >50% of the current population numbers. Status classification performed using IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria Version 3.1 supported previous CR classification, while risk assessment models that factored in anthropogenic impacts further increased the estimated extinction risk. At an adult survival rate of 0.95, a modeled increment of annual bycatch rate by 1% of population size increased the probability of extinction within 100 years by 7.5%; this increase was lower at a higher adult survival rate. The estimated extinction risk was greatest under the impact of habitat loss, reaching a hazardous level when habitat carrying capacity dropped to less than 50%, indicating that habitat fragmentation and alteration of coastal environments pose the greatest threat to this population, even if the cumulative sum of fragmented patches of habitat may superficially appear to be large.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/199547

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorHuang, Sen_US
dc.contributor.authorChang, Wen_US
dc.contributor.authorKarczmarski, Len_US
dc.date.accessioned2014-07-22T01:22:46Z-
dc.date.available2014-07-22T01:22:46Z-
dc.date.issued2014-
dc.identifier.citationEndangered Species Research, 2014, v. 26 n. 2, p. 147-159en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/199547-
dc.description.abstractPredictive modeling of population trends can indicate the rate of population decline and risk of extinction, providing quantitative means of assessing conservation status and threats. Our study tests the rate of population change and risk of extinction of the Indo-Pacific humpback dolphin Sousa chinensis off the west coast of Taiwan, the only humpback dolphin population classified as Critically Endangered (CR) by the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Under the most optimistic assumptions, almost 60% of simulations (out of 250 replications × 5000 iterations) predicted that population decline would exceed 80% within 3 generations, while the mean estimate of population decline within 1 generation was >50% of the current population numbers. Status classification performed using IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria Version 3.1 supported previous CR classification, while risk assessment models that factored in anthropogenic impacts further increased the estimated extinction risk. At an adult survival rate of 0.95, a modeled increment of annual bycatch rate by 1% of population size increased the probability of extinction within 100 years by 7.5%; this increase was lower at a higher adult survival rate. The estimated extinction risk was greatest under the impact of habitat loss, reaching a hazardous level when habitat carrying capacity dropped to less than 50%, indicating that habitat fragmentation and alteration of coastal environments pose the greatest threat to this population, even if the cumulative sum of fragmented patches of habitat may superficially appear to be large.en_US
dc.languageengen_US
dc.relation.ispartofEndangered Species Researchen_US
dc.titlePopulation trend and vulnerability of humpback dolphins, Sousa chinensis, off Taiwan west coasten_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.identifier.emailHuang, S: huangsl@hku.hken_US
dc.identifier.emailChang, W: weilung@hku.hken_US
dc.identifier.emailKarczmarski, L: leszek@hku.hken_US
dc.identifier.authorityKarczmarski, L=rp00713en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.3354/esr00619en_US
dc.identifier.hkuros231287en_US

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