A system dynamics model for the sustainable land use planning and development

Abstract

This paper applies a system dynamics model for the sustainable land use and urban development in Hong Kong. The model is used to test the outcomes of development policy scenarios and make forecasts. It consists of five sub-systems including population, economy, housing, transport and urban/developed land, respectively. Two distinctively different development schemes concerning urban population density are simulated by the model and the findings are undertaken to verify the model through comparison with historical data and sensitivity check. The forecast timeframe is then expanded from 40 years to 300 years, providing a simulation period long enough to observe and study the "limits to growth" phenomenon and the impacts on development potential of Hong Kong. The modelling results are directly useful to compare different dynamic consequences brought by various policies and decisions, and are thus of great significance to achieving the goal of sustainable land use. © 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.