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postgraduate thesis: Analytical models for wind power investment

TitleAnalytical models for wind power investment
Authors
Advisors
Advisor(s):Wu, FFZhong, J
Issue Date2011
PublisherThe University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong)
Citation
Cheng, M. [鄭孟剛]. (2011). Analytical models for wind power investment. (Thesis). University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam, Hong Kong SAR. Retrieved from http://dx.doi.org/10.5353/th_b4775272
AbstractWind power generation has experienced an explosive growth worldwide. It is a promising renewable energy source to countries that are short of fossil fuels, e.g. China. While wind power is a distinctive direction to go for, it is still necessary to examine the rationale behind such investing mania, and this thesis analyzes the issue by collectively investment modeling. For investment analysis, it is necessary to first identify the relevant market background before inferring to any analytical model. Chapter 2 identifies a number of wind power investment scenarios in accordance to modern electricity market regime, primarily American and European structures. Among them, two main scenarios are investigated and modeled subsequently: fixed tariff wind power project invested by independent power producer and wind power project undertaken by utility. It has to be emphasized that different market scenarios would lead to different modeling methodologies for best representing the reality. Wind power is intermittent and uncertain. One way to describe the probabilistic energy production is by statistical characterization of wind power in a period of time. Chapter 3 presents a standalone analytical model of the wind power probability distribution and its higher order statistics. Large-scale deployment of wind power would influence power system in unprecedented ways. High penetration wind power poses a need of refinement to existing methodologies on production costing and reliability evaluation. The applications of the probabilistic wind power model to these topics are outlined in this chapter. In Chapter 4, investment of fixed tariff wind power project is analyzed. Operation of wind farm is very passive and as long as wind keeps blowing, such wind power investment has minimal risk in annual revenue. The low-risk profile facilitates debt financing. This leads to the attempt to manipulate the project capital structure to maximize the project levered value. Yet the default probability is raised and associated with a subjective value of default probability there is a value-at-risk debt level. I therefore propose an optimization formulation to maximize the wind power project valuation with debt as decision variable subject to the value-at-risk debt constraint. Apart from independent wind power producers, many policy and market factors driving wind power development are actually put on the utility side, e.g. Renewable Portfolio Standard (Renewable Energy Target) in U.S. (Europe) and Green Power Programs. It implies that utility has to have wind power (or other renewable) capacity ready by a certain date. In practice, utility may take action earlier if conditions are favorable or optimal. The conditions considered here are fossil fuel prices or in more general setting, electricity contract prices. Define the total fuel cost saving from conventional units as the benefit of wind power. If fuel prices are high enough, substituting load demand by wind energy is profitable, vice versa. The investment decision is analogous to premature exercising of an American option, in which the wind power project is modeled as real option. Chapter 5 offers detailed formulation of this idea.
DegreeDoctor of Philosophy
SubjectWind power.
Electric power production.
Dept/ProgramElectrical and Electronic Engineering

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.advisorWu, FF-
dc.contributor.advisorZhong, J-
dc.contributor.authorCheng, Mang-kong.-
dc.contributor.author鄭孟剛.-
dc.date.issued2011-
dc.identifier.citationCheng, M. [鄭孟剛]. (2011). Analytical models for wind power investment. (Thesis). University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam, Hong Kong SAR. Retrieved from http://dx.doi.org/10.5353/th_b4775272-
dc.description.abstractWind power generation has experienced an explosive growth worldwide. It is a promising renewable energy source to countries that are short of fossil fuels, e.g. China. While wind power is a distinctive direction to go for, it is still necessary to examine the rationale behind such investing mania, and this thesis analyzes the issue by collectively investment modeling. For investment analysis, it is necessary to first identify the relevant market background before inferring to any analytical model. Chapter 2 identifies a number of wind power investment scenarios in accordance to modern electricity market regime, primarily American and European structures. Among them, two main scenarios are investigated and modeled subsequently: fixed tariff wind power project invested by independent power producer and wind power project undertaken by utility. It has to be emphasized that different market scenarios would lead to different modeling methodologies for best representing the reality. Wind power is intermittent and uncertain. One way to describe the probabilistic energy production is by statistical characterization of wind power in a period of time. Chapter 3 presents a standalone analytical model of the wind power probability distribution and its higher order statistics. Large-scale deployment of wind power would influence power system in unprecedented ways. High penetration wind power poses a need of refinement to existing methodologies on production costing and reliability evaluation. The applications of the probabilistic wind power model to these topics are outlined in this chapter. In Chapter 4, investment of fixed tariff wind power project is analyzed. Operation of wind farm is very passive and as long as wind keeps blowing, such wind power investment has minimal risk in annual revenue. The low-risk profile facilitates debt financing. This leads to the attempt to manipulate the project capital structure to maximize the project levered value. Yet the default probability is raised and associated with a subjective value of default probability there is a value-at-risk debt level. I therefore propose an optimization formulation to maximize the wind power project valuation with debt as decision variable subject to the value-at-risk debt constraint. Apart from independent wind power producers, many policy and market factors driving wind power development are actually put on the utility side, e.g. Renewable Portfolio Standard (Renewable Energy Target) in U.S. (Europe) and Green Power Programs. It implies that utility has to have wind power (or other renewable) capacity ready by a certain date. In practice, utility may take action earlier if conditions are favorable or optimal. The conditions considered here are fossil fuel prices or in more general setting, electricity contract prices. Define the total fuel cost saving from conventional units as the benefit of wind power. If fuel prices are high enough, substituting load demand by wind energy is profitable, vice versa. The investment decision is analogous to premature exercising of an American option, in which the wind power project is modeled as real option. Chapter 5 offers detailed formulation of this idea.-
dc.languageeng-
dc.publisherThe University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong)-
dc.relation.ispartofHKU Theses Online (HKUTO)-
dc.rightsThe author retains all proprietary rights, (such as patent rights) and the right to use in future works.-
dc.rightsCreative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License-
dc.source.urihttp://hub.hku.hk/bib/B47752725-
dc.subject.lcshWind power.-
dc.subject.lcshElectric power production.-
dc.titleAnalytical models for wind power investment-
dc.typePG_Thesis-
dc.identifier.hkulb4775272-
dc.description.thesisnameDoctor of Philosophy-
dc.description.thesislevelDoctoral-
dc.description.thesisdisciplineElectrical and Electronic Engineering-
dc.description.naturepublished_or_final_version-
dc.identifier.doi10.5353/th_b4775272-
dc.date.hkucongregation2012-

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