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Conference Paper: Optimal time delay in the control of epidemic

TitleOptimal time delay in the control of epidemic
Authors
Issue Date2009
Citation
Studies In Computational Intelligence, 2009, v. 236, p. 253-260 How to Cite?
AbstractA mathematical model to address the efficiency of the isolation and quarantine strategies in the containment of epidemics is constructed based on the SIR model with time delay. The model is investigated with numerical simulation that demonstrates the importance of quick measure in identifying the infected and the subsequent quarantine of his/her neighbors. The model also provides a theoretical framework for the estimation of the cost involved in the containment of the epidemics. Based on a general estimate of the cost, we demonstrate the procedure for the calculation of the optimal set of parameters in our isolation and quarantine strategy through numerical simulation on a model social network. We find an important parameter π which is a combination of several general parameters for the SIR model so that when π > 0, the isolation and quarantine strategy will fail to contain the outbreak. The procedure outlined provides some general guidance in the selection of strategies in the containment of real epidemics, where the balance between social cost and risk must be carefully handled. © 2009 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/179604
ISSN
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 0.187
References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorWang, Zen_US
dc.contributor.authorSzeto, KYen_US
dc.contributor.authorLeung, FCCen_US
dc.date.accessioned2012-12-19T10:00:09Z-
dc.date.available2012-12-19T10:00:09Z-
dc.date.issued2009en_US
dc.identifier.citationStudies In Computational Intelligence, 2009, v. 236, p. 253-260en_US
dc.identifier.issn1860-949Xen_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/179604-
dc.description.abstractA mathematical model to address the efficiency of the isolation and quarantine strategies in the containment of epidemics is constructed based on the SIR model with time delay. The model is investigated with numerical simulation that demonstrates the importance of quick measure in identifying the infected and the subsequent quarantine of his/her neighbors. The model also provides a theoretical framework for the estimation of the cost involved in the containment of the epidemics. Based on a general estimate of the cost, we demonstrate the procedure for the calculation of the optimal set of parameters in our isolation and quarantine strategy through numerical simulation on a model social network. We find an important parameter π which is a combination of several general parameters for the SIR model so that when π > 0, the isolation and quarantine strategy will fail to contain the outbreak. The procedure outlined provides some general guidance in the selection of strategies in the containment of real epidemics, where the balance between social cost and risk must be carefully handled. © 2009 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.en_US
dc.languageengen_US
dc.relation.ispartofStudies in Computational Intelligenceen_US
dc.titleOptimal time delay in the control of epidemicen_US
dc.typeConference_Paperen_US
dc.identifier.emailLeung, FCC: fcleung@hkucc.hku.hken_US
dc.identifier.authorityLeung, FCC=rp00731en_US
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltexten_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/978-3-642-03211-0_21en_US
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-70349985251en_US
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-70349985251&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_US
dc.identifier.volume236en_US
dc.identifier.spage253en_US
dc.identifier.epage260en_US
dc.publisher.placeGermanyen_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridWang, Z=14033548900en_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridSzeto, KY=7006865792en_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridLeung, FCC=7103078633en_US
dc.identifier.citeulike11861581-

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