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Article: Improved moment-estimation formulas using more than three subjective fractiles

TitleImproved moment-estimation formulas using more than three subjective fractiles
Authors
KeywordsMean Estimation
Moment Estimation
Standard Deviation Estimation
Subjective Fractiles
Issue Date1998
PublisherINFORMS. The Journal's web site is located at http://mansci.pubs.informs.org
Citation
Management Science, 1998, v. 44 n. 3, p. 346-351 How to Cite?
AbstractPERT-type subjective estimations are used in many stochastic decision models to estimate the random variables' mean and standard deviation (s.d.). The approach is based on the beta-distribution assumption; also, most PERT-type formulas use only three estimated fractiles. We point out that: (i) it is desirable to consider a substantially richer set of distributions than the beta in developing PERT-type formulas; (ii) it may be beneficial to use more than three fractile-estimates in PERT-type formulas. We then develop formulas for estimating the mean and s.d. that are based on a substantially richer set of distributions than the beta and that use more than three estimated fractiles. These formulas perform better than the best currently-available formulas when the subjective distribution is not restricted to be beta.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/177868
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 2.741
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 4.384
References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorLau, HSen_US
dc.contributor.authorLau, AHLen_US
dc.contributor.authorHo, CJen_US
dc.date.accessioned2012-12-19T09:40:37Z-
dc.date.available2012-12-19T09:40:37Z-
dc.date.issued1998en_US
dc.identifier.citationManagement Science, 1998, v. 44 n. 3, p. 346-351en_US
dc.identifier.issn0025-1909en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/177868-
dc.description.abstractPERT-type subjective estimations are used in many stochastic decision models to estimate the random variables' mean and standard deviation (s.d.). The approach is based on the beta-distribution assumption; also, most PERT-type formulas use only three estimated fractiles. We point out that: (i) it is desirable to consider a substantially richer set of distributions than the beta in developing PERT-type formulas; (ii) it may be beneficial to use more than three fractile-estimates in PERT-type formulas. We then develop formulas for estimating the mean and s.d. that are based on a substantially richer set of distributions than the beta and that use more than three estimated fractiles. These formulas perform better than the best currently-available formulas when the subjective distribution is not restricted to be beta.en_US
dc.languageengen_US
dc.publisherINFORMS. The Journal's web site is located at http://mansci.pubs.informs.orgen_US
dc.relation.ispartofManagement Scienceen_US
dc.subjectMean Estimationen_US
dc.subjectMoment Estimationen_US
dc.subjectStandard Deviation Estimationen_US
dc.subjectSubjective Fractilesen_US
dc.titleImproved moment-estimation formulas using more than three subjective fractilesen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.identifier.emailLau, AHL: ahlau@business.hku.hken_US
dc.identifier.authorityLau, AHL=rp01072en_US
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltexten_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1287/mnsc.44.3.346-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-0032024926en_US
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-0032024926&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_US
dc.identifier.volume44en_US
dc.identifier.issue3en_US
dc.identifier.spage346en_US
dc.identifier.epage351en_US
dc.publisher.placeUnited Statesen_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridLau, HS=7201497264en_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridLau, AHL=7202626080en_US
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridHo, CJ=7404653703en_US

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