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Article: Using Tocher's curve to convert subjective quantile-estimates into a probability distribution function

TitleUsing Tocher's curve to convert subjective quantile-estimates into a probability distribution function
Authors
Issue Date1999
PublisherTaylor & Francis Inc. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.tandf.co.uk/journals/titles/0740817x.asp
Citation
IIE Transactions (Institute Of Industrial Engineers), 1999, v. 31 n. 3, p. 245-254 How to Cite?
AbstractOne standard approach for estimating a subjective distribution is to elicit subjective quantiles from a human expert. However, most decision-making models require a random variable's moments and/or distribution function instead of its quantiles. In the literature little attention has been given to the problem of converting a given set of subjective quantiles into moments and/or a distribution function. We show that this conversion problem is far from trivial, and that the most commonly used conversion procedure often produces large errors. An alternative procedure using `Tocher's curve' is proposed, and its performance is evaluated with a wide variety of test distributions. The method is shown to be more accurate than a commonly used procedure.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/177873
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 1.463
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 1.293
ISI Accession Number ID
References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorLau, HSen_US
dc.contributor.authorLau, AHLen_US
dc.contributor.authorKottas, JFen_US
dc.date.accessioned2012-12-19T09:40:39Z-
dc.date.available2012-12-19T09:40:39Z-
dc.date.issued1999en_US
dc.identifier.citationIIE Transactions (Institute Of Industrial Engineers), 1999, v. 31 n. 3, p. 245-254en_US
dc.identifier.issn0740-817Xen_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/177873-
dc.description.abstractOne standard approach for estimating a subjective distribution is to elicit subjective quantiles from a human expert. However, most decision-making models require a random variable's moments and/or distribution function instead of its quantiles. In the literature little attention has been given to the problem of converting a given set of subjective quantiles into moments and/or a distribution function. We show that this conversion problem is far from trivial, and that the most commonly used conversion procedure often produces large errors. An alternative procedure using `Tocher's curve' is proposed, and its performance is evaluated with a wide variety of test distributions. The method is shown to be more accurate than a commonly used procedure.en_US
dc.languageengen_US
dc.publisherTaylor & Francis Inc. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.tandf.co.uk/journals/titles/0740817x.aspen_US
dc.relation.ispartofIIE Transactions (Institute of Industrial Engineers)en_US
dc.titleUsing Tocher's curve to convert subjective quantile-estimates into a probability distribution functionen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.identifier.emailLau, AHL: ahlau@business.hku.hken_US
dc.identifier.authorityLau, AHL=rp01072en_US
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltexten_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1023/A:1007649822390en_US
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-0032671876en_US
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-0032671876&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_US
dc.identifier.volume31en_US
dc.identifier.issue3en_US
dc.identifier.spage245en_US
dc.identifier.epage254en_US
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000081297300005-
dc.publisher.placeUnited Statesen_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridLau, HS=7201497264en_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridLau, AHL=7202626080en_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridKottas, JF=6701582049en_US

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