The effects of age structures on asset prices : evidence from 18 OECD countries

Abstract

In Japan, the turning point for its housing and stock prices at the beginning of the 1990s coincided with the turning point for its middle-aged-to-younger population ratio. In the United States, the financial crisis in 2007 also coincided with the turning point for the same ratio. Were these mere coincidences or was there a causal relationship between the middle-aged-to-younger population ratios and asset prices? In this study, the author proposed two models, namely the income and investment channels, and six hypotheses. The empirical evidence from 18 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries from 1970 to 2010 showed that the middle-aged-to-younger population ratio influenced stock prices through both the income and investment channels and the housing prices mainly through the income channel. The income model suggested that the growth in the middle-aged-to-younger population ratio increased the average national income and, hence, asset prices. The investment model allowed individuals to take advantage of this trend in asset appreciation by saving and investing. As a result, asset prices went up. These discoveries might help us understand the causal relationship between the middle-aged-to-younger population ratio and asset prices and, in the long run, the co-movement of stock and housing prices.